This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
WM PHOENIX OPEN
Purse: $8.8M
Winner's Share: $1.584M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Scottsdale, Ariz.
Course: TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)
Yardage: 7,261
Par: 71
2023 champion: Scottie Scheffler
Tournament Preview
If there ever were a year the WM Phoenix Open would take a big hit -- with Signature Events the week before and the week after -- this would've been it. But no. The most rip-roaring, rollicking week in golf is schedule-proof, Signature-proof, Super Bowl-proof and, apparently, everything-proof.
Two-time defending champion Scottie Scheffler headlines another quality field on the PGA Tour, alongside Max Homa, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Matt Fitzpatrick, Rickie Fowler and last week's winner, Wyndham Clark. And it would've been even better had Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele not pulled out on Monday morning. Still, five of the top-10 golfers in the world rankings and 11 of the top-25 are in the Arizona desert for another thrill ride disguised as a professional golf tournament.
And that's despite the full 132-man field having to make due sharing an $8 million purse instead of $20 million like last year, when this was a Signature Event.
Scheffler defeated an even more-boffo field back then to go back-to-back, and now on Super Sunday he will try to become the first three-peat winner on Tour since Steve Stricker at the 2009-11 John Deere Classic.
Other notable names trying to put a dent in Scheffler's charge are Brian Harman, Tom Kim, fan favorite Sahith Theegala, Cameron Young, Sam Burns and Sungjae Im. Daniel Berger (back injury) and 2018 Phoenix winner Gary Woodland (brain surgery) continue on the comeback trail, and victorious European Ryder Cup captain Luke Donald was given one of four sponsor invites. Will he be paired with his U.S. counterpart, Zach Johnson, who continues to play on his final career-earnings exemption? We shall see.
Not that we need to tell you, but the epicenter of TPC Scottsdale is the raucous-beyond-words 163-yard 16th hole with some 15,000 fans ringing the amphitheater-like setting while fully lathered from dawn to dusk. In all, hundreds of thousands of fans will converge on the Stadium Course across the weeklong event, and some say that makes it the world's largest sporting event outside of the Olympics and World Cup.
The WM Phoenix Open -- by the way, that's the official shortened name as of two years ago -- began as the Arizona Open back in 1932, thus making it the fifth-oldest event on Tour. As you'll recall, three-time major champion Ralph Guldahl won that inaugural tournament, kick-starting a Hall of Fame list of champions: Byron Nelson, Ben Hogan, Bobby Locke, Jimmy Demaret, Billy Casper, Ken Venturi, Arnold Palmer, Jack Nicklaus, Johnny Miller and Phil Mickelson, among others. For one year, 1950, the tournament was even known as the Ben Hogan Open (it was won by Demaret).
The tournament has been at it present location at the Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale for 37 years. The Tom Weiskopf-design is such a fun track. The aforementioned par-3 16th is part of a five-hole finish that lends itself to big swings atop the leaderboard. The 490-yard 14th was the second-hardest hole on the course last year, the 15th is a 553-yard reachable par-5, the 17th is a 332-yard risk/reward drivable/water-filled par-4 and No. 18 is a 442-yarder with more water and the famed church pew bunkers.
When you add in the 472-yard 11th as the hardest hole on the course last year, it's easy to understand why there were 80 double bogeys or worse on the back nine alone, more than twice as many as on the front. Twenty of those 80 came just on No. 11. The back played nearly a full shot harder a year ago.
But the 16th is where it all happens. There were no holes-in-one last year, after there were two a couple of years ago. But those weren't even the most memorable moments on 16 in 2022. That honor was reserved for Harry Higgs and Joel Dahmen. Who can forget that they stripped off their shirts and ran around the green waving them, somehow raising the decibel level that already was at Defcon 1. (Deafcon?)
TPC Scottsdale plays shorter than the official distance of 7,261, thanks to some 1,500 feet of altitude in the Phoenix area, and has only three par-5s, none of which reaches 560 yards. It really is a ball-striker's track, and some pretty bad putters have won there through the years (though Scheffler wasn't one of them in his two victories). The poa greens are firm and large, a little more than 7,000 square feet. There are only 67 bunkers across all 18 holes, six of which feature water.
Let's talk lineup construction. The winner is usually a big-name guy, as you'll see below, so if you can add two or even three of them to your lineup, that would be a prudent play. With a field of only 132, and 65 and ties making the cut, more than half the field should reach the weekend. That includes quite a few golfers in the $6000s, which lends itself to taking some risks on lower-priced guys -- and conversely being able to stack multiple high-priced guys.
As for the weather, much of what was at Pebble Beach and made its way to Southern California is now en route to the Phoenix area. It will be chilly in the 50s all week and rainy all the way to Saturday before tapering off on Sunday. Unlike at Pebble, the winds are forecast to be light. There will be some downright cold mornings, with temperatures possibly dipping into the 30s.
