This is the second article in RotoWire's annual series on fantasy football sleepers and breakout players, where we're kicking things off with a survey of breakout candidates for 2025, dividing players into three main groups. Last week, we looked at second-year pros, including Drake Maye, Tyrone Tracy, Keon Coleman and Theo Johnson. Now, it's time to list third-year pros who may be on the cusp of fantasy stardom. (The third and final article, coming July 28, will focus on players benefiting from new teams and/or coaches.)
This initial series of three articles is intended as a broad survey of viable breakout candidates, not necessarily as a "draft these guys" list. As the season approaches, we'll have another series of articles that hones in on a smaller group of players from the large initial lists, highlighting the QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs with the most potential to vastly outperform their acquisition cost. Keep in mind that we're looking for players who have some chance to crush their ADPs, not the guys that are most likely to slightly outperform it.
You may notice that some of the breakout candidates fit multiple categories. Maye, for example, is a second-year pro under a new coaching staff. In these cases, we'll put the player in whichever category carries more weight (by my subjective estimation). You'll find Maye in the article on second-year pros, because I think his continued personal progression as a talented young player is more relevant for his breakout case than New England's likely upgrade in coaching staff. Both factors help, of course, which explains why Maye is among my favorite NFL fantasy football sleepers for 2025.
Quarterbacks
QB Bryce Young (Round 13 ADP)
This is a make-or-break season for Young, who should now benefit from scheme familiarity, a solid offensive line and an incoming top-10 pick at wide receiver (Tetairoa McMillan). Young was much better after returning from a suspension last year, but it wasn't until Weeks 16-18 that he put up strong numbers (7.0 YPA, 64.8 percent completion rate, 7:0 TD:INT, 2-1 record) by starting QB standards. In Weeks 8-15, he was better than he had been as a rookie but still below average for a starter — 6.5 YPA, 60.6 completion percentage, 8:5 TD:INT, 2-5 record.
The question now is whether those final three weeks were sustainable progress or just a blip. If it's the former, Young scrambles often enough — 245 yards, six rushing TDs last year — to push for low/mid-end QB1 value. If it's the latter, he could be benched by October or November.
QB Anthony Richardson (Round 17 ADP)
The odds are against Richardson succeeding at this point, especially in Indianapolis, but he's at least worth mentioning as an all-ceiling, no-floor QB3 pick for deep and superflex leagues. The rushing stats make him startable as a QB2 whenever he's in the lineup, with upside for QB1 fantasy value if he can improve his completion percentage to even the low 60s and cut back on interceptions some. Richardson is only 23 years old, born three days before 2025 first overall pick Cam Ward.
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Running Backs
RB Tyjae Spears (Round 11 ADP)
Tony Pollard remains a problem, as he's about 15 pounds heavier than Spears and has a better track record of durability. Spears missed five games last year, notably suffering two concussions, but he went wild in Weeks 15-17 with 261 total yards and four TDs (before missing Week 18). While he may never be a 20-carry back, Spears could get something like 12 carries and a handful of catches per week if Pollard were ever to miss time. Pollard might also be an in-season trade candidate if Spears is playing well and the Titans don't have strong odds to make the playoffs.
RB Jaylen Warren (Round 9 ADP)
I'm cheating on this one. Warren, 26, is entering his fourth pro season, but it'll be his first time sharing a backfield with someone other than Najee Harris. While it's certainly possible Kaleb Johnson proves to be better than Harris, there's also a 'bust' scenario for Johnson where the Steelers don't trust him and instead task Warren with a huge role.
RB Zach Charbonnet (Round 10 ADP)
A full breakout for Charbonnet probably requires an injury to Kenneth Walker, who has a breakout argument of his own (covered in our next article) under new Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. The appeal with Charbonnet is that his combination of size, passing-down skills and durability allows him to handle huge workloads when Walker isn't available. Charbonnet isn't the most explosive runner, but he's averaging 4.2 yards per carry through two seasons — compared to Walker's 4.0 YPC — and he scored six touchdowns in the six games Walker missed last year.
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Wide Receivers
WR Rashee Rice (? ADP)
Rice figures to be suspended for multiple games, possibly at the beginning of the season, after settling his legal case in July with five years of deferred probation and 30 days in jail. There's no precedent to know if Rice will be suspended for 2-3 games or more like 6-8, but either way, he should be back in the lineup and piling up receptions long before fantasy playoffs begin. He caught 24 passes for 288 yards and two TDs over the first three weeks of last season, showing growth from an impressive rookie year until an ACL tear in Week 4 brought his campaign to an early end. Rice was back healthy for spring practices, with coach Andy Reid saying in June that the 25-year-old will be a full go for training camp.
WR Jordan Addison (Round 6 ADP)
Addison collapsed with the rest of Minnesota's offense in Week 18 and the playoffs, but he was on a roll before that, with seven TDs and 8.6 targets per game over a seven-game stretch that included receiving lines of 8-162-1 and 8-133-3. His target volume spiked compared to his first season and a half in the league, even though Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson both played every contest in the seven-game run. If J.J. McCarthy isn't a bust, Addison could pick up where he left off in November/December and sustain similar numbers over a full year (or at least most of one, after he's likely suspended).
- WR Josh Downs (Round 7 ADP)
Downs averaged 7.3 receptions last year in the seven games where Joe Flacco took a majority of snaps. That's probably not sustainable for him over a larger sample even in good conditions, but even with his size/slot limitations, Downs might be able to wrangle five or six catches per game if he ends up playing with Daniel Jones for most of the year. It's harder to envision upside with Anthony Richardson, whose skillset and tendencies wouldn't seem to bode well for Downs' volume even if Richardson were to improve his passing considerably.
