This is our Monday Night Football DFS strategy breakdown for Week 10 as the Green Bay Packers face the Philadelphia Eagles in Green Bay.
Week 10's Monday Night Football game is one that holds major playoff picture repercussions for the NFC. The visiting Eagles are 6-2 after some early-season stumbles, while the 5-2-1 home-team Packers are brushing themselves off after an embarrassing Week 9 wipeout against the lowly Panthers.
Both teams are mostly healthy outside of a few noteworthy exceptions, so with both teams near full force and with so much on the line in both cases Monday's game might feel a little like a playoff game in Week 10. The over/under is set at 45.0 with the Packers favored by only one point.
QUARTERBACK
The weather figures to be at freezing or below, which generally will make it a little tougher the throw the ball relative to mild or warm weather. The wind shouldn't be a factor and there should be minimal snow, however, so it's not as if this is a blizzard game.
Jalen Hurts ($11000 DK, $13200 FD) can post big rushing numbers in any game, but it especially comes in handy in games where he struggles as a passer. Granted, Hurts' rushing production hasn't been there in the last four weeks, with just 28 yards rushing over the last four games, but that probably won't last much longer. The bigger concern for Hurts here might be that Green Bay's zone coverages can be challenging – they throw a quiz at the quarterback and bank on the Micah Parsons-led pass rush hurrying the decision. If Hurts continues to stay cold as a runner then it might be tough for him to produce.
Jordan Love ($10000 DK, $11400 FD) normally has upside limitations due to a ground-heavy and low-tempo approach by the Packers offense, and the Eagles defense this year probably isn't as tough against the run as the ones from previous seasons. For Love to be a cashing-viable or especially a cashing-necessary pick would probably require a script where the Packers win and the Eagles offense does not produce much. The main argument for picking Love might be that it's sometimes difficult to capture his passing production by picking Packers pass catchers instead, because Matt LaFleur is obsessive about spreading the ball around.
RUNNING BACK
The Eagles are the more expensive side of the slate, so there comes a certain amount of anxiety regardless of whether you're picking or fading Saquon Barkley ($10800 DK, $12200 FD). Barkley's production has been very hit or miss so far this year, with his 174-yard, two-touchdown blowup before the bye preceded by two games with fewer than 10 fantasy points. The Eagles have shown a foolish tendency to abandon the run this year, which incidentally correlates to their periods of worst struggle, so perhaps they've since noticed the obvious and understand they need to feed Barkley to win. Tank Bigsby and Will Shipley are punt plays.
Josh Jacobs ($10600 DK, $12600 FD) is not an easy fade here and might not be an advised one, either. Green Bay sticks to the ground game even when it's a grinding effort, so the Eagles playing good run defense in this setting would not be a sufficient condition to assume Jacobs wouldn't still see a high level of usage. Jacobs has 10 rushing touchdowns and is on pace for around 50 receptions after catching 36 in 2024. If Jacobs has a bad game it's a very bad sign for Green Bay's chances of winning, even if RB2 Emanuel Wilson ($2600 DK, $3600 FD) does something useful off the bench. RB3 Chris Brooks would be a desperate punt play.
WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END
A.J. Brown ($9200 DK, $10600 FD) has been subjected to a nightmare season so far but at a price this low he's fairly tempting, especially since he caught four passes for 121 yards and two touchdowns when he last played in Week 7. The hamstring injury that kept out Brown in Week 8 appears to be a non-issue after two weeks of rest. DeVonta Smith ($9000 DK, $9400 FD) would probably be an advised pick for anyone fading Brown, and vice versa, though it's totally fair to pursue both players and even a stack with Jalen Hurts. For the full stack to pay off it would probably require either or some combination of a shootout and poor game rushing for Barkley. Dallas Goedert ($7400 DK, $8400 FD) is a bit expensive after scoring seven touchdowns in seven games – already a career high. Goedert is a very good player and capable of producing this way going forward, too, but it would need to take from Brown and Smith in a way that probably isn't realistic. Players like Jahan Dotson (WR3), Grant Calcaterra (TE2), Darius Cooper (WR4) and Kylen Granson (TE3) are little more than desperate punt picks in this narrowly-channeled offense.
Christian Watson ($6200 DK, $7200 FD) has been red-hot for Green Bay the last two weeks and could really help them out with another explosive game here. That would be particularly true if the Eagles shadow WR1 Romeo Doubs ($8000 DK, $8200 FD) with CB1 Quinyon Mitchell. Whichever Green Bay wide receiver gets Adoree' Jackson or Kelee Ringo on a given play is more likely to get open than whoever is against Mitchell. Luke Musgrave ($5400 DK, $5200 FD) must step up for Green Bay in light of Tucker Kraft's absence, and at this price Musgrave offers a tempting buy-low opportunity if he can fulfill the potential he showed as a second-round pick out of Oregon State. Musgrave can run and isn't much of a blocker, so if he's going to help it would be through the air.
It's not clear whether or how much Matthew Golden (shoulder) or Dontayvion Wicks (calf) might be able to play, but if they're out then WR5 Malik Heath ($3000 DK, $2400 FD) becomes an awfully tempting pick. TE2 John FitzPatrick is likely little more than a blocker otherwise.
KICKER
Neither of the kickers in this game are that great, but if their offenses get into scoring range enough times, and with few enough touchdowns to show for it, then the field goal opportunities could be there. If the rest of the slate is low-scoring, then the utility of these kickers would increase. It's perhaps a narrow path – picking the kickers might be a bet on a low-scoring game specifically.
Jake Elliott ($5000 DK, $6600 FD) is clearly the better of the two kickers in real-life terms, even after a down year in 2024. Elliott's issue is the Eagles don't kick field goals that much. When most teams kick field goals in enemy territory, the Eagles prefer to run that one play they're known for instead.
Brandon McManus ($4800 DK, $6200 FD) is playing through a quadriceps injury that he frankly should not be. McManus is no better than average as a kicker when healthy, and playing with the injury has pressed his margins further, resulting in making just 11 of 16 field goal attempts in this game. The Packers do not take special teams seriously and it's hard to see McManus as a play who can offer upside that justifies the risk otherwise.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Either or both defenses could make some noise in this, but if so it would present something of a disaster script for the opposing offense in question. In other words, to bet on either defense would probably be to bet the opposing team will struggle worse than the betting markets assume.
If the Packers ($4000 DK, $6400 FD) can get to Jalen Hurts with Micah Parsons and force some turnovers then it would all but assure Green Bay the win, but despite his whatever limitations Hurts does an excellent job of avoiding turnovers. Hurts has just one interception on the year.
The Eagles ($3800 DK, $6800 FD) can probably get to Jordan Love easier than the Packers can get to Hurts, and Love is certainly capable of his bad days. If you suspect the Packers let this game get away from them then the Eagles defense could capitalize in such a scenario. This Eagles defense is not as good as the ones of the past two years, however.
