This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
COGNIZANT CLASSIC IN THE PALM BEACHES
Purse: $9M
Winner's Share: $1.62M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, Fla.
Course: PGA National (Champion)
Yardage: 7,147
Par: 71
2023 champion: Chris Kirk
Tournament Preview
The name of the annual PGA Tour stop at PGA National Golf Club isn't the only thing about the tournament that changed this year. Along with a new title sponsor, it has some semblance of a decent field.
The tournament formerly known as the Honda Classic -- and it is "formerly" in large part because the fields were so dreadful in recent years -- has multiple players in the top-10 in the world rankings for the first time in four years and features 19 of the top-50 for the first time in seven years (last year, there were 18 in the top-100).
The huge get for incoming title sponsor Cognizant is world No. 2 Rory McIlroy, who will be joined by No. 9 Matt Fitzpatrick, plus fan favorite and 2017 Honda champion Rickie Fowler, Tom Kim, Cameron Young, 2020 champ Sungjae Im, 2022 winner Sepp Straka and defending champion Chris Kirk.
This tournament has traditionally led off the four-tournament Florida Swing, a congested spot on the golf calendar. It previously was surrounded by the Genesis Invitational and WGC-Match Play on one side and the Arnold Palmer Invitational and PLAYERS Championship on the other. All had been classified as Signature Events. The Honda used to have a stout field. They had an OWGR strength-of-field rating in the mid-400s in 2015, but five years later it had plummeted into the mid-200s. The drip-drip-drip of exiting good players eventually became too much for Honda and the automaker bowed out after last year.
Now, thanks to the demise of the Match Play tournament, plus McIlroy's stated desire to play more leading up the Masters, the Cognizant Corp. begins its association with the Tour with a little juice. (Does anybody know what "Cognizant" actually is? A quiz will be upcoming.)
It wasn't too long ago, in the past dozen years, that McIlroy, Fowler, Justin Thomas and Adam Scott not only came to PGA National, but won. They continued a long tradition of the biggest names in golf winning this tournament. Honda's affiliation began way back in 1982 with Hall of Famer Hale Irwin capturing the Honda Inverrary Classic -- an homage to the old Jackie Gleason days -- and the following year Johnny Miller edged Jack Nicklaus for the title.
Maybe this year will prove to be the start of an ascension leading to a return of the tournament's heyday.
To be clear, the field is far from great. Close to half of the 144 golfers are ranked outside the top-150 in the world. Therefore, it presents an incredible opportunity for someone to experience a career- and life-altering moment by winning the tournament, and continue the season-long trend of long shot winners. Last week, the Mexico Open was won by 29-year-old Tour rookie Jake Knapp.
If nothing else, fans can enjoy the carnage that PGA National administers on an annual basis with water on 15 holes. Over the past two decades, nearly 5,000 golf balls have gotten wet, an average of almost 250 per year. No stretch is more confounding for the golfers than the famed Bear Trap.
It is one of the cute little nicknames that courses like to give themselves for their tough stretches. Here, it's Nos. 15 through 17, two par-3s sandwiching a par-4. On each of them, there is water on every full-length shot, and the trepidation is real. After that the golfers can exhale, as the 18th is a relative cakewalk, a par-5 at only 556 yards. Last year, the Bear Trap played at about collective 160 over par.
PGA National is way more than just three holes, however. It surely is no splendor in the grass. It's annually one of the toughest tracks the golfers will play. The hardest hole a year ago wasn't even in the Bear Trap. It was the hole preceding the Trap, the 465-yard 14th, which played more than a third of a shot over par and was one of the hardest holes on Tour all season.
Still, things could be a bit easier this year. While the winning score often has been in the single digits, last year Kirk and Eric Cole tied at 14-under. And this year, the beastly 508-yard par-10th has been converted into a third par-5, and a short one at that, at 530 yards. So a stroke to par was added while the length increased a mere 22 yards from the previous 7,125. Further, the fairways have been widened a small bit, about one acre of fairway grass across the 18 holes, according to the official golf course superintendents' fact sheet.
But let's not go overboard and think that the 1981 Tom and George Fazio design will be easy. There's still water, water everywhere, still narrow fairways, wind normally exceeding 15 mph and strategically placed bunkers, though there are only 60 total on the course. We see a lot of birdie-fests on Tour; this week is all about bogey avoidance. Actually, it's about double- or triple-bogey avoidance. There were a whopping 212 double bogeys or worse last year, fourth most on the PGA Tour. In four of the past five years, the winner didn't have a double bogey on his card. Kirk had six bogeys and no doubles, and the year before Straka had six bogeys and one double. Two years ago, Matt Jones had 10 bogeys but zero doubles. Im had 13 bogeys in 2020 but again, zero doubles. Four years ago, Keith Mitchell came out of nowhere to best Fowler and Brooks Koepka by a stroke. He had only seven holes in which he didn't shoot par or better, and all seven were bogeys -- again, no doubles.