WR Jayden Reed (Round 8 ADP)
Reed is one of the better slot receivers in the league, making big plays as both a receiver and ballcarrier, yet his target volume went the wrong direction in 2024 after a promising rookie campaign in 2023. He had 75 targets in 17 regular-season games last year, topping six targets in a single game just once (Week 4) and averaging a mere 3.7 per game in Weeks 7-18. He was still efficient, averaging 11.4 yards per target for the season and 10.1 YPT amidst the volume slump in Weeks 7-18, but the Packers became a run-first offense that spread the ball around when Josh Jacobs wasn't carrying it.
It didn't help that Reed was rarely on the field in two-wide formations, although the bigger problem was his modest target rate per route, with 16.8 percent representing a nosedive from 23.1 percent in 2023. He seems capable of handling more volume, given the frequency of big plays and his impressive work with the ball in his hands, but there is some risk that the Packers don't change his role or that Reed's development is already maxed out (he's 25 years old, having entered the league at 23).
WR Marvin Mims (Round 11 ADP)
Mims never once played more than 30 snaps on offense last season, but he nonetheless broke through late in the year, scoring six touchdowns over the final seven weeks of the regular season while averaging 4.0 catches for 62.0 yards on 4.7 targets per game. The secret was an influx of quick passes and schemed touches, in addition to the occasional downfield shots Mims had been getting since his rookie year. The efficiency (13.2 YPT) was far from sustainable, especially with so many of his catches coming near/behind the line of scrimmage, but it was nonetheless encouraging to see Mims diversify his contributions after mostly being a return specialist and depth receiver for the first season and a half of his career.
The next step is to become a full-time player on offense, or at least close to it, with one positive sign in that direction being his career-high 69 percent snap share in January's playoff loss at Buffalo. There's risk Mims ends up in a rotation again, but there's also real upside for fantasy value if he locks down the No. 2 WR job across from Courtland Sutton. Keep in mind that Mims is no fringe prospect. He twice led the Big 12 in yards per reception, and he was a second-round pick in 2023 after running a 4.38 40. He's only 23 years old, and already a two-time Pro Bowler as a return man.
WR Cedric Tillman (Round 12 ADP)
A 2023 third-round pick, Tillman didn't get much playing time and struggled to earn targets when on the field throughout his rookie season and through Week 6 of last year. Then everything changed in a hurry, with Amari Cooper traded to Buffalo and Jameis Winston replacing an injured Deshaun Watson at quarterback. After getting just five targets over the first six games of the year, Tillman exploded for 8-81-0 on 12 targets in Week 7, followed by 7-99-2 on nine targets in Week 8, 6-75-1 on 11 targets in Week 9, and 3-47-0 on eight targets in Week 11 (after a Week 10 bye). A concussion in Week 12 ended his season early, and it was ultimately Jerry Jeudy who enjoyed a breakout year for Cleveland's otherwise lifeless offense.
Jeudy is back for 2025, but the Browns otherwise are relying on Tillman, a Diontae Johnson revival or a surprise from a Day 3 pick. It's a great opportunity to earn a lot of playing time and a huge route share, although we should note that Tillman's target surge last season was largely driven by team passing volume (46.3 attempts over the four-game stretch) rather than dominance of the available targets — Jeudy, Njoku and Elijah Moore also saw a ton of passes from Winston during that part of the season. The best hope for Tillman to have fantasy value in 2025 would probably be if Joe Flacco ends up starting for a prolonged period.
- WR Dontayvion Wicks (Round 19 ADP)
Selected three rounds after Reed in the draft two years ago, Wicks also had a promising rookie season for the Packers before taking a step back in Year 2. For Wicks, the issues were dropped passes and role fluctuation, while his per-rate target rate (28.4 percent) actually led the team. It was perhaps encouraging that Jordan Love kept throwing to Wicks as he struggled — and that Wicks at least seemed to be open often — but the Packers still seemed to favor Christian Watson (ACL) and Romeo Doubs over Wicks when everyone was healthy. Wicks could get another shot in 2025 if things don't work out for Doubs or first-round pick Matthew Golden — hardly an infallible perimeter WR duo.
Tight Ends
TE Dalton Kincaid (Round 12 ADP)
Kincaid was supposed to break out last year, after catching 73 passes as a rookie and seeing the Bills part ways with target-hog Stefon Diggs during the offseason. Instead, Kincaid got 75 targets in 13 regular-season games (after 91 in 16 games the year before) and saw his catch rate plummet from 80.2 percent in 2023 to 58.7 percent in 2024. He still got quite a few schemed, quick passes, but nearly everything else fell incomplete, including six drops and an unusual number of miscommunications with Josh Allen. It's possible Kincaid is just a first-round bust, but his competence as a rookie and ability to get open suggest there's also a chance we end up looking back on 2024 as a sophomore slump.
TE Brenton Strange (Round 14 ADP)
Strange was a second-round pick (2023) who nobody really thought about until Evan Engram went down early last season. Strange never reached even 400 yards in a season at Penn State, and he'd caught just five passes in 15 NFL games before Week 2 last year. Then, filling in for Engram in Weeks 2-5, he caught 12 of 18 targets for 120 yards and two TDs. When Engram later missed the final four weeks, Strange caught 17 of 21 targets for 155 yards — albeit with 11 of those catches coming in the first of the four games.
The Jaguars then let Engram leave without adding a replacement, potentially setting up Strange for a three-down role. While he won't be one of the passing game's priorities heading into the season, Strange could nonetheless get five or six targets per game if he's almost always on the field. Volume upside beyond that would probably entail Brian Thomas missing time and/or disappointing contributions from Travis Hunter and Dyami Brown.
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