This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
The 124th U.S. Open
Course: Pinehurst Resort Course No. 2 (7,550 yards, par 70)
Purse: $20,000,000
Winner: $3,900,000 and 750 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
There's a lot of excitement for the 124th edition of the U.S. Open this week. Much of that stems from the venue. Pinehurst No. 2 has an extensive history in championship golf and is annually ranked amongst the top courses in the United States. The North Carolina gem has long been host to the North & South Men's and Women's amateur. It has also hosted three previous U.S. Amateurs (1962, 2008, 2019) and the 1989 U.S. Women's Amateur. Pinehurst held the 1951 Ryder Cup and both the 1991 and 1997 TOUR Championships. Now an anchor site of the U.S. Open, this will be the fourth time it has hosted America's national open. Payne Stewart won the 1999 edition in dramatic fashion over Phil Mickelson, Michael Campbell picked up his lone PGA Tour win at the 2005 U.S. Open besting Tiger Woods by two shots and Martin Kaymer won by eight strokes in 2014 with a dominating putting week. Pinehurst would also host the U.S. Women's Open the next week in 2014 where Michelle Wie would finally break through as a major champion. The U.S. Women's Open was played a couple weeks ago at Lancaster, but they will return to Pinehurst in 2029 along with the men.
After the 2005 U.S. Open, Pinehurst underwent a restoration by Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw. Gone was the lush bermuda rough and in its place was sand and native areas. The scruffier look brought the playability of the course back to what it was in the original Donald Ross design. Pinehurst is now firm and fast all year long and the classic Sandhill look allows ball to chase well away from the fairways or greens. You might find a nice lie in the sand, or you might be stuck in one of the local plants that have grown up even more since the last U.S. Open a decade ago. This Coore and Crenshaw work is at the pinnacle of restorations and truly tests every part of a players game, something that can't be said of some other recent U.S. Open venues. The firmness and lack of typical lush U.S. Open rough gives every player in the field a chance if they are able to execute the correct shots.
We've reached Scottie Scheffler or the field conversations, which I don't think anyone would even consider was possibly in the post-Tiger (mostly) era. He comes into the U.S. Open off his fifth victory of the year at the Memorial Tournament. Not only was it his fifth win, but all of them have come in the toughest fields of the year with three Signature Event wins, THE PLAYERS Championship and the Masters. Not that it really matters, but I don't think you could find a better fit for his game than Pinehurst. That being said, there's still 155 other players that will be giving it everything to try and challenge the runaway No. 1. At the top of that list is PGA Championship winner Xander Schauffele who checks every box. Rory McIlroy is still looking to end that long major drought but has racked up three wins in 2024. Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa were right there in the first two majors of the season and will be hoping to add a second and third major win, respectively. Viktor Hovland and Ludvig Aberg have been playing great golf of late and are serious challengers for their first major victories. Given the unpredictability of some of the bounces around Pinehurst, however, don't be surprised to see a few long shots on the first page of the leaderboard as well.
It's going to be a hot week at Pinehurst. Temperatures are expected to reach 90 in each of the four rounds. Crossing our fingers here, but there is also a very limited threat of rain this week. We could see an extremely baked out course that will make judging the bounce and rollout a near impossible task. In three previous U.S. Open's at Pinehurst just Kaymer (-9) has shot better than one-under-par over 72 holes. Even with very limited winds expected and a course that will play quite short, it is going to be an extremely difficult test this week for the players. Safe to say McIlroy and Brooks Koepka's U.S. Open scoring record of 16-under-par will not be touched.
Recent Champions
2023 - Wyndham Clark -10 (Los Angeles Country Club)
2022 - Matt Fitzpatrick -6 (The Country Club)
2021 - Jon Rahm -6 (Torrey Pines)
2020 - Bryson DeChambeau -6 (Winged Foot)
2019 - Gary Woodland -13 (Pebble Beach)
2018 - Brooks Koepka +1 (Shinnecock Hills)
2017 - Brooks Koepka -16 (Erin Hills)
2016 - Dustin Johnson -4 (Oakmont)
2015 - Jordan Spieth -5 (Chambers Bay)
2014 - Martin Kaymer -9 (Pinehurst)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach/GIR Percentage
- SG: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
- SG: Off-the-Tee/Driving Accuracy
- Bogey Avoidance
Champion's Profile
If ever there was a week to aim at the center of the green, this would be it. There are a few rolling greens with different shelves, but the majority are relatively flat in the center with pretty severe runoffs in all directions. Given the expected firmness, there will be a lot of good shots hit that release off the putting surface and leave an incredibly difficult up-and-down. Unlike Muirfield Village last week, players have an immense amount of options from off the greens. You could put 10 different players in the same spot around the green and they might try to hit 10 different types of shots. It truly allows the best short game players to be an artist and will allow the best in that area of the game to separate. You can bet that the Pinehurst setup team has taken precautions to ensure putting from off the greens is a little more difficult that Kaymer made it look in 2014.
Pinehurst certainly qualifies as a positional golf course. It's all about getting the proper angles off the tee to be able to setup the approach to firm greens. Much like Augusta National, knowing where the misses are to each pin position will also be critical. Due to the firmness and contours of the fairways, we will see a lot of different clubs used off tees. The fairways are wide, but missing them could come with a huge penalty if the ball bounces into one of the native plants. Accuracy over distance all day this week, which honestly is pretty refreshing considering what was being asked of players at some other recent U.S. Open venues.
