The NFL season is rolling along quickly and we have some intriguing Week 4 matchups to work with. As the data points pile up, team trends become more reliable and we'll start to cite them more frequently. Injuries and changing roles are also becoming more prevalent and will give us several projections to consider this week.
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Higher
T.J. Hockenson 
at PIT– higher than 36.5 receiving yards
We haven't gotten a true look at the Vikings' passing game this season, first due to the struggles of J.J. McCarthy, and then with a blowout game script against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 3. That could change in Week 4 at Croke Park in the International Series game in Dublin, as the Steelers' defense currently faces the third-highest pass rate over expected. The matchup is also strong.
New England Patriots TE Hunter Henry scorched the Pittsburgh defense last week, and the Steelers also allowed Seattle Seahawks TEs Elijah Arroyo and AJ Barner to record four receptions on six targets for 57 yards and a touchdown in Week 2, while New York Jets TEs Mason Taylor and Jeremy Ruckert combined for three receptions for 36 yards on three targets in Week 1.
There's some danger Hockenson won't see many targets with the return of Jordan Addison, but Hockenson's projection doesn't factor in an exceptional number of opportunities.
Omarion Hampton 
at NYG – higher than 63.5 rushing yards
There's the obvious reason to be high on Hampton this week, as he lines up to lead the Chargers' backfield in the absence of Najee Harris (Achilles), who is gone for the season. Hampton was impressive after taking the reins in the backfield in Week 3, logging 129 total yards from scrimmage.
The Giants have been gashed on the ground through three games, allowing the fifth-most rushing yards per game. They also remain without Micah McFadden (foot) in the middle of their linebacker corps.
TreVeyon Henderson 
vs. CAR - higher than 42.5 rushing yards
Henderson isn't likely to be in line to take over the Patriots' backfield in the same way as Hampton as in Los Angeles, but New England should be looking to change the rotation of their backfield. Rhamondre Stevenson lost two fumbles in Week 3, including a costly misue at the goal line, which played a significant role in the team's loss. Antonio Gibson was the first to get a chance after Stevenson was benched, but then he also went on to lose a fumble. The rookie Henderson has had miscues of his own, primarily penalties and missed assignments in pass protection, but this is a relatively low projection, and Henderson should continue to expand his role.
Christian McCaffrey vs. JAX 
– higher than 42.5 receiving yards
This one is pretty straightforward. McCaffrey has 32 targets this season, tied for third in the league with the likes of Malik Nabers and Jake Ferguson. He's managed a particularly efficient 2.15 yards per routes run.
The 49ers will likely have to scale back McCaffrey's volume at some point, but this week isn't likely to be it. WR Jauan Jennings (ankle) hasn't practiced this week (through Thursday), while TE George Kittle (hamstring) and WR Brandon Aiyuk (knee) both remain out. WR Demarcus Robinson returns, but he's unlikely to command enough targets to cut into McCaffrey's role meaningfully.
Jake Ferguson 
vs. GB – higher than 54.5 receiving yards
The Cowboys will be without WR CeeDee Lamb (knee), and we have a clue as to what the Dallas offense will look like given that he also missed nearly all of Week 3's loss to the Bears. Several pass catchers should have the chance to step up, but Ferguson stands out above the rest thanks to a 48.3 targets per route run. That volume isn't sustainable, but this projection is low enough that Ferguson should be able to top it while serving as Dallas' playmaker alongside George Pickens.
Lower
Jaxson Dart 
vs. LAC- lower than 229.5 pass + rush yards
Giants' fans will be excited for their potential franchise quarterback to make his pro debut, but Dart draws a tough assignment Sunday. The Chargers have allowed opposing quarterbacks to average only 5.1 yards per pass attempt – the second-lowest mark in the league.
It's also reasonable to speculate that the Giants will ease Dart into the game, with the potential to lean heavily on the run game or short passing attack. The combination of matchup and projected game plan leaves us with modest statistical expectations for Dart in his debut.
Aaron Rodgers 
vs. MIN– lower than 202.5 passing yards
Week 1 looks to be an outlier for Rodgers and the Pittsburgh offense, as the passing game has essentially been non-existent since. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Rodgers has averaged 2.9 completed air yards, the lowest mark in the league by 0.6 yards. The only foreseeable threat to this number is the pass catchers picking up yards after the catch, which both WR DK Metcalf and RB Jaylen Warren have showcased early this season.
This a low projection, and it has decreased throughout the week. That makes taking the lower a bit more uncomfortable, but the matchup is also tough. Minnesota has surrendered only 5.1 yards per attempt this season to opposing quarterbacks, so this doesn't look like the week for Pittsburgh to change its offensive outlook.
Hollywood Brown 
vs. BAL – lower than 40.5 receiving yards
Brown has maintained a significant role in the Kansas City offense through the first three weeks of the season, and he led the team with 41 routes run in Week 3. That has been the only good news for Brown. After a monstrous Week 1 performance, Brown has posted 0.88 and 1.02 yards per route run marks. In those two games, he's also recorded a pedestrian 14.7 and 14.6 targets per route run.
Xavier Worthy (shoulder) looks likely to return Sunday, and he should cut into Brown's role even if with limited snaps. Tyquan Thornton has also started to emerge as a more efficient target for Patrick Mahomes.
