THE OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP
Purse: $17M
Winner's Share: $3.1M
FedEx Cup Points: 750 to the Winner
Location: Portrush, Northern Ireland
Course: Royal Portrush Golf Club (Dunluce Links)
Yardage: 7,381
Par: 71
2024 champion: Xander Schauffele (Royal Troon)
Tournament Preview
When the R&A made the historic decision to award the 2019 Open Championship to Royal Portrush, staging the world's oldest golf tournament outside of England and Scotland for only the second time, it mainfested into a near-perfect week. Ireland's very own Shane Lowry won the Claret Jug, setting off a jubilant celebration and uniting two nations -- Ireland and Northern Ireland -- as had rarely happened before.
It was "near-perfect" because "perfect" would've been native son Rory McIlroy becoming the Champion Golfer of the Year. That ended in total disaster, beginning with his very first shot.
The Open now returns to Royal Portrush for the third time (also 1951), with McIlroy and Lowry front and center among the most prominent storylines, along with Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm and others.
- McIlroy: From the moment Portrush was chosen until the tournament began, a crescendo built throughout the UK to see the homegrown star win in his own backyard. McIlroy already had the course record, a 61 he shot there as a 16-year-old amateur. But the pressure proved too great. McIlroy astoundingly hit his opening tee shot out of bounds, wound up with a quadruple-bogey 8 on the first hole, then later had a double bogey before closing his round with a triple for an unfathomable 8-over 79. It's hard to tell whether it was good or bad that the next day McIlroy shot 65 ... to miss the cut by one stroke. So what happens this year? Presumably, it will go at least somewhat better, with the enormity of an Open in Northern Ireland somewhat reduced by this being the second one just six years later. McIlroy also has won another major since then -- the career-Grand-Slam-completing Masters -- to greatly reduce the major urgency factor. Augusta was one of the Mount Everests on McIlroy's bucket list; he said Royal Portrush is another (along with an Open win at St. Andrews and a U.S. Open win at Pebble Beach).
- Scheffler: The world No. 1 wasn't even a full-time PGA Tour member the last time the Open was at Portrush. He's now played in four of them, with two top-25s and two top-10s, with last year's tie for seventh his high-water mark. In other words, Scheffler has yet to truly contend at an Open, and this surely will be the hardest major for him to win. That doesn't mean he won't, because he will. And more than one. And maybe this year.
- Rahm: The whole "LIV Golf sucks the competitive fire out of you" narrative didn't sit well with, well, anyone associated with LIV. Rahm surely was non-competitive in his first couple of majors after he left the PGA Tour. However, a quick check of recent history shows that Rahm has three top-10s and a top-15 in the past four majors, beginning with last year's T7 at Royal Troon. He has also previously finished co-runner-up and T3 in Opens, plus T11 at Portrush. In other words, the Claret Jug has been as close to Rahm's grasp without actually being in his grasp.
- Lowry: With COVID developing in the months after Royal Portrush resulting in the cancelation of the 2020 Open, Lowry ended up being Champion Golfer of Two Years. In a way, he's still riding on Cloud 9 and maybe always will, the magnitude of his victory that great. So it's fair to imagine how big the pressure might be for Lowry returning to Portrush. Will it overwhelm him? We might find out on the very first hole, much like we did with McIlroy. Par would be fantastic.
- Xander Schauffele: Oh, yeah, the defending champion, the guy who won two majors last year. His victory made it three American champions in the past four Opens. Could he win again? Sure, though Schauffele has not had a sniff of the winner's circle this year in what has been his worst season on Tour in almost a decade.
- Tommy Fleetwood: If McIlroy and Lowry aren't in the mix, the Portrush galleries would pivot to other UK guys, with the genial Fleetwood perhaps at the top of the list. He's come close to winning on the PGA Tour but of course hasn't. He's come close to winning the Open -- second to Lowry at Portrush -- but hasn't. At this point, continually hearing about never winning on the PGA Tour, it might actually be easier for the Englishman to win an Open than a regular Tour event.