If you're keeping track at home, we are looking for players who keep the ball in the fairway, are dialed in with their distances on approach and have an elite short game. If you hit a good approach close to the hole, you will be rewarded with a pretty straightforward putt. The further away from the hole you get the more slopes and ridges a player will have to deal with. While big numbers can certainly happen at Pinehurst, it is much more of a death by a thousand cuts course. It's so easy to make a bogey on every hole out there and thus bogey avoidance will prove to be a pretty important stat to look at heading into this tournament.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Scottie Scheffler ($13,500)
There's not really a lot to say here that everyone doesn't already know. Scheffler is tremendous off the tee, approaching the greens and around the greens. On top of that he has gained strokes on the greens in his last eight starts, during which time he has won five times and added a pair of runner-up finishes and a T8 after the debacle at the PGA Championship. Pinehurst rewards everything he is brilliant at and a 2014 style runaway win would not shock me at all.
Xander Schauffele ($12,000)
The man that has the best chance to deny Scheffler is Schauffele. He is second to Scheffler in bogey avoidance and SG: Tee-to-Green. Schauffele is also putting the ball so well right now and is coming off a week at the Memorial in which he led the field in SG: Putting. No player has been more consistent at the U.S. Open of late as his worst finish in the last seven national opens was a T14. That stretch includes a trio of top-five finishes as well.
Collin Morikawa ($11,300)
If Morikawa keeps putting himself in position at the biggest events, eventually he will break down the door. He was in the final pairing on Sunday at the Masters (T3), the PGA Championship (T4) and the Memorial (2nd). Morikawa is not only dominating on approach again, but he is also first in driving accuracy, 10th in SG: Around-the-Green and seventh in putts per GIR. The two-time major winner went T4-T5-T14 the last three years at the U.S. Open.
The Middle Tier
Hideki Matsuyama ($10,400)
This doesn't come without some degree of risk, but the upside is really high here especially at this price. Matsuyama is third in SG: Tee-to-Green this season and leads the PGA Tour in SG: Around-the-Green. That tidy short game will come in handy at Pinehurst and the way he hits his irons will leave him with a lot of straightforward putts. Matsuyama has not missed a cut in 2024 to go along with six top-15 finishes. He has missed just one cut in his U.S. Open career to go along with a trio of top-10s and eight top-26 finishes in 11 starts.
Russell Henley ($9,200)
Henley is still No. 8 on Data Golf due in large part to his consistent ability to put the ball in the fairway, hit his irons close and scramble at a high clip when needed. That's a big reason why he has missed just two cuts in his last 24 starts with seven top-10s and 16 top-25s during that stretch. It's no surprise that Henley plays well in U.S. Open's with four top-30s in his last five starts. The Georgia product loves bermudagrass and is putting as well as he has in a long time.
Sungjae Im ($9,100)
Im comes into the week in excellent form with top-12 finishes in five of his last six starts. None of the numbers in any area blow you away, but he has always been so consistent through the bag. Drives it in the fairway, great touch around the greens and makes a lot of putts. Im always seems to do well on bermudagrass as well. His biggest weakness this year has been with the irons, but Im is turning that around gaining strokes on approach in four of his last five tournaments.
The Long Shots
Sepp Straka ($8,700)
This is an absurd price for a guy who has three top-five's and seven top-20s in his last nine starts, the majority of those being in big events against incredible fields. Over much of that stretch he has put himself in the conversation for the second-best iron player on Tour. Combine that with his extreme accuracy off the tee and he will be in a lot of good positions on this golf course. Straka finished T2 at the Open Championship last year after his win at the John Deere Classic.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,200)
The only concern with Bezuidenhout is that he doesn't hit it that far, but this week distance shouldn't be a big factor. His short game and putting this season has been terrific ranking 19th in scrambling, eighth in SG: Putting and second in putts per GIR. Bezuidenhout is also 30th in SG: Approach and ninth in proximity. The South African has racked up four top-20s in his last five starts, including a solo fourth at a very tough Muirfield Village last week.
Mark Hubbard ($7,800)
I don't think the ceiling is that high here, but the floor certainly is. Hubbard has made a PGA Tour leading 16 straight cuts. His iron play has always been his calling card, but he has really put it all together this season gaining strokes across the board. Hubbard isn't long by any means, but that won't hurt him this week. In recent weeks his putter has really picked up, gaining strokes in each of his last four starts.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
I haven't touched on this yet, but something to remember is that this is the hardest cut to make in major championship golf. Only the top-60 and ties will make the weekend. Compare that to the PGA and Open Championships, which are both top 70 and ties, and then the Masters which is top 50, but they only have around 90 players every year. Even with a number of amateurs and less qualified players that make this field than say the PGA last month, getting a perfect 6-for-6 with your lineups will be an impressive feat, especially considering all the potential for carnage around Pinehurst with the bounces.
The meat of the salary board is in the low $9K to high $8K range. There are so many players in there that I would love to have on my roster this week. Some more that I would consider that I didn't name above are Si Woo Kim ($9,000), Tom Hoge ($8,900), Aaron Rai ($8,700), Adam Hadwin ($8,600) and Akshay Bhatia ($8,400). The depth in that ranges makes it very easy to take one of those three options in the $12K and up range along with another $11K to high $10K option. I don't anticipate seeing a ton of birdies this week, so most of the DFS scoring will be related to placement, which I think sometimes makes it a little easier to peg.
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