This is our Monday Night Football DFS breakdown, running through all the relevant player salaries on DraftKings and FanDuel while forecasting the potential game outcomes as the Dallas Cowboys face the Arizona Cardinals in Dallas.
Although Monday's game between the 3-4 home-team Cowboys and the 2-5 Cardinals might not hold the most compelling playoff implications, the combination of Dallas' good offense and horrific defense makes most games a potential shootout, and there's a chance this is one such game. The Cardinals are starting Jacoby Brissett, adding another dash of novelty to the occasion.
The Cowboys are favored by 3.0 points with the over/under at 53.5.
QUARTERBACK
To fade Dak Prescott ($10400 DK, $13000 FD) here is somewhat risky, but there are a lot of tempting options in this one-game slate and Prescott is of course not cheap. The Cardinals tend to run safety Jalen Thompson in the slot, which is just asking for trouble from CeeDee Lamb, and standout starting rookie corner Will Johnson is questionable with a groin injury, so there should be ways for Dallas to move the ball through the air. The issue is just that, the more this game trends toward a shootout, the more inclusive the list of cash-viable picks becomes.
Solid of a pick as Prescott might be, Jacoby Brissett ($8600 DK, $11400 FD) carries a similar projection at a lower price. The Dallas defense is all but a no-show against the pass, so the Cardinals should be able to move the ball consistently with or without a productive running game.
RUNNING BACK
Bam Knight ($7000 DK, $7400 FD) is tempting against a garbage Dallas defense, but the concern with him is that it could just as easily be Michael Carter ($4400 DK, $7000 FD) and to a lesser extent Emari Demercado ($3000 DK, $4000 FD) who benefits from the soft matchup. Knight will be the first one on the field, though, and his trait set makes him a safe projection for the short-yardage and goal-line work. Carter is more of an undersized pass-catching type, while Demercado mostly blocks. Whoever sees usage should prove productive with it, but guessing that usage split might not be easy.
Javonte Williams ($10000 DK, $12200 FD) is a somewhat risky fade given that he has nine touchdowns from scrimmage in eight games, though at this price it's also somewhat risky to pay for him. In a script where Dallas wins decisively it's easy to imagine a scenario where Williams cashes safely with multiple touchdowns and a hefty workload, but if the game goes to the air more than usual it would probably be inopportune for Williams, who has only 93 yards receiving despite his solid total of 24 receptions. Jaydon Blue ($1400 DK, $4200 FD) is a draw-back who basically needs the defense to cut him loose in order to provide production.
WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END
CeeDee Lamb ($10800 DK, $12800 FD) is always a perilous fade on one-game slates and in this game his clear route to production is in the slot. Lamb is good enough to win on the boundary, too, but in the slot the Cardinals to this point lined up safety Jalen Thompson, and no safety wants to cover Lamb even if it is in the slot. George Pickens ($8800 DK, $10200 FD) won't see as much of Thompson and will likely stick to the boundary, but even there it's worth upgrading Pickens' projection if Will Johnson is out. Good as Max Melton might be, Pickens is a mismatch against him. Jake Ferguson ($8000 DK, $8800 FD) is a player worth targeting particularly if you're fading either of the big Dallas wideouts. Ferguson has five or more catches in six of eight games this year, so last week's shutout was clearly a fluke.
KaVontae Turpin ($2000 DK, $4600 FD) is a tempting bargain target especially on DK, where he might be just a little too cheap after drawing five targets last week and regularly playing 30 or more snaps per game. Turpin makes sense as either stack component or a fade of the more expensive Dallas pass catchers. Ryan Flournoy ($2800 DK, $2000 FD) is also a candidate to play 30 snaps or so, but his 34 snaps last week might have been the result of Dallas getting obliterated by the Broncos. In a normal game Turpin's specialist role should prove more durable. Targets like Jalen Tolbert, Luke Schoonmaker and Brevyn Spann-Ford are otherwise just desperate punt plays.
Marvin Harrison ($8400 DK, $8200 FD) is in a great spot here, as he'll run primarily against backup-caliber corners Kaiir Elam and Trikweze Bridges. The Cardinals make Harrison less effective by assigning all of their most difficult routes to him, but against a defense this weak even a misused Harrison should prove productive. Trey McBride ($9000 DK, $9600 FD) has the highest floor among the Arizona skill players for sure and probably has the highest ceiling, too. With McBride on pace to push for 1,000 yards and double-digit touchdowns this year, it makes perfectly good sense to pursue a Cardinals stack, even if you don't expect them to win.
Secondary Arizona pass catchers like Michael Wilson ($3200 DK, $5600 FD) and Zay Jones ($4000 DK, $5000 FD) also warrant consideration on this slate, though at this point it's tough to make room and/or afford everyone we want. Wilson is a capable player, but Jones has the easier matchup here because Jones gets the weak boundary corners whereas Wilson will likely see the most of slot corner DaRon Bland – the only good one Dallas has at the moment. WR4 Greg Dortch and TE2 Elijah Higgins are both justifiable punt plays, but there is nothing assured there.
KICKER
Brandon Aubrey is very easily argued as the best kicker in NFL history, with his outrageous combination of range and accuracy making him a double-digit fantasy point threat in any game, including this one. Not all games will be a hit, but the rule is that if Aubrey is playing then he's a solid consideration on any one-game slate.
Chad Ryland doesn't have nearly the range Aubrey does and is probably less accurate too, yet Ryland is likely a solid kicker in his own right. While he's not nearly as likely to make five-point field goals, Ryland has proven accurate the last two years and if he gets an unusually high amount of opportunity he probably won't waste it. It's still long-shot logic, though.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
The Cowboys are definitely not an advised start in this slate, and the Cardinals probably aren't either. The Dallas defense has no pass rush, run defense or coverage ability, while the Cardinals defense has a good amount of those things but faces the tougher offense of the two.
The Cardinals could prove cashing-viable if the Cardinals really decisively pull off the upset, though.
