We're back for another week of Underdog Pick 'Em selections. As always, there is a lot of news pending at this point in the week, which has caused some big movement in projections. Not all relevant players currently have props on Underdog, which is something to consider with the Los Angeles Rams and New York Jets, particularly with the absences of WRs Puka Nacua and Garrett Wilson set to open up a lot of opportunity in their respective offenses.
In addition to news, I'll rely heavily on matchups, with the defense vs. position tool particularly helpful.
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Higher
Tre Tucker at KC – higher than 43.5 receiving yards
The Chiefs aren't a defensive matchup to target, as they allow the ninth-fewest yards per target to opposing wide receivers. Similarly, the Raiders have been an inconsistent offense early in the season. That doesn't make this projection jump off the page, but Tucker looks to be in line to serve as the top pass catch in Las Vegas. Both Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers have yet to practice this week (through Thursday), seemingly putting them on the wrong side of questionable. That should put Tucker on the higher end of his range of potential targets (eight or nine is realistic), which should be enough to reach 44 receiving yards.
Chris Olave at CHI – higher than 8.5 targets
Olave has had frustrating production due to inconsistent quarterback play and offense in general. While that isn't likely to change, Olave's role is secure as he has double-digit targets in five of six games this season. The matchup sets up some risk that the Saints will go with a run-heavy offensive gameplan, as the Bears have allowed a league-high 5.62 yards per rush attempt this season. However, Olave has been able to dominate targets to such a degree that this is still a comfortable selection.
Evan Engram vs. NYG – higher than 26.5 receiving yards
Engram's role has stabilized his role in the Denver offense, participating in over 50 percent of team routes in four straight games while earning at least six targets in three straight contests. Opposing tight ends have had varying degrees of success against the Giants this season, but this selection is more about Engram's consistent target volume rather than the matchup.
Quinshon Judkins vs. MIA – higher than 18.5 yards longest rush
There are several different possible ways to make a selection related to Judkins. He has the perfect blend of skill, role and matchup to have a big performance Sunday against the Dolphins. Miami has been nearly as bad as Chicago against the run, allowing 5.6 yards per attempt – the second-highest mark in the league. In recent weeks, the unit has allowed 108 yards, 81 yards, 206 yards and 124 yards to opposing running backs since Week 3.
The projected weather is the one factor that could make things difficult. There are expected wind gusts of up to 40 mph on Sunday, meaning the Dolphins could focus entirely on stopping the run. If the Browns can't get anything going on offense, Judkins could struggle to reach the lofty 92.5 rushing yard projection. He has managed long rushes of more than 30 yards in three of his five games this season, and the leaky Miami defense is likely to give up at least one long run in the contest.
Tucker Kraft at ARI – higher than 45.5 receiving yards
Green Bay is generally a team I want to shy away from as the target volume among pass catchers is difficult to project on a weekly basis. In Week 7, however, the matchup suggests that Kraft should be heavily involved. The Cardinals have allowed opposing tight ends to be targeted 56 times, the most of any team except the Bengals (including Thursday's total against the Steelers) and only Cincinnati and Carolina have allowed opposing tight ends to record more yards. Kraft has proven to be reliable in terms of making the most of his targets, so this looks to be a good spot for him.
Lower
Tony Pollard vs. NE – lower than 57.5 rushing + receiving yards
The workload in the Tennessee backfield could be shifting. In Week 6, Pollard saw a season-low 10 carries and 12 total touches, while Tyjae Spears went from touches in his season debut to nine. The volume uncertainty and poor Tennessee offense is enough to shy away from Pollard, but New England's defense only makes things more difficult. The Patriots have allowed 3.13 yards per carry to opposing backs this season, second to only Seattle. They're more vulnerable through the air, but Spears looks to have taken over as the primary pass catcher out of the backfield in Tennessee.
Jaxson Dart at DEN – lower than 38.5 rushing yards
Dart is rightfully getting buzz for giving the Giants life in what had previously looked to be a miserable season, but a game at Denver is tough for veterans, let alone a rookie with a handful of career starts. I'm particularly focused on his rushing yards based on what Denver has done to very mobile quarterbacks this season, holding the likes of Daniel Jones, Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts to single-digit rushing yards. In Week 6, they limited Justin Fields to only 31 yards.
Isiah Pacheco vs. LV – lower than 56.5 rushing + receiving yards
Pacheco remains firmly in a timeshare with Kareem Hunt, while Brashard Smith has also slowly started to work himself into the backfield rotation in Kansas City. This is a selection based on volume, as Pacheco has lived in the nine to 11 touch range for the majority of the season. He's also logged seven or fewer receiving yards in four of six games. As a result, Pacheco would likely need around 12-13 carries to approach and potentially top this projection, a number he's struggled to reach with Hunt taking away plenty of work.