- Jordan Spieth: The chances of Speith winning are fairly slim. But we wanted to place him here for two reasons: 1) He generates interest and clicks like few other golfers and 2) He's been darn great in the Open. Since winning at Royal Birkdale in 2017, Spieth has finished top-10 or top-25 every single year. That even included last year, when he was playing with a wrist injury so severe it would need to be surgically repaired less than two months later.
Okay, let's talk Portrush, on the northern tip of Northern Ireland hard by the North Atlantic. It's an 1888 design by the legendary Henry Colt, with Martin Ebert renovating in 2017 and doing some further small modifications since the last Open there, notably to the fourth tee. In 2019, Portrush was the fourth hardest course on the PGA Tour. Lowry was the only golfer in double figures, winning at 15-under to finish six clear of Fleetwood.
The Dunluce Links, named after the nearby ruins of the medieval Dunluce Castle and one of two 18-hole courses on the property, will again be front and center. This links golf through and through. The one difference from other Open courses is that there are a mere 57 bunkers, the fewest in the Open rota by far. They are still deep and penal, just not a lot of them.
But there is plenty of trouble awaiting the golfers, with an awkward stance on many shots. There are undulations throughout the fescue fairways and undulations on the fescue greens, which feature run-offs and collection areas. The greens average a medium-size 5,400 square feet, though in links golf sometimes it's hard to tell where the fairway ends and the green begins, and putter can be used from far away.
There are three par-5s on this par-71, ranging from the very short 532 yards to 607, which is still not overly long by today's standards. All three appear in the first 12 holes. Of the 11 par-4s, only five them are at least 450 yards. And of the four par-3s, only one exceeds 200 yards, though it does so by a lot. That would be the 236-yard 16th.
Importantly, there is a lot of out of bounds, as McIlroy illustrated. There is internal OB on both sides of No. 1, OB on the right side of Nos. 2 and 4, OB behind the green on No. 5 and there's OB again on No. 18. No. 5 is a risk/reward drivable par-4 at 372 yards, and six years ago it featured four eagles but also 13 double bogeys. The hardest hole in 2019 was the 475-yard 11th. No. 12 was the easiest hole, a par-5 at a mere 532 yards, but it also is one of the two holes with water on the course.
The DraftKings prices are fascinating. Scheffler landed at an eye-popping $14,200, $2,700 more than McIlroy and $3,800 clear of Rahm. $3,800? That's like half a golfer. But prices go all the way down to $5,000, and almost 80 percent of the field is under $7,000. So if Scheffler is in your plans, it's easily doable, even at that enormous price. As always, some very good golfers fall into the $8,000s, $7,000s and even $6,000s. There are only 32 golfers at $7,000 or above.
As for the weather, showers are in the forecast every day -- and not just during the tournament, also during the practice rounds. But that's to be expected and they should be able to play through most of it. Otherwise, high temperatures will be in the upper 60s and the wind is forecast to be moderate, though we'll believe that when we see it.
Key Stats to Winning at Royal Portrush
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Driving Accuracy/Ball Striking
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green/Greens in Regulation
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Major Experience
Past Champions
2024 - Xander Schauffele (Royal Troon)
2023 - Brian Harman (Royal Liverpool)
2022 - Cameron Smith (St. Andrews)
2021 - Collin Morikawa (Royal St. George's)
2020 - No Tournament
2019 - Shane Lowry (Royal Portrush)
2018 - Francesco Molinari (Carnoustie)
2017 - Jordan Spieth (Royal Birkdale)
2016 - Henrik Stenson (Royal Troon)
2015 - Zach Johnson (St. Andrews)
Champion's Profile
The key stat that stood out for Lowry was greens in regulation. He hit a remarkable 59 of 72 for almost 80 percent. Remarkable in any conditions, but especially in windy weather. Tony Finau, who finished third, and Lee Westwood, who tied for fourth, hit 56 of 72 each for 75 percent. So you can see how significantly GIR correlated to success.