The greens are medium-large at an average of 7,000 square feet, though most of the golfers are just happy to be done with the poa of the West Coast and back on their beloved bermudagrass.
As for the weather, almost 10 inches of rain fell on the course across December and January, and those two months were the cloudiest in the area in more than eight decades, according to the superintendents' fact sheet. This week, high temps will about about 80 all week, though the forecast says it will be cloudy most of the time, with a chance of rain increasing as the tournament proceeds. And, of course, it will be pretty windy, blowing double digits every day.
Quiz time: What is a "Cognizant," exactly? What does Cognizant -- officially Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. -- actually do? The tournament website says Cognizant "engineers modern businesses. We help our clients modernize technology, reimagine processes and transform experiences so they can stay ahead in our fast-changing world. Together, we're improving everyday life." Um, does that really clear things up for the layman out there? Maybe this will help: The Wall Street Journal website says Cognizant "engages in providing information technology, consulting, and business process outsourcing services. Its services include application services, artificial intelligence, business process services, cloud solutions, and core modernization." Still don't know what Cognizant does? Yeah, us neither.
Key Stats to Winning at PGA National
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee/Driving Accuracy/Ball Striking
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green/SG: Approach/Greens in Regulation
• Strokes Gained: Around the Green/Scrambling
• Bogey Avoidance/Bogey Average
Past Champions
2023 – Chris Kirk
2022 – Sepp Straka
2021 – Matt Jones
2020 – Sungjae Im
2019 – Keith Mitchell
2018 – Justin Thomas
2017 – Rickie Fowler
2016 - Adam Scott
2015 – Padraig Harrington
2014 – Russell Henley
Champion's Profile
This week is different from many weeks when we want to identify the guys who make the most birdies. We have to forget that this week. Because at PGA National, it's all about minimizing mistakes -- not eliminating them, because they simply cannot be avoided there. We detailed earlier how recent winners couldn't avoid bogeys but did largely escape doubles. We're not looking for any cowboys this week. Make par and be happy. Some guys are better suited for that type of golf. Boring golf pays dividends this week. Hit the ball in the fairway, get it on the green, take your par or an occasional birdie and head to the next tee. Now you may be asking: "Really? Last year, two guys got to 14-under, that doesn't seem that hard. But Kirk and playoff loser Cole putted very well, especially Cole (2nd in SG: Putting to Kirk's 9th), and that doesn't happen every year. Last year might've been an aberration because scrambling didn't correlate to victory, as it did in nine of the previous 10 years, when the winner ranked in the top-10 in the field in scrambling. Kirk ranked fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green and the year before, Straka ranked fourth. In the four years before that, the winner ranked first. While putting has not always correlated to winning, a really good way to avoid a big number is to sink a 10-foot putt for par, or bogey. Golfodds.com posted the over/under on the winning score at 270.5 -- 13.5 under par. Remember, with PGA National a par-70 last year, that 270.5 was 9.5 under par.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Russell Henley - $10,200 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +2500)
We're skipping the top three guys on the DK board -- McIlroy at a whopping $12,200, free-swinging Young at $10,700 and off-to-a-slow-start Fitzpatrick at $10,600 -- and turning to the ever-reliable Henley. He's a former winner here, and he finished third his last time playing, albeit three years ago. But it stands to reason that the straight shooter would thrive here, especially since you can often get away with mediocre putting. Henley tied for fourth at Waialae and 24th at Riviera, two tracks where you need to put the ball in the fairway.
Eric Cole - $9,900 (+2500)
Cole returns to where it all began for him one year ago. A virtual unknown, he pushed Kirk to playoff before succumbing. Cole has not let up since, winning the 2022-23 Rookie of the Year Award and now standing at a career-best 36th in the world rankings. He's coming off a tie for 10th on the narrow fairways of Riviera. Cole is ranked 29th on Tour in SG: Approach. He played the first seven weeks of the season before finally taking last week off.
J.T. Poston - $9,800 (+3000)
Poston is off to a great start in 2024, already with three top-10s and two other top-20s. Two of the top-10s were at Waialae and Riviera. We need to say that Poston does not have so much as a top-25 in six career starts at PGA National. But he's really elevated his game in the past year to the point we think that will change this time around.
Byeong Hun An - $9,500 (+2800)
An has probably been licking his chops waiting for this week -- a course where ball-strikers rule and putting normally isn't a decider. Not that An is not putting better this season since going to a broomstick. He has two career top-5s at PGA National, back when his putting was far worse than it is now, and he tied for 21st a year ago when he was toiling on the Korn Ferry Tour.
