This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Cincinnati Bengals total points over 23.5 (-115) at Kansas City Chiefs
This is a reasonable team total in what's expected to be a very high-scoring game, in good weather (current total 54.5). The Bengals have cleared this hurdle in 3 of their last 4 games that Burrow played in, including a 34-31 win over the Chiefs in Week 17. In those three games, the Bengals scored 26, 34, and 41 points, with QB Joe Burrow averaging 390 passing yards per game over the last month. He now faces the 27th-ranked passing defense, whom he hit up for 446 yards in Week 17, and will be forced to air it out today. There's a good chance the Bengals put up some points in this contest, and utilizing the team total (as opposed to Bengals +7 or even Bengals +7.5) protects against the chance of a Kansas City blowout, which of course is in play here. As long as the team total stays under 24, I think it's the preferable option.
San Francisco 49ers (+3.5) (-110) at Los Angeles Rams
This is good value on the 49ers, who beat Los Angeles in both games this year, taking their win streak against the Rams up to six games. Obviously, both teams are coming in hot, but this inflated line seems like a reflection of the Rams' flashy win over Tom Brady/Tampa Bay, while the 49ers struggled to eke out a win during blizzard conditions in Green Bay. The Rams ranked fifth in passing yards this year behind the unstoppable Cooper Kupp, but also ranked fifth in interceptions behind the not-always-reliable Matt Stafford (who threw a pair of interceptions in both games against the 49ers this year). Meanwhile, the league's best H-back Deebo Samuel connected for 3 TD's over his two games versus the Rams, accounting for 140 and 133 scrimmage yards in each. On the ground, the Rams rushing offense ranked 25th this year (partly due to their air superiority), while the 49ers ranked sixth in rushing defense. Good spot for the 49ers as more than a 3-point underdog, in what figures to be a very competitive, lower-scoring ballgame.
This appears to be a very favorable weekend for 6-point teasers, with the Chiefs -1, Bengals +13, and 49ers +9.5 all representing fine options. I prefer the Chiefs/49ers combo, as the blowout potential seems larger in the Chiefs/Bengals game than in 49ers/Rams. I also think that both underdog moneyline parlays are live, those being Bengals/49ers and Bengals/Bengals (i.e. straight through the Super Bowl). The Bengals/49ers combo is currently paying +832, while moneyline parlays are generally a better play than a regular Super Bowl future (when making one this late in the season). I would guess the Bengals/Bengals combination might approach 10/1 odds (shouldn't be lower than 8/1), particularly if the Chiefs click up to -7.5 points this weekend.
Joe Burrow over 288.5 passing yards (-125)
The Bengals have the best young passing offense in the league, and it's only going to get better. Joe Burrow ranked #1 in the league in yards per attempt (8.7), with the Bengals ranked 7th in total passing yards (despite ranking just 20th in passing attempts) behind the talented Ja'Marr Chase/ Tee Higgins/Tyler Boyd/ C.J. Uzomah combo. Meanwhile, Burrow's league-leading efficiency should play well vs. the Chiefs, whose passing defense ranked 24th in yards per attempt allowed. In the Bengals 34-31 home win over the Chiefs (Week 17), Burrow threw for 446 yards and 4 touchdowns. Burrow should receive a positive game script, with this figuring to be a high-scoring ballgame, with lots of passing on both sides. There's also a good chance that the Bengals will be playing from behind, and forced throw more often. Seems like an easily attainable number for Burrow given the circumstances, in what's expected to be good weather on Sunday.
Ja'Marr Chase over 86.5 receiving yards (-125)
Chase comes into this game with 109+ receiving yards in four out of his last five games. And as mentioned previously, this game should definitely involve a lot of passing. The Chiefs ranked 27th in passing defense, helping that cause. Chase of course also had the huge game vs. the Chiefs in Week 17, beating them for 266 yards and 3 touchdowns on 11-of-12 targets. There's a good chance he goes over.
Ja'Marr Chase anytime touchdown (-115)
There's just no way around it, Chase is very likely to score this week. He went 11-266-3 in his prior game vs. the Chiefs and shows no sign of slowing down, being the #1 favored option of QB Joe Burrow in what's expected to be a very high-scoring affair (current total 54.5). There is a strong chance that he finds the end zone once again.
Tee Higgins over 72.5 receiving yards (-125)
I always enjoy backing Higgins, because I feel he's consistently undervalued in relation to Chase, most notably in the anytime TD prices. Higgins had been a bit inconsistent to close out the year, but really turned it on last week when it counted, going 7-96 (on 9 targets) in the Bengals' upset win over the Titans. With good weather expected and lots of footballs in the air, this is an attainable number for Higgins (especially if the Chiefs decide to double-team Chase).
Cooper Kupp over 103.5 receiving yards (-125)
Kupp has gone over this number in 12 games this season, including going 11-122 and 7-118-1 in his two games versus the 49ers earlier this year. The overall WR1 comes into this game off a huge 9-183-1 performance at Tampa last week and is clearly the engine of the Rams offense. There is a good chance he goes flying over the century mark in the Rams' biggest game of the year.
Deebo Samuel anytime touchdown (-115)
As mentioned in the 49ers write-up, Deebo connected for 3 touchdowns in his pair of games vs. the Rams this year, accounting for 140 and 133 scrimmage yards on the two separate occasions. As the 49ers' primary goal-line weapon (aside from perhaps Elijah Mitchell), Deebo is a huge threat to score in any game, perhaps never more so than in San Francisco's biggest game of the season. They'll find a way to get him the ball, and Deebo will generally find a way to score.
Brandon Aiyuk over 49.5 receiving yards (-125)
With Deebo spending so much time in the backfield, Aiyuk had taken over as the 49ers receiving leader for several weeks before heading into that blizzard game in Green Bay. If you throw that game out due to the weather conditions, it's fair to think that Aiyuk will return to leading the team in receiving yards, while Deebo Samuel is more of a rushing + receiving (and/or TD) play. Note that Aiyuk went 6-107 against the Rams in Week 18, and has connected on long-gainers of 30+ yards in three of his last four games. Good value here on one of the 49ers major pass-catchers.