Lowry also ranked 12th in driving distance at an average of 301 yards and 22nd in fairway accuracy, hitting 62.5 percent. His scrambling was so-so, ranking 39th, but he also was second in the field in putting average.
When you get the ball on the green as efficiently as Lowry did, that minimizes the need to scramble. But short of that, great wedge play will go a long way in deciding things, especially with all the greenside run-offs.
For what it's worth, three of the four Open winners since Lowry have been American.
As is usually the case with majors, this tournament will be decided by those who make the fewest mistakes. Lowry led the field with 23 birdies vs. only eight bogeys. Fleetwood had only six bogeys, but one was a double, vs. 16 birdies.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
$10,000 and up
Rory McIlroy - $11,500 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +700)
We won't know what is going on in McIlroy's head when he steps to the first tee on Thursday until we see that opening drive. But how could he not, even for a millisecond, think back to that moment six years ago? Nonetheless, McIlroy is a pick here and Scheffler is not. Scheffler should do well, but how well? And how well for $14,200? McIlroy has an Open track record not matched by many. He is playing great this season and was runner-up at the Scottish Open.
Jon Rahm - $10,400 (+1200)
It was at Royal Troon a year ago, after tying for 45th at the Masters, missing the cut at the PGA and not even playing in the U.S. Open because of injury, that Rahm erased the LIV narrative. He tied for seventh. He didn't contend for the title, but he reversed that ugly trend. And since then, his three majors this season have gone T14-T8-T7. It was only at the PGA, where he challenged Scheffler, that he had a chance to win -- but the past four majors are enough to confidently say that Rahm is back to his old self.
$9,000-$9,900
Tommy Fleetwood - $9,500 (+2800)
Fleetwood may have one of the best links game of anyone in the world, and excellent tee-to-green player. He is ranked an elite third on the PGA Tour in SG: Tee-to-Green. He's eighth in SG; Approach, 17th in Around-the-Green and 33rd in Putting. We know Fleetwood was runner-up to Lowry at Portrush. He also finished fourth in 2022 and 10th in 2023. After missing his first three Open cuts at the beginning of his career, he has run off 6 of 7. Fleetwood has five top-10s in 15 starts on the PGA Tour this season.
Robert MacIntyre - $9,000 (+3500)
MacIntyre has been playing great of late -- including a runner-up at the U.S. Open. He didn't have his best stuff last week at the Scottish Open, but that's understandable. He was the defending champion in his home country and the pressure had to be great. MacIntyre has not missed a cut in five Opens, with two top-10s, including at Portrush.
$8,000-$8,900
Tyrrell Hatton - $8,900 (+3000)
It's hard to gauge Hatton because he's with LIV. But over at Data Golf -- which some believe is more accurate than the OWGR -- he's ranked ninth in the world. The thing with Hatton is, his game and his temper are as volatile as the UK weather. He's just as capable of finishing sixth, as he did at Royal Portrush in 2019, and finishing fourth, as he just did at the U.S. Open for his best major ever, as he is of missing the cut seven times in 12 career Opens, which he's also done. But the upside is undeniable, as it is with this next golfer.
Viktor Hovland - $8,300 (+3000)
Hovland brings the upside that Hatton does, maybe more, but without the volatility. Of course, without the wedge game, either. He's incredibly cheap for someone who would surprise very few people by winning this tournament. Hovland finished T12-T4-T13 in his first three Opens before missing the cut last year. He tied for third at the U.S. Open last month and just missed a top-10 at the Scottish Open last week. He won earlier this year at the Valspar. And still, it has not been a great year for Hovland, which is one reason this price is so low.
