This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP
Purse: $20M
Winner's Share: $3.6M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Charlotte, N.C.
Course: Quail Hollow Club
Yardage: 7,538
Par: 71
2022 champion: Max Homa (TPC Potomac)
Tournament Preview
With the breakneck pace of the PGA Tour in 2023, with the onslaught of designated tournaments coming at the golfers in rapid fashion, it's only a matter of time before fatigue sets in. That time appears to be now. Or ... maybe it's not fatigue but common sense. Either way, when the latest $20 million tournament takes place this week, a bunch of the top guys won't be there, most notably the two best players in the world.
Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler head the list of no-shows just two weeks before the second major of the year, the PGA Championship at Oak Hill in Rochester, N.Y. Hideki Matsuyama announced that his nagging neck injury is flaring and he hopes to be ready for the PGA. Others in the top 50 of the world rankings skipping this week's tournament are Billy Horschel, Tom Hoge, Russell Henley, Justin Rose, Lucas Herbert and Aaron Wise.
We had written previously that the deluge of designated tournaments might not have been affecting the players significantly in the early going of the season, but there was no way of knowing the impact later on, such as in July for the Open Championship or in August for the three playoff events. Jordan Spieth talked after the Masters about being mentally fatigued -- though days later he went out and finished runner-up at the RBC Heritage. For all of this week's absentees, this might simply be a case of load management, as they call it in the NBA. Except in the NBA, the players still get paid while the golfers taking a pass are also taking a pass on a potential big chunk of the $20 million purse. The schedule is front-loaded with designated events, so breaking now makes perfect sense, although Wells Fargo tournament organizers might beg to differ.
It's important to note that players are allowed to skip one designated event and still be eligible for their full PIP (Player Impact Program) bonus money, should they earn any.
Which brings us to Rory McIlroy. The world No. 3 will be play for the first time since the Masters and, as they say, will have some 'splainin to do this week.
The three-time Wells Fargo champion was the point person in getting the all top guys on board with the designated-tournament format as the PGA Tour tries to fend off LIV Golf. Not only did McIlroy skip the first designated event of the year, the Tournament of Champions, which was his right, however bad a look it was, he then became the first one to pass on a second, the RBC Heritage after the Masters. It came on the heels of a horrible missed cut at Augusta and without explanation. There have been reports that McIlroy was docked $3 million from his $12 million PIP haul from last year and, while that has not been confirmed by the Tour, it serves as a good indicator that the absence was not injury-related, or at least the only injury was to his psyche. (If you are injured, as Matsuyama is saying, the absence won't count against the one you are allowed.) Somewhat stunningly, McIlroy was not on the pre-tournament interview schedule, though reporters still should have an opportunity to question him, just in a less formal setting.
Let's not cry too much for the Wells Fargo. It still will have its best field ever. McIlroy heads the 156-man contingent and he'll be joined by Spieth, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Max Homa (who won at Quail Hollow in 2019), Justin Thomas (who won the 2017 PGA at Quail Hollow) and last week's winner, Tony Finau.
Interestingly, Quail Hollow has played host to the Wells Fargo just once in the past three years. It was a pandemic casualty in 2020 and last year the tournament was played at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm to make way for the Presidents Cup in Charlotte last fall. So there will be quite a few guys in the field who have not played Quail Hollow before, or maybe only once in the past three years.
At more than 7,500 yards for a par-71, Quail Hollow usually is the biggest brute on the schedule. So this week will will serve as a pretty good tuneup for the PGA at Oak Hill in two weeks. Next week's Byron Nelson Classic at TPC Craig Ranch isn't a close fit, and most of the top guys will skip it.
Quail Hollow is a 1961 George Cobb design with a 2016 Tom Fazio renovation. It normally ranks among the top-10 hardest courses on Tour. In 2021 and 2019, it ranked eighth and in 2018, fifth. In 2017 when it hosted the PGA Championship, it was the No. 1 hardest track all season. Of course, the highlight is the closing three-hole stretch known as The Green Mile: two par-4s of about 500 yards sandwiching a long par-3 over water. Just about everyone would sign up right now for four straight days of par-par-par. The three holes got progressively harder in 2021 with the 494-yard 18th playing nearly a half-shot over par. There was an enormous total of 80 double bogeys or worse and Nos. 16, 17 and 18 in 2021. There were only 19 birdies all week on 18. Before the closing stretch, there's the 344-yard drivable 14th that saw four eagles in 2021, so the final five holes could deliver some wild swings on the leaderboard.
Half the holes are par-4s of at least 450 yards (okay, one of them is 449) -- and five of those are 480-plus. Three of the par-3s are 190 or more, with No. 6 topping out at a just-not-fair 249. The key to Quail Hollow success was always the par-5s -- birdie the heck out of them, take your pars most everywhere else. But three years ago at the PGA, they turned a par-72 into a par-71, and now there are only three par-5s. It's still critical to score on those holes, none of which reaches 600 yards. Even when there were four par-5s, sometimes the winning score was single digits. That tells you all you need to know about Quail Hollow. McIlroy won at 10-under-par in 2021, Homa won at 15-under in 2019 -- but was three clear of the runner-up -- and Jason Day won at 12-under in 2018. Technically, Homa is the defending champion for his win last year at Avenel.
