DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: Black Desert Championship Cash and GPP Strategy

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.

BLACK DESERT CHAMPIONSHIP

Purse: $7.5M 
Winner's Share: $1.35M 
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner 
Location: Ivins, Utah
Course: Black Desert Resort
Yardage: 7,371 
Par: 71

Tournament Preview

The state of Utah is returning to the PGA Tour for the first time in six decades. Coincidentally, one of the best golfers in the world is from ... Utah! Who better to get the nascent tournament off the ground than six-time PGA Tour winner and multiple Ryder/Presidents Cup player Tony Finau? No one, that's who (non-Tiger Woods division).

Yet when the field was announced on Friday, Utah's favorite son was nowhere to be seen. Turns out, Finau's son is playing in a golf tournament in Texas, and Dad wasn't going to miss that.

Instead, the top golfer in the field is ... No. 41-ranked Chris Kirk? (We're pretty sure that sentence had never been written anywhere ever before.) Players of some acclaim after Kirk? Well, Lucas Glover, Keith Mitchell, Nick Taylor, Stephan Jaeger and Matt McCarty, who recently received a so-called battlefield promotion for winning three times on the Korn Ferry Tour this year. In all. there are two players in the top 50 of the OWGR and 19 from the top 100.

Such is the challenge of a fall PGA Tour event getting quality players to come to their tournament, even a shiny new one that looks as if it will be contested on a spectacularly beautiful course. 

But leave it to local media to find silver linings in the 132-man field. This from KSL Sports in Utah:

"Every name that follows has won at least four PGA Tour events.

Aaron Baddeley, Daniel Berger, Harris English, Lucas Glover, J.B. Holmes, Chris Kirk, Kevin Kisner, Martin Laird, Ryan Moore, Brandt Snedeker, Nick Taylor, and Camilo Villegas.

The biggest achievement from a golfer in the field is likely from Glover who won the 2009 U.S. Open Championship."

All of that is, of course, true. Except maybe for the biggest achievement.

That's because former BYU star and 2003 Masters winner Mike Weir heads a contingent of golfers with ties to the Beehive State.

Zac Blair, Patrick Fishburn -- both of whom are on the pre-tournament interview schedule -- and Peter Kuest are also BYU alums. Utah high school seniors Zac Jones and Kihei Akina received sponsor invites, as did 17-year-old Utah native Bowen Mauss, who will play for Arizona State in the upcoming season.

But there's one more Utahan of note: Jay Don Blake. If your first thought was "Who?" you are not alone.

Blake is a former PGA Tour winner. But he's also a former Champions Tour winner. You see, Blake is 65 years old. He's making his 500th PGA Tour career start, which certainly is a cool thing for him and something the Tour and tournament organizers will highlight. In fact, he has the first media session of the week on Tuesday morning. 

As a reminder, players are battling to stay inside or get into the top-125 of the FedEx Cup point standings by the end of the fall season next month. There's also so-called "Next 10" from Nos. 50 to 60, which would automatically get those golfers into next year's PLAYERS Championship and two early signature events at Pebble Beach and Riviera.

Black Desert is a Tom Weiskopf/Phil Smith design, Weiskopf's final work that opened in late 2022 just months after his passing. It is located in the southwestern corner of Utah, right near Nevada and Arizona and not that far from Las Vegas (about 130 miles). The course is at elevation, more than 3,000 feet, so it will play at less than 7,000 yards. Video flyovers show incredible vistas and topography, wide fairways with severe undulations and angles and large multi-tiered greens. They are Bentgrass, average 7,000 square feet and will run a speedy 12 on the Stimpmeter. There are only 44 bunkers and water comes into play on just three holes.

The rough will only be two inches, according to the Golf Course Superintendents fact sheet. That's because Black Desert is a rocky, sandy desert track built in the middle of a lava field. Chiseled, actually. (And before you picture volcanos with fiery lava spewing out, no, that's not this.)

