This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course: TPC Craig Ranch (7,569 yards, par 71)
Purse: $9,900,000
Winner: $1,782,000 and 500 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
The third of four events in the state of Texas on the PGA Tour takes us to just North of Dallas to McKinney and TPC Craig Ranch. This will be the fifth consecutive year that Craig Ranch will get to host this event, and the second since CJ Group replaced AT&T as the title sponsor. The event is of course named after one of golf's legends in Byron Nelson who hailed from the state of Texas. Nelson won 52 times on the PGA Tour, including five major championships. He is generally most well known for his PGA Tour record 11 straight tournament wins and 18 total in the year of 1945 alone.
This tournament has changed venues multiple times over its long history that dates back to 1944, but since moving to TPC Craig Ranch it has really become an all-out sprint. The winning score in the last four years has fallen between 23 and 26-under-par. While it's one of the longest courses on Tour, because of the width of the fairways and the softness of the greens, good scores are plentiful.
It's a good thing World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is in the field, because if he wasn't there would be just one player -- Sungjae Im at No. 20 -- ranked inside the top 35 of the OWGR. Scheffler is still looking for that first win of 2025 and this would be a great spot for him to breakthrough in his home state against a weak field. Jordan Spieth will be the other player the fans are behind this week. He's had success in his hometown event over the years, including in 2010 as a 16-year-old amateur when he made the cut and finished T16. Taylor Pendrith will come into this event as the defending champion looking to get back on track this season with a strong showing.
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson is also the last event in which players can qualify for the Truist Championship next week via the Aon Next 10 or Aon Swing 5. The Next 10 seems pretty settled at this point, but the Swing 5 could still feature some drama. Keith Mitchell, who withdrew from the Byron Nelson with an undisclosed issue, holds the final spot over Frankie Capan III and Jake Knapp, who teamed up to finish third last week at the Zurich Classic and will both be in the field at Craig Ranch. Nicolai and Rasmus Hojgaard finished second at the Zurich Classic and are just above Mitchell in the Swing 5 trying to lock up a spot in the sixth of eight signature events this season.
It's spring time in Texas so we know what we're dealing with in terms of weather. We could see a thunderstorm pop up at any point throughout the tournament and cause a delay. The course will play soft as it always does because of the daily potential for rain this time of year. Really the lone defense of this course is the wind, but it doesn't appear much different that we've seen the last few years in McKinney where tournament record scores have been shot.
Recent Champions
2024 - Taylor Pendrith (-23)
2023 - Jason Day (-23)
2022 - K.H. Lee (-26)
2021 - K.H. Lee (-25)
2020 - No Tournament
2019 - Sung Kang (-23)
2018 - Aaron Wise (-23)
2017 - Billy Horschel (-12)
2016 - Sergio Garcia (-15)
2015 - Steven Bowditch (-18)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach/GIR Percentage
- SG: Putting/Putts per GIR
- SG: Off-the-Tee/Driving Distance
- Birdie Average/Proximity 200+ Yards
Champion's Profile
In a shootout like we expect to see again at TPC Craig Ranch this week, it comes down to the simple formula of hitting greens and sinking putts. Players will want to maximize their birdie opportunities, and iron play will be an easy separator. There will be a lot of long approach shots on this course and players able to strike their mid-to-long irons the best will be able to give themselves more quality looks on holes you wouldn't normally think to make birdie on. There are three par-5s and two potentially drivable par-4s that players will be able to get after, but being able to set yourself up with good looks on the other 13 holes will likely be the key.
This is a course where players will use driver at just about every opportunity. There's not a whole lot of trouble out there to worry about, so the big hitters will feel free to let it fly as Pendrith did a year ago. The bentgrass greens are also a place players can be aggressive. They will be running a manageable 11.5 on the Stimpmeter, meaning players will not be too worried about putts rolling out much if they get by the hole. Given the high GIR percentage by the field this week, this is not a tournament where you will be able to survive a cold putter.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Scottie Scheffler ($14,000)
There's a reason why Scheffler is $2,100 more than anyone else in this field. I usually like to avoid this type of thing, but when you look at the next few names on the list and how their games fit Craig Ranch, it just might be worth it to pay up. Scheffler ranks sixth in SG: Off-the-Tee, fourth in SG: Approach, eighth in GIR percentage and second in proximity this season. Combine that with the fact he's gained on the greens in 9 of 10 starts, and we've covered all our bases for this test. Scheffler has finished T15 and T5 in his last two tries here.
