2023 RBC Heritage Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

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Published on April 11, 2023

RBC Heritage Betting Preview

There's no time for a Masters hangover, as we have another designated event on the calendar -- this week's RBC Heritage in Hilton Head, South Carolina.

While tournaments following a major have historically not featured a strong field, more money on the line has brought more talent this time around, and 17 of the top 20 players in the Official World Golf Ranking will tee it up at Harbour Town. This group is headlined by favorite Scottie Scheffler, who checks in with 17-2 odds, and last week's winner, Jon Rahm, who is listed at 10-1.

Last year, Jordan Spieth -- at 28-1 odds -- tallied his 13th PGA Tour victory by beating out Patrick Cantlay on the first playoff hole.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 6:15 PM ET Tuesday.

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Course Characteristics

Par 71, 7,191 yards

Average Strokes Gained Rankings: Last Five Winners

SG: Off-the-Tee: 23.6
SG: Approach: 9.6
SG: Around-the-Green: 29.0
SG: Putting: 22.8
SG: Tee-to-Green: 5.4
Driving Distance: 26.8
Driving Accuracy: 37.4

Harbour Town plays differently than a lot of the venues on the calendar, as the usual bomb-and-gouge method isn't the recipe for success here. That's standard at a Pete Dye designed course -- Austin Country Club, used for the Match Play event is a similar track -- and with only three par-4s over 460 yards, this sets up as a second shot golf course. The greens are some of the smallest and toughest to hit on Tour, putting an extra emphasis on iron play and scrambling. Driving will not be much of a factor as usual with players leaving that club in the bag on many holes, and thus accuracy off the tee will be more important than distance. The winning score was 13-under-par or lower five of the last seven years.

Harbour Town History

These five golfers, with a minimum of eight rounds played, have the lowest scoring average at Harbour Town since 2018.

Poston's results in Hilton Head stand out, and they have led to three top-10 finishes in four tries, highlighted by his T3 last year in which he missed the playoff by one shot. Poston has developed into a much more consistent player, with just under half -- seven -- of his 15 starts this season resulting in a top-25 finish. The oddsmakers have taken notice, as he's tied for the 22nd choice in a stacked field at 60-1. Shortly behind Poston on the list is Kuchar, who is listed at 45-1 and is making his 19th start at Harbour Town. His resume here is quite impressive, as since 2014 he's finished no worse than T41 and has posted a win and five top-10s. It's no wonder he's done so well here considering his game is built around his precision and short game.

The Proper Approach

These players, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes on approach over their last 20 rounds.

It's not easy to identify what Rahm does best considering how good he is in all aspects of the game, but recently his approach play has stood out most. The main question will be how ready he is coming off his Masters victory and all the attention and media requests associated with it. Rahm, who has now won four times in 2023, has made one previous appearance in this event, which resulted in a T33 in 2020. Meanwhile, Homa will look to bounce back from another disappointing major result after finishing T43 last week. In his lone start here -- which resulted in a T41 in 2020 -- he ranked fifth in Strokes Gained: Approach but struggled with his usually-reliable short game. He seems a little bit under the radar at 28-1.

RBC Heritage Bets: Outright Picks

Patrick Cantlay (12-1)

Cantlay recorded a pair of top-5s in designated events over the past two months but was unable to break through. Harbour Town is one of the best places for him to do just that, as he owns four top-10s in five career appearances.

Matt Fitzpatrick (28-1)

It's not the first time I've picked Fitzpatrick to win here, as it has been well documented that this is the non-major venue he has circled on his calendar. He looked healthy in his top-10 Masters finish, and this course fits his game well. He recorded three top-15 finishes here over his last five appearances.

Sahith Theegala (60-1)

Theegala has shown a lot during his year and a half on Tour, qualifying for the TOUR Championship as a rookie and notching his first top-10 in a major last week. He has nearly won several times, and his biggest weakness -- he is a mediocre driver -- shouldn't hold him back much at Harbour Town.

RBC Heritage Bets: Top-10 Wagers

Chris Kirk (6-1)

Outside of the top players in the game, Kirk is having as good a year as anyone, with a win and four top-10s. He even played well at Augusta, a course that isn't best-suited for him. With his precision and a strong short game, I like his chances at a top-10 -- something he already did in 2021.

Maverick McNealy (8-1)

McNealy hasn't had the best year, thanks in no small part to a shoulder injury that prevented him from finishing a tournament for over a month, but hopefully a couple of weeks off allowed him to get to 100 percent. His track record here is solid -- he has made the cut in all three attempts and tallied a top-5 two years ago.

Min Woo Lee (10-1)

Lee at these odds for a top 10? In this economy?! Every start is important for the 24-year-old, who is close to acquiring special temporary PGA Tour membership. He's shown an elite short-game and length off the tee in his brief time stateside, which led to a top-10 at TPC Sawgrass. I'll take the value.

RBC Heritage Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups

Russell Henley (-120) over Si Woo Kim

Following a slow start to the year, Henley looks like he's found his form again, notching three straight top-20 finishes, including a top-5 at Augusta. He led the field in SG: Approach here in 2021 en route to a top-10 result. On the other hand, Kim hasn't posted a top-20 in his last five stroke play events and has a best finish of T33 over his last four starts here.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (-110) over Tom Hoge

Bezuidenhout's severe lack of distance makes it tough for him to contend on most PGA Tour tracks, but this is one that he can compete on. The rest of his game is above average, and he's made the cut in both appearances here. I like the matchup against Hoge, who has missed the cut more often than he has made it in his five trips.

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