This will be the second WM Phoenix Open since Weiskopf passed away in August 2022 at age 79. Besides being a 16-time PGA Tour winner, 1973 British Open winner, four-time Masters runner-up and 1995 Senior Open champ, Weiskopf was the TPC Scottsdale course architect in 1986 with his renovation coming in 2014. Weiskopf's legacy intersects all across golf, but his most enduring impact likely will be on display every year in the second week in February at The Greatest Show on Grass.
WMPO Factoid I: It was at this tournament six years ago that Johnny Miller signed off for the last time. He left after the third round, so as not to overshadow the end of the tournament, and was replaced by Paul Azinger, who himself is now gone from NBC, though not of his own volition.
WMPO Factoid II: One of the greatest weeks by a golfer in PGA Tour history took place here in 2001. In the strongest Phoenix field ever before last year's Signature Event, Mark Calcavecchia won by *eight* shots. Third place was 12 shots back and Calc bested Tiger Woods by a whopping 15 strokes. He shot a course-record-tying 60 in the second round and set a then-PGA Tour record with 28 birdies across 72 holes.
Key Stats to Winning at TPC Scottsdale
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Ball Striking/Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
• SG: Putting, especially inside 10 feet
• Par 5 Scoring, 500-550 yards -- all three are short, just over 550
Past Champions
2023 - Scottie Scheffler
2022 - Scottie Scheffler
2021 - Brooks Koepka
2020 - Webb Simpson
2019 - Rickie Fowler
2018 - Gary Woodland
2017 - Hideki Matsuyama
2016 - Hideki Matsuyama
2015 - Brooks Koepka
2014 - Kevin Stadler
Champion's Profile
Look at the past nine winners -- all top golfers, no long shots winning here. And that should continue this week. The winning score has been remarkably consistent through the years, between 16- and 19-under in the past seven editions. Scheffler shot 19-under last year. There had been playoffs in five of the previous six years, with Scheffler defeating Patrick Cantlay two years ago to kick-start his surge to No. 1 in the world with four wins in six starts.
Scheffler, who has struggled so mightily on the greens of late, ranked second in the field in SG: Putting, gaining almost 6 1/2 strokes on the field (but he ranked only 55th in SG: Approach.) Four years ago, Simpson nipped snake-bit Tony Finau. Imagine Finau finishing fifth in putting and not winning? That's what happened. Bad putters very often putt well here, or well enough. Woodland has won. Matsuyama has won twice. Stadler(!) has won.
As for Scheffler last year, he still was quite good on the greens, ranking 13th in the field. When you combine that with him ranking first in SG: Approach, third in greens in regulation and first in scrambling, he could've won by much more than the two strokes he did over Nick Taylor. That's normally the path to victory here: exceptional iron play with just enough putting to get over the hump. Oh, and by destroying the three short par-5s. The over/under on the winning score per golfodds.com was set at 266.5, which is 17.5 under par.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Scottie Scheffler - $11,600 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +450)
It's hard to remember the last time we picked Scheffler, whose putting woes have stood in the way of historically good approach play. If you don't want to include the Hero World Challenge, and we don't, it's been 11 months since he last won. But there's a reason Scheffler has won two in a row here: He's putted well. As mentioned in the Champion's Profile, Scheffler ranked second in the field in SG: Putting two years ago and 13th last year. His putting this season has been improving a bit -- he ranked 162nd on Tour last season, 117th in the early going of 2024. But he has proven he knows what he's doing on the TPC Scottsdale poa.
Justin Thomas - $10,000 (+1000)
Thomas tied for sixth last week at rain-shortened Pebble Beach. Frankly, between the horrible weather there all last week and the tournament going only three rounds, all with preferred lies, it's hard to put much weight on anything that happened there, good or bad. But Thomas did play well, continuing a trend that saw him with top-5s in his four previous worldwide starts going back to last year. He's also finished in the top-5 here in four of the past five years. Clearly, Thomas' game is back -- almost all the way back -- and he's again in the top-20 of the world rankings at No. 19.
Jordan Spieth - $9,500 (+1800)
With two of the expected $10,000 guys, Hovland and Schauffele, withdrawing, we are left with just five guys in our Tier 1. So we will go with just three picks instead of the usual four. Spieth has been a mainstay at this tournament and has put together four top-10s, including last year's tie for sixth. He has teed it up only twice so far in 2024. He finished solo third at the Sentry, then took a month off before tying for 39th at Pebble.
Tier 2 Values
Sungjae Im - $9,300 (+3000)
Im checks off a couple of important boxes for us -- he's ranked very high in our model and he's done quite well at this tournament. Im tied for sixth here last year, his second top-10 at TPC Scottsdale. But one box he doesn't come close to checking off is recent form. In fact, Im has slipped to 30th in the world rankings, a position he hasn't been in since the second half of 2021. But, it's not like he never plays well, and we think he will have one of his good weeks this week.