Tier 2 Values
Chris Kirk - $9,400 (+4000)
The defending champion is ranked in the top-25 on Tour this season in SG: Off-the-Tee, Approach and Tee-to-Green. Gee, how did he ever win here? Kirk used to struggle at PGA National, but he's now figured it out, with a T25 three years ago and a T7 two years ago before winning in 2023. He also won at the Sentry to start the 2024 season.
Daniel Berger - $9,200 (+3500)
This is a bit of a hunch play, though we usually like our hunch play's price to start with an 8 or a 7, or even a 6. Why is Berger, only three tournaments into a comeback after a long layoff with a back injury, priced so high and with such short odds? The last two times Berger played here, in 2020 and 2022, he finished fourth. And he was runner-up back in 2015. He tied for 28th last time out at Phoenix, so it looks like the rust is coming off. Berger is ranked 15th on Tour in driving accuracy and just outside the top-50 in greens in regulation.
Corey Conners - $9,100 (+3500)
Conners is having an utterly predictable strokes-gained season: T12 in Off-the-Tee, T28 in Approach, T25 in Tee-to-Green -- and 165th in Putting. Shocking, we know. PGA National seems a perfect track for Conners' ball-striking-heavy game. It's a mystery why he hardly ever plays here, just twice all-time and not since 2020. He's coming off a top-25 at Riviera.
Stephan Jaeger - $8,800 (+3500)
Jaeger is playing the best golf of his career and is coming off his second tie for third already this season. He's made 22 straight cuts -- the fourth longest active stretch on Tour. Statistically, he's strong across the board. Jaeger tied for 14th here a year ago.
Tier 3 Values
Adam Svensson - $7,700 (+4000)
Svensson's two best finishes so far in 2024 were at the Sony (T30) and Genesis (T10), two tournaments where fairway placement is paramount. He's ranked top-40 on Tour in SG: Approach and Tee-to-Green, and just outside that in driving accuracy. Svensson ranks fifth in our model. He has strong bogey avoidance numbers. He tied for ninth here two years ago.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout - $7,600 (+5500)
The South African is off to a fast start in 2024, with a runner-up at the Amex and two other top-25s, including at Riviera. He is ranked third on Tour in SG: Approach and is also a top-50 putter. Bezuidenhout played here the past two years with two made cuts, including a T25 in 2022.
Brendon Todd - $7,600 (+7000)
It's a short course, so our radar naturally gravitates toward Todd. He is ranked only 185th on Tour in driving distance, which puts him at a huge disadvantage most weeks. Not this one. He's also ranked 12th in driving accuracy and 17th in SG: Putting. He lands in the top-10 in our model as a near-perfect fit for this course. That's why it's so curious he's played here just once in the past seven years.
Doug Ghim - $7,000 (+6000)
Ghim may finally, finally be turning a corner. The past three starts he's finished T13, T12 and, last week at Mexico, T8. Incredibly, Ghim is ranked sixth on Tour in SG: Total. That's because of his normally outstanding Tee-to-Green game, but this year he's also putting better, and is ranked 83rd.
Long-Shot Values
Austin Eckroat - $6,700 (+10000)
Eckroat has not been lighting up in 2024. But he has been making cuts -- four out of five with one top-25 -- and has been proficient at hitting fairways (ranked 27th in driving accuracy) and with his wedge play (10th in SG: Around-the-Green). That should be more than enough to reach the weekend.
Carson Young - $6,700 (+11000)
Young has made four straight cuts, including a T17 at the Amex and T8 last week at Mexico. But what we really like is this: He's ranked 14th in SG: Approach, 26th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 27th in greens in regulation and 33rd in driving accuracy. You'd think his putting would be horrid, but it's not. It's not great, ranked 119th, but there are others far worse. Young tied for 29th here a year ago.
Justin Lower - $6,400 (+13000)
Lower has made the cut in all five of his starts in 2024, highlighted by last week's tie for third. He's ranked 17th on Tour in SG: Approach, 33rd in Tee-to-Green and a better-than-average 62nd in driving accuracy. Lower made the cut in his only previous PGA National appearance two years ago.
Extreme Long-Shot Values
Sam Ryder - $5,900 (+18000)
We're not sure what's up with the sudden pricing into the $5000s, which we saw last week too. But as long as it's in DraftKings games, we'll run with it. Ryder has not played great in 2024. Again, he's one of those short hitters in a bind from the get-go at many tracks. But he's ranked 27th in driving accuracy and 44th in SG: Approach. That's not a $5,900 golfer, even one who can't putt a lick. Ryder has always been known for his accuracy going back to his Korn Ferry days. That might explain his top-10s here in 2021 and 2022.
Padraig Harrington - $5,400 (+40000)
The 52-year-old Harrington is coming off a made cut last week at the Mexico in his PGA Tour season debut. When he wasn't busy tearing up the Champions Tour last year, he was making seven of eight cuts on the PGA Tour. One of those was at PGA National. Oh, Harrington also won here in 2015.
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