Taylor Pendrith ($11,500)
It didn't take Pendrith long to adjust to TPC Craig Ranch last year, winning by one stroke in his first start. The Canadian really rode that momentum from the win the rest of the season with a bunch of top-10 and top-25 results. The last few months it's been a struggle other than a T5 in Houston. The good news is that Memorial Park has a lot of similarities as Craig Ranch. Pendrith is second in SG: Off-the-Tee and fifth in GIR percentage this season. The short game has been his biggest issue, but it usually doesn't factor in much at this venue.
Stephan Jaeger ($10,900)
Jaeger is a super aggressive player and that should play out well at this birdie barrage. He is going to bomb it all over the yard here and there's enough room to get away with it. Jaeger is also hitting his irons well right now having gained over 1.2 strokes on approach per round over his last 20 rounds. He is also inside the top-35 this season in SG: Putting and putts per GIR. Jaeger has made eight of his last nine cuts and has finished top-20 at Craig Ranch the last two years.
The Middle Tier
Jake Knapp ($10,300)
After a wildly inconsistent 2024 season, Knapp has found much more of a rhythm this year. He's coming off his best finish of the year at the Zurich Classic, which was also his sixth top-30 of the campaign. Knapp was solo eighth a year ago at Craig Ranch and has all the pieces we're looking for. He's one of the longest drivers on the PGA Tour, he's top-25 in proximity outside of 200 yards and he's 21st in SG: Putting.
Ryan Gerard ($10,200)
Gerard has had a strong 2025 in his return to the PGA Tour. He's already logged six top-30 finishes this season, including a runner-up at the Valero Texas Open and a solo ninth at the Houston Open. He has a great shot at making it 3-for-3 in terms of top-10s in the state of Texas this week. The 25-year-old ranks top-15 on Tour in SG: Total and scoring average. Both the iron play and putting have been quite impressive, which is a good recipe for making a lot of birdies and eagles.
Alejandro Tosti ($9,300)
Throw out a missed cut in the team event and Tosti is coming in off finishes of T5-T12-T2 in his last three individual events. The Argentinean ranks fifth this season in driving distance and leads the PGA Tour in proximity from 175-200 yards, where a lot of his approaches will be coming from to some of these long par-4s. Tosti has gained strokes on approach in his last five starts and always seems to thrive at these driver-heavy courses like TPC Craig Ranch.
The Long Shots
Sami Valimaki ($8,800)
The 26-year-old very well might be the best value in the field. He's coming off finishes of 4th-T12-T18 in his last three individual starts and has made the cut in his last seven such events. Valimaki is a great fit for a shootout, as he ranks eighth this season in SG: Approach and 14th in SG: Putting. His proximity ranks seem to go up the further away you get form the hole, which will be perfect on a course with a lot of long approach shots.
Henrik Norlander ($8,700)
Norlander has been on a tear of late with four top-20 finishes in his last five starts. He continues to excel with the irons ranking third in SG: Approach this season and 22nd in proximity from 175-200 yards, which is where a lot of his approaches will come from at Craig Ranch. The Swede doesn't have the big-time power, but he's very accurate and has really improved his putting over the last couple months, which has led to these strong results.
Davis Riley ($8,300)
After a pretty abysmal start to the year, Riley has really turned things around the last couple months. He has now made seven straight cuts with a pair of top-10s and a T21 at The Masters during that stretch. Riley has the ideal length to attack Craig Ranch and has gained strokes on approach in five of his last seven. His putting has been strong all season at 60th in strokes gained and 22nd in putts per GIR. Riley finished top-10 here back in 2022.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
The ideal player this week is one who is on form with both their approach play and putting, with some extra pop in the bat as well. Most of the players listed above fall into that category. Due to the strength of the $8K range this week, rostering Scheffler is quite doable if you want to go that route. This is going to be one of the harder cuts to make this season. In the four years at TPC Craig Ranch it has taken -4, -5 and -6 twice to make the weekend. You can strike the ball well and pretty easily not make the cut if the putter is just a little off. Anyone who has been struggling with the putter of late is probably best to avoid this week.
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