The bermudagrass greens with poa trivialis overseed are large, averaging 6,578 square feet, according to the official golf course superintendents sheet, with 61 bunkers and four water hazards encompassing seven holes.
As for the weather, conditions look warm and dry with light wind, at least until the weekend, when showers are forecast both days.
Key Stats to Winning at Quail Hollow
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation/Approach from 175-200 yards
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
• Bogey Avoidance
• Par-4 Efficiency 450-500 yards
Past Champions
2022 - Max Homa (TPC Avenel)
2021 - Rory McIlroy (Quail Hollow)
2020 - None
2019 - Max Homa (Quail Hollow)
2018 - Jason Day (Quail Hollow)
2017 - Brian Harman (Eagle Point GC)
2016 - James Hahn (Quail Hollow)
2015 - Rory McIlroy (Quail Hollow)
2014 - J.B. Holmes (Quail Hollow)
2013 - Derek Ernst (Quail Hollow)
Champion's Profile
Long, long and long. Did we mention long? Quail Hollow favors the biggest hitters. McIlroy was second in driving distance in 2021 and first in his 2015 win. Thomas led in distance in winning the 2017 PGA Championship there. Day ranked only 14th in the field in 2018, but he averaged a hefty 325 yards off the tee. Imagine that, 13 guys better than 325? Homa averaged "only" 312 yards and ranked 21st in the field in 2019, but here's what the difference was for him: He ranked first in the field by a wide margin in Strokes Gained: Putting and made more tha 380 feet worth of putts. Day also had his short game going, ranking second in both scrambling and SG: Putting, which alone will put you in contention just about every time. ... Last year, McIlroy ranked only 76th in fairways hit -- that sounds terrible, right? But he still was third in the field in greens in regulation, 10th in Strokes Gained: Approach and ninth in SG: Tee-to-Green. He also was third in SG: Putting. Those are great, great numbers, and still he got to only 10 under par. Abraham Ancer was runner-up at 9-under, and he ranked only 43rd in driving distance. The top-four guys on the leaderboard -- Viktor Hovland and Keith Mitchell tied for third at 8-under -- all were great at greens in regulation, Approach and Tee-to-Green. ... McIlroy was 6-under on the three par-5s, Thomas scored 7-under on the par-5s en route to winning the PGA at 8-under, while Day picked up 9 of his 12 strokes under par on the 5s. Homa was also at 9-under, meaning he was 6-under on the other 60 holes, which is a great score. If you can pick up a few strokes on the par-4s over the course of the week, that's the difference between winning and contending. ... Golfodds.com puts the over/under for the winning score at 271.5 -- 12.5 under par.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Rory McIlroy - $11,100 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +750)
McIlroy has played only six times on the PGA Tour so far in 2023, and he hasn't been great. He was runner-up at Bay Hill, but that's it if you want to exclude the solo third at the Match Play. He missed the cut at THE PLAYERS and then the Masters. He's had plenty of time to work out his issues since Augusta, whatever they are. If he can get better anywhere it's Quail Hollow, where he has won three times (2010, '15, '21). Mind you, he hasn't been bad -- just bad for him. He's ranked first in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green over the past 24 rounds. It helps him that Rahm and Scheffler aren't here.
Xander Schauffele - $10,700 (+1600)
Schauffele finished T14 in his last visit to Quail Hollow in 2021. This year, our model shows he's second in the field in SG: Approach over the past 24 rounds, plus top-10 in both Tee-to-Green and bogey avoidance, and also top-15 in both 175-200 and par-4 450-500. Schauffele hasn't missed a cut in 2023 and is coming off a T10 at the Masters and a solo fourth at the RBC.
Tony Finau - $10,200 (+1400)
Finau checks in at No. 1 in our model -- first in the field in SG: Approach, second in both Tee-to-Green and 175-200 over the past 24 rounds. Normally, we'd fade last week's winner. But Finau was so good at Mexico, and has been good all season, and the win was about as stress-free as a PGA Tour win could be. The one concern? Finau has never finished better than 16th here in six tries. But most of those are a number of years back.
Tier 2 Values
Viktor Hovland - $9,200 (+2000)
As we all know by now, Hovland big weakness is scrambling. The best remedy for that -- outside of getting better at it, which he is -- is superior approach play. Sort of like what happened two years ago, when he tied for third here. Hovland is ranked 15th on Tour in SG: Tee-to-Green -- and that includes Around-the-Green. He's had some great results of late: tie for 10th at Bay Hill, tie for third at THE PLAYERS, tie for seventh at the Masters.
Jason Day - $9,000 (+2500)
Day might be the biggest surprise on Tour this season, rising from oblivion to rejoin the game's best. He is ranked in the top-five in this field over the past 24 rounds in three key stats this week: scrambling, par-4 450-500 efficiency and bogey avoidance. Impressive. We have not seen Day since his T39 at the Masters, a result that ended a run of seven straight top-20s. He was Quail Hollow winner in 2018, a lifetime ago for Day.