Sahith Theegala - $9,100 (+3500)
Theegala placed himself squarely on the golf map two years ago, when as a relative unknown he led for a good chunk of the tournament before tying for third. He's been a fan favorite wherever he's gone ever since. After finishing as runner-up at the season-opening Sentry, Theegala has had three so-so results. But that doesn't prevent him from landing in the top-10 in our model, buoyed by an exceptional short game and putting.
J.T. Poston - $8,900 (+3000)
Poston has been one of the hottest players in the early going, with top-10s at both Hawaii stops and just missing a third at the Amex (T11). He tied for 20th at Pebble. Poston rates in the upper half in the field in every key stat in our model except SG: Off-the-Tee. His strongest suit, of course, is his putting -- he's ranked 18th on Tour. Poston has a Phoenix best of T11 three years ago, though he did miss the cut last year.
Byeong Hun An - $8,800 (+2500)
An has been playing very well so far in 2024, but going off at 25-1, the No. 6 guy at the DK Sportsbook, seems aggressive, even with the WDs of Hovland and Schauffele. But all we are concerned with here is $8,800, which seems right. An has not played here in three years, but he has a pair of top-10s and two other top-25s on his Phoenix ledger. And this year he arrives with a vastly improved putter in the early going -- he's ranked 25th on Tour.
Adam Scott - $8,300 (+5000)
Scott played well at the end of last year on the PGA Tour and in Australia, then tied for seventh in Dubai to kick off his 2024 schedule. And, for what it's worth, he tied for 20th last week at Pebble Beach. Still, Scott surprisingly came up very high in our model based on exceptional recent ball striking, driving and putting.
Tier 3 Values
Brian Harman - $7,800 (+5500)
Pure and simple, this is a value play. The No. 10 golfer in the world is priced under $8,000. Harman's history here isn't great, but it's also far from terrible. He's made eight straight cuts, though with only two top-25s. One of them was T14 two years ago. He also has a couple of good results in 2024, with a top-10 and a top-20 in Hawaii.
Akshay Bhatia - $7,800 (+6000)
Bhatia ranked 183rd on Tour in SG: Putting last year. This year? 16th? The just-turned 22-year-old switched to a longer putter to start the season and you don't have to be a math whiz to know it's working. His ball striking has always been good. Bhatia has finished in the top-15 in three of his four starts in 2024, including last time out at the Farmers. This will be his Phoenix debut.
Shane Lowry - $7,700 (+5500)
Lowry just fell out of the top 50 in the world rankings for the first time since he won the 2019 Open Championship. That sounds bad. And we all know the OWGR can do odd things. But he's been decent of late, with a tie for 25th at Torrey Pines. He ended 2023 with a top-5 and two top-20s on the DP World Tour. Lowry lands in the top-10 in our model, good in every key stat. And does anybody love a good party more than Lowry? He's come to the right golf tournament.
Erik van Rooyen - $7,100 (+8000)
The South African has quietly turned in three top-25s in four starts in 2024. Two of them came in Signature Events, albeit in smaller fields. van Rooyen qualified by winning in Mexico during the fall season, which followed four other top-25s in five starts. He ranks second in this field in ball striking over his past 24 rounds and fourth in SG: Off-the-Tee. That's pretty dang solid.
Long-Shot Values
Sam Ryder - $6,900 (+18000)
Ryder has yet to crack the top-100 OWGR in his career, but a good week at one of his better Tour stops could do the trick. He is ranked 108th and his best has been 102nd. Ryder's hallmark has always been approach play, and he's ranked fourth in this field over his past 24 rounds. Plus 18th in ball striking. That may explain his five made cuts here in five starts, with top-25s the past two years.
Nick Hardy - $6,800 (+20000)
Hardy has played in both Signature Events so far this season. He hasn't had a high finish, but he's been in them. He's ranked top-25 in this field over his past 24 rounds in both SG: Approach and ball striking. Hardy has played Phoenix just once, tying for 42nd three years ago. He tied for 21st a few weeks back at the Amex.
Scott Stallings - $6,700 (+20000)
Stallings doesn't play consistently well at many tournaments, but this is one of them. He's had top-25s the past two years and in three of his past five visits. He's also coming off a top-25 at the Farmers. Stallings is ranked top-50 on Tour in both SG: Approach and Putting.
Zach Johnson - $6,300 (+50000)
Johnson comes here every year and makes the cut almost every year (eight of the past nine). He hasn't had a top-25 here since 2017, but what do you want for $6,300? Johnson missed the cut in his 2024 opener at the Sony, then rebounded for a top-25 at the Amex. Johnson doesn't rank inside the cut line in our model, but with more than half the field making the cut, he's got a decent chance to reach the weekend.
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