There are some very long holes that of course won't play that long: three par-4s over 500 yards, plus four more in excess of 450. There are two par-3s at 200-plus. The three par-5s at Nos. 7, 9 and 18 are all relatively short to begin with, in the 570-580 range. The most fun hole might be the 322-yard drivable 14th. 

As for the weather, the golfers will see highs around 90 all four days with zero rain and moderate wind. In other words, a green-light special.

Interesting Utah golf factoids: The last PGA Tour event in the state had been the 1963 Utah Open. As you'll recall, the late Terry Jacobs won one of his four PGA tour titles that week. ... Blake's lone PGA Tour win came at Torrey Pines in 1991 (then known as the  Shearson Lehman Brothers Open) and he also won three Champions Tour events. ... The LPGA Tour will come to Utah at the very same Black Desert course next April. 

Key Stats to Winning at Black Desert

The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee/Driving Distance
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green 
• Approaches from 150 yards
• Strokes Gained: Putting 
• Birdie average/Birdie or Better Percentage 

Champion's Profile

It's a new course, we have no data to rely on. But we do know that new PGA Tour tracks tend to run on the easier side, so let's err on the side of birdie-fest.

The course will play under 7,000 yards because of elevation, and there doesn't seem to be all that much trouble lurking. So long hitters should be able let fly. Even still, this will likely be a second-shot/putting contest. The greens are very large. But -- and there's almost always a but -- they will be speedy and the golfers will want to land in the right part of the undulating surfaces to give them a better chance at birdie.

Good putting appears to be a requirement this week, as it does in all birdie-fests. In these weak fields, we often see poor putters putt well. That was the case last week with winner Kevin Yu, who withdrew here after capturing the Sanderson Farms, and third-place finisher Keith Mitchell, who once again is tops on the DraftKings board.

The over/under on this year's winning score is 262.5 per golfodds.com -- 21.5 under par. The over/under on the first round is a way-low 62.5.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS

Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap

$10,000 and up

Keith Mitchell - $10,600 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +1600)
It was a brutal finish last week for Mitchell, who missed a three-footer for par on 18 on Sunday that cost him a spot in the playoff. He had led for most of the weekend. At least he had a sense of humor about it, saying afterward that he played well for 71 and a half holes. Mitchell has actually done more than that, finishing 12-T12-T3 in his past three starts going back to the Wyndham. He ranked 11th in the Sanderson field in SG: Putting. And we all know how good the rest of his game is.

Kurt Kitayama - $10,200 (+2500)
Kitayama had a very disappointing season and missed the playoffs. It wasn't for missing cuts, however; he just couldn't muster many high finishes. Kitayama has had just two top-10s and five top-25s in 20 starts. That tends to speak to putting issues and Kitayama, in fact, is ranked 150th on Tour. He's ranked 16th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 28th in Approach, which, in this field could be enough to keep near the top of the leaderboard.

$9,000-$9,900

Patrick Fishburn - $9,600 (+3000)
Part of the BYU posse, Fishburn entered last week with three top-6s in his previous four starts. He managed only a T48 at the Sanderson. He is one of the biggest hitters on Tour and ranked third in greens in regulation.

Ryan Fox - $9,200 (+3500) 
Fox played a couple of times in Europe before returning to the PGA Tour with a T11 last week. The New Zealander didn't make the playoffs in his first season on Tour but will keep his card. He's missed only one cut since May. Fox's biggest shortcoming is fairway accuracy, which might not kill him this week. He's the rare combination of long hitter and good putter.

Lucas Glover - $9,000 (+4000) 
Glover missed the playoffs and has stated that he will make a commitment to improving next season, at age 44, via fitness and diet. He's off to a great start with a T13 at the Procore and a T3 at the Sanderson Farms. Glover has been his usual self -- ninth in SG: Approach on the season, 22nd in Tee-to-Green and, yes, 138th in Putting. But at the Sanderson he ranked 15th in putting and he showed the past two weeks he can go low.