Justin Thomas - $8,900 (+2200)
The missed cut at the Masters can't be minimized, but otherwise Thomas has been seemingly close. Close to what? Well, in nine starts in 2023, he has seven top-25s, two of which were top-10s. That's similar to Finau's 2023, and Finau was close before winning in Mexico on Sunday. Thomas checks in at No. 3 in our model and, if that's a surprise, it's because he's so good from 175 to 200 and on long par-4s. Besides, you can sort of get away with so-so putting if everything else is working. Remember, Thomas won the PGA at Quail Hollow in 2017.
Rickie Fowler - $8,800 (+3500)
Things are starting to get serious for Fowler, who is nearing a return to the top-50 in the world. He just couldn't get there is time for the Masters. He has a great history at Quail Hollow, with three top-fives from 2016 to 2019, which includes the 2017 PGA. Fowler is ranked fifth in this field over his past 24 rounds in what's always the most important stat of them all: Strokes Gained: Approach.
Sahith Theegala - $8,200 (+4500)
Theegala has never played Quail Hollow before, but that hasn't stopped him at new courses over the first two seasons of his career, especially this season. He has four top-10s in 2023, including his past two starts at the Masters and RBC, plus an earlier T4 at uber-long Torrey Pines. Theegala is above average pretty much everywhere except accuracy off the tee.
Tier 3 Values
Keith Mitchell - $7,800 (+6000)
Aside from McIlroy and Homa, the past two winners at Quail Hollow, no one has done better than Mitchell, who was third in 2021 and eighth in 2019. He's had a very 2023, with a string of eight made cuts ended at the RBC Heritage. Included in there was a top-5 at Riviera, plus a top-25 at Bay Hill. Mitchell drives the ball very far, ranking eighth on Tour in distance. He's also sixth in SG: Off-the-Tee and first overall in Total Driving. That explains his Quail Hollow success.
Hayden Buckley - $7,400 (+13000)
Buckley had a strong season going until missing four straight cuts in February and March. But to his credit, he's on another roll with top-10s in his past two stroke play starts at the Valero and RBC Heritage. Like Mitchell, Buckley is great with driver in hand. He's not quite as long, but he is ranked fourth in SG: Off-the-Tee and sixth in Total Driving. Buckley checks in at No. 30 in our model, with scrambling being his only weak spot.
Stephan Jaeger - $7,300 (+13000)
Jaeger has done a good job of reaching the weekend, making 14 of 17 cuts this season. He doesn't have many high finishes, which is a bit perplexing. After all, he's ranked ninth in SG: Around-the-Green, 19th in greens in regulation and 32nd in SG: Tee-to-Green. He's not a great putter but also not terrible, ranking 123rd. Jaeger is coming off a top-20 at Mexico. He landed at an eye-popping 13th in our model.
Sam Ryder - $7,200 (+18000)
Since contending for the title at Torrey Pines -- another very long track -- Ryder has kept his foot on the pedal. He's made seven of nine cuts beginning with the Farmers, with five top-20s, two of which were top-fives. Ryder's weakest club in his driver, but that hasn't hurt him. He's ranked second on Tour in SG: Putting. He's also ranked sixth in the field in bogey avoidance over his past 24 rounds.
Long-Shot Values
Will Gordon - $6,900 (+15000)
Gordon is ranked 33rd in our model and, if it weren't for his horrible scrambling, he'd be higher. He drives the ball far, and is one of the best in the entire field from 175-200 yards. Gordon is coming off a top-25 at Mexico, and he's also made recent cuts at THE PLAYERS, Bay Hill and the Valspar.
Joseph Bramlett - $6,900 (+25000)
At age 35, Bramlett is having his finest season. He's made 13 of 18 cuts with five top-25s and three top-10s, including last week at Mexico (T10). He hits the ball very far (19th in driving distance) but not very straight (189th in accuracy) That may be acceptable this week. Bramlett is top-40 in both SG: Approach and Around-the-Green, and that helps him land at No. 28 in the entire field in our model. He tied for 13th earlier this year at Torrey Pines, another very long track.
Dylan Wu - $6,700 (+30000)
Wu enters on a sponsor invite having made eight straight cuts, including T15 last week at Mexico. That stretch also includes THE PLAYERS. He's not a long hitter, but not really short, either, ranking 124th on tour at just over 295 yards. There's enough good in his game to compensate there -- he's in the top-100 in every strokes-gained category (include Off-the-Tee).
Alejandro Tosti - $6,500 (+50000)
We turned to Tosti last week at Mexico based on his strong Korn Ferry form, and he tied for 10th to earn a spot in the Wells Fargo field. Even with a weak field, Mexico was a big step up from the KF Tour, and now this week will be an enormous leap from Mexico. But there's not a lot to like down in this price range in a designated event that goes 156 deep. The 26-year-old Argentine who played at the University of Florida is ranked top-50 in the field in all of our key stats except approach from 175-200. We know that includes Korn Ferry play, but it's still encouraging.
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