$7,000-$7,900
Matt Fitzpatrick - $7,800 (+5500)
The $7,800 price is very favorable, and his 70-1 earlier odds really stood out. Fitzpatrick can absolutely win this tournament, unlike, in our estimation, guys with similar odds or even shorter. We aren't the only ones thinking that, as he is now down to 55-1. Fitzpatrick has been a different golfer the past 2-3 months. In his past six starts, he has made every cut, had four top-25s and two other top-10s, including T8 at the PGA Championship and T4 at the Scottish Open. Fitzpatrick has made the cut in 17 of his past 19 majors and five straight at the Open, including a T20 at Portrush.
Jordan Spieth - $7,700 (+5500)
Spieth's Open track record is better than most, and his odds of 45-1 should be an indication. Since winning his third major title at Royal Birkdale in 2017, he's finished in the top-25 at the Open every year, including last year when playing on an injured wrist needing surgery. It's often hard to gauge how Spieth is playing, but Data Golf last week put him at No. 22 in the world, ahead of Ludvig Aberg and Lowry, to name just two.
Cameron Young - $7,200 (+8000)
In Young's first 11 starts of the season, he missed six cuts. Since that last MC at the Masters, he's made eight straight, four of them top-25s, including three in the top-7 -- notably a tie for fourth at the U.S. Open. He's given himself a real shot to get back to the TOUR Championship (currently 37th in points). Young acclimated to links golf quickly, finishing as runner-up to Smith in the 2022 Open at St. Andrews. He tied for eighth the next year and for 31st last year.
Ryan Fox - $7,100 (+9000)
We're conditioned to think that this is a long-shot price, or at least bordering on a long shot. But the DK price-setters actually think very highly of Fox. There are only 27 golfers costlier than him, so he's borderline top-25 in their eyes. Ours too, maybe even higher. This has been a breakthrough year for the veteran Kiwi, with two PGA Tour wins and a top-20 at the U.S. Open. He tied for 25th at the Open last year. He tied for 16th at Portrush in 2019.
$6,000-$6,900
Sergio Garcia - $6,700 (+17000)
It's a big deal that Garcia is back in the Open for the first time since 2022. He is one of the greatest European golfers ever and should be warmly received. He qualified this year via the LIV standings. This season, Garcia missed the cut at the Masters and then tied for 67th at the PGA Championship. This will be hiss 26th Open. He's missed only five cuts and has finished in the top-10 10 times -- and top-5 five times.
Harry Hall - $6,400 (+11000)
There's a reason Hall's odds are so short -- he's a dang good golfer. Not to mention an Englishman. Hall continued a great season last week with a tie for 17th in the Scottish Open. That was his seventh straight top-25. He is ranked second on the PGA Tour in SG: Putting, 14th in Around-the-Green -- and ninth in Total. Ninth! Impressive stuff. Hall played in just his second carer major two months ago at the PGA and tied for 19th.
Laurie Canter - $6,200 (+40000)
Canter is one of the few golfers to make it out of LIV and live to tell about it (we kid, we kid!). Seriously, he is a former LIV player now back on the DP World Tour. All he's done this year is win a tournament, plus finish as a runner-up and solo third. And then he tied for seventh a couple of weeks back at the BMW International before a T34 at the Scottish Open.
$5,000-$5,900
Kristoffer Reitan - $5,900 (+40000)
Reitan was a pick last week at the Scottish Open at $6,900 and he delivered with a top-15. He's been one of the best players on the DP World Tour this season and very possibly could be on the PGA Tour next season, thanks to a win, two runners-up and more. The 27-year-old Norwegian began the year ranked 425th in the OWGR and is now inside the top 100. But this will be a big step up in class for Reitan; he's been in only one major before, and that was way back in 2018, a missed cut at the U.S. Open.
Martin Couvra - $5,900 (+40000)
Couvra also was a pick last week, also at $6,900. While he didn't have as good of a week as Reitan, he did make the cut. Also like Reitan, it's looking like the Frenchman, only 22, will be on the PGA Tour next season. Couvra has a win and a runner-up on the DP World Tour this season. The Open will be his first career major.
Like what you see in Len's recommendations? See how they stack up alongside other golfers in RotoWire's PGA DFS Lineup Optimizer.