$8,000-$8,900

Michael Thorbjornsen - $8,800 (+4000) 
The 2024 PGA Tour University winner is coming off his second top-10 in nine starts since leaving Stanford in the spring. He also made the cut at the Procore in the fall opener. Thorbjornsen is one of the biggest hitters in the field, average almost 318 yards off the tee. He makes a lot of birdies, ranked fourth in this field over his past 24 rounds.

Harry Hall - $8,400 (+4500) 
Hall is quite familiar with golf in this part of the country, having attended UNLV. He's ranked top-75 on Tour in both SG: Approach and Putting. He's second overall in SG: Around-the-Green and, while that's not necessarily a critical stat this week, when you are that good in any one area, it's a definite edge on the field. Hall is also ranked 15th in birdie average.

Andrew Novak - $8,100 (+3500) 
Yes, regular readers, we're back for more Novak. T23 last week at the Sanderson in his seventh straight made cut, four of which ended with top-25s. Novak is ranked top-20 on Tour in both SG: Approach and Tee-to-Green and is a better-than-average putter.

$7,000-$7,900

Doug Ghim - $7,900 (+4500) 
Ghim is one of the best iron and tee-to-green players in the field (29th in SG: Off-the-Tee, sixth in Approach). His putting is an issue -- but maybe not so much in this field. He has missed only seven cuts all year. Ghim's best results were at the beginning of the year before fields got stronger, but he's also made both cuts in the fall, with a T33 last week.

Mac Meissner - $7,800 (+4000) 
This is a go-to pick of ours at a very nice price in this field. Meissner has nine top-25s this season. He's coming off a T37 last week. He's a strong iron player -- ranked 27th in SG: Approach -- and above average in every other strokes-gained category. He's also ranked 56th in birdie average.

Jacob Bridgeman - $7,600 (+5000) 
Bridgeman has eight top-25s this season, with last week's T11 at the Sanderson his best. He's finished top-20 in three of his past four starts going back to before the playoffs. Bridgeman is ranked fifth on Tour in SG: Putting and 13th in birdie average.

Chandler Phillips - $7,600 (+5500) 
Phillips has missed only five cuts all year and has made both during the fall season, with a T13 at the Procore. He's decent statistically across the board, but he's best on the greens, ranking 32nd in SG: Putting, plus 28th in birdie average.

Austin Smotherman - $7,100 (+9000) 
Smotherman has played under conditional status this season (Nos. 126-150 category) and thus has had only 12 starts. But he's made 11 cuts, including both this fall, with a T7 at the Procore. He's up to 164th in the point standings, so he has to keep his foot on the pedal the rest of the season.

$6,000-$6,900

Carson Young - $6,900 (+10000) 
At No. 118 in points, Young is desperately trying to stay in the top-125. He has not been playing well of late, but he has the skill set necessary to succeed at this course. He's not a long hitter, which hurts him much of the time but shouldn't this week. With that, the rest of his game gets much better. Young is a top-100 putter on Tour, which doesn't sound great but in this field it's pretty good. He's ranked 35th in birdie average.

Ryo Hisatsune - $6,900 (+11000) 
The 22-year-old from Japan has had a good rookie season n Tour -- he will keep his card for next season sitting at 89th in points. His best result was a T3 at the Wyndham and he also was top-20 at the PGA Championship. Hisatsune is another short hitter who statistically is pretty good at everything else. He's ranked 57th on Tour this season in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and 65th in birdie average, which in this field would get you in the Golf Hall of Fame.

S.Y. Noh - $6,400 (+9000) 
This is interesting. Here's a case of a golfer's DFS price not quite matching his sportsbook odds. 90-1 is shorter than the two guys above him here in the upper $6,000s. The 33-year-old Noh has played mostly on the Korn Ferry Tour this year, having only past champion status on the PGA Tour. He's coming off a T18 last week at the KF Tour Championship and was T12 two tournaments before that. In limited PGA Tour play, just seven starts, Noh has made five cuts with two top-25s and even a top-10 (at the ISCO Championship in July). 

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