ADP Analysis: Rookie RB and WR Fantasy Football Values

Let's talk about rookie value in Fantasy Football after the 2025 NFL Draft. Twelve SiriusXM hosts recently participated in a fantasy draft, which offers a snapshot of where the market stands — including where it might be off. Below are my thoughts on some mis-priced ADPs, with rookie running backs and receivers leading the conversation.

Check RotoWire's updated top-300 rankings for a live view of how the market is shifting.

Texans Offense: Rookie WRs in the Spotlight

C.J. Stroud's support cast has changed. Stroud jumped from QB17 to QB14 in this draft, and that tracks. The Texans added two WRs in the first three rounds.

Jayden Higgins (WR53) looks like the value. As a second-round pick projected for full-time outside duty, he's the best bet to beat his ADP.

Christian Kirk (WR55) was acquired in a trade. He and Jaylin Noel (WR61) are likely battling for slot duty. With Kirk in a contract year, Noel might see more reps as the season progresses.

I'd draft Noel over Kirk. Even if he's behind him in September, it might not last. 

Packers Wide Receivers: What's the Ceiling?

Draft capital doesn't guarantee targets.

Matthew Golden (WR46) went in Round 1, but has a lot of target competition. He brings speed, but Jordan Love isn't a volume thrower. This price is steep unless the offense opens up.

Jayden Reed (WR40) should keep his slot job. His ADP is fair — he faded late in 2024, and the Packers still don't throw much.

Romeo Doubs (WR67) will need to hold off third-round rookie Savion Williams for a locked-in outside role with red-zone looks. He's a mild value if Green Bay's pass volume holds steady.

Chargers Running Backs: Omarion Hampton's Early Price

Jim Harbaugh might go with a true split — but that's OK. 

Omarion Hampton (RB16) has pedigree and a run-heavy coach. Even if he splits work with Najee Harris, I expect efficiency to tilt in Hampton's favor.

Najee Harris (RB35) is on a $9.35M one-year deal. That's starter money, but not commitment. He'll get touches, but Hampton should lead in value.

Unless Harbaugh goes full committee (which is possible), Hampton looks like a potential top-12 RB in this scheme.
 

Track where both backs land on the team depth chart.

Patriots Backfield: Bet on the Rookie

Goal-line work might be the difference.

TreVeyon Henderson (RB25) isn't huge, but he's dynamic. Stevenson fumbled seven times last season, which could hand Henderson red-zone work.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB40) still makes starter money, but reliability is slipping. His power-running chops could keep him involved, but I wouldn't count on it.

Unless Stevenson tightens up the ball security, Henderson is the RB to own — especially in PPR formats.

Giants Backfield: Trust the Role, Not the Hype

There are two names to know — draft accordingly.

Tyrone Tracy (RB30) had a brief lead role last year but faded. He profiles better as a change-up runner. At RB30, I'm out.

Cam Skattebo (RB36) is tougher than nails and likely will handle goal-line and early down duties. He's a strong RB3 target, especially if his ADP stays under RB28.

Steelers Running Backs: Smith's System Brings Volume

This could be a case of role over talent. 

Kaleb Johnson (RB29) landed in the perfect spot. Pittsburgh wants size, and Johnson brings it. He should lead in early down and red-zone work.

Jaylen Warren (RB37) maintains passing-down value. In PPR, that keeps him very much alive, especially if the Steelers play catch-up often.

Neither player is flashy, but both offer usable weekly value if their draft cost stays put.

A Few Rookies Worth Watching

These players could beat ADP by October.

RJ Harvey (RB19), Broncos, is getting slightly overlooked due to class depth, but Sean Payton is going to use him creatively. His path to touches is clear. The upside is immense.

Quinshon Judkins (RB21), Browns, joins a crowded room, but draft capital says he'll be the lead and produce at a high level. Has a true three-down skill set. 

Tetairoa McMillan (WR34), Panthers, is the Panthers' No. 1 WR. The issue? Low pass volume and competition from Xavier Legette and Adam Thielen.That said, his price is fair.

Emeka Egbuka (WR60), Buccaneers, is buried behind Evans and Godwin. Jalen McMillan played well late last year too. Unless there are injuries, Egbuka might struggle to beat WR55 value.

Final Word

Rookie fever is real, and in many cases, warranted. But every draft class has a few mis-priced names — some too high, some too low. Whether you're diving into fantasy football drafts now or after minicamps, knowing which rookies offer value is the edge that matters.

Want more? I'll have additional insights later this offseason after breaking down camp notes and role battles. In the meantime, use the Rotowire depth charts to spot emerging value before it disappears.