This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
The Honda Classic
Course: PGA National Champion Course (7,125 yards, par 70)
Purse: $8,000,000
Winner: $1,440,000 and 500 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
It was only a handful of years ago that The Honda Classic was one of the rising events on the PGA Tour schedule. Its close proximity to where a number of top golfers call home made it very appealing for players to be able to sleep in their own beds at night and make the short drive to the course in the morning. With The Honda Classic now sandwiched between two Invitational events and The PLAYERS Championship a week later, the field in 2022 has taken a bit of a hit. After every single player in the top 10 of the OWGR teed it up last week at Riviera, no one in that group will tee it up at PGA National. However, this week's field will include wire-to-wire Genesis Invitational Champion Joaquin Niemann and four-time major champion Brooks Koepka. 2020 Honda Classic winner Sungjae Im, Daniel Berger, Louis Oosthuizen, Tommy Fleetwood, Matthew Wolff, and Rickie Fowler round out some of the other notables.
This will be the 16th time that PGA National has hosted The Honda Classic. It has turned into one of the most difficult courses on the PGA Tour and made (in)famous by the "Bear Trap" which is a three-hole closing stretch which includes the par-3 15th, par-4 16th, and par-3 17th holes. All three holes have huge danger of water and we routinely see good rounds ruined there. If you can play those holes in even-par or better for the week, you likely will be amongst the players contending on Sunday. In 15 years hosting this event, Camilo Villegas' 13-under-par winning score in 2010 is the lowest 72-hole score at PGA National. Only four times has the winner even broke double-digits under-par. Players will need to be mentally prepared to grind for every shot this week.
The weather forecast for Palm Beach Gardens, Florida calls for 80 degrees and sunshine through the entire tournament week. That should certainly get these fairways to chase out and make it harder for players to stop balls close to the hole locations. Wind is really what makes PGA National such a challenge year in and year out, however. We should see sustained winds between 10-15 miles per hour throughout most of the event. Don't be surprised if we see gusts in the 20-25 mph range, though.
Recent Champions
2021 – Matt Jones (-12)
2020 – Sungjae Im (-6)
2019 – Keith Mitchell (-9)
2018 – Justin Thomas (-8)
2017 – Rickie Fowler (-12)
2016 – Adam Scott (-9)
2015 – Padraig Harrington (-6)
2014 – Russell Henley (-8)
2013 – Michael Thompson (-9)
2012 – Rory McIlroy (-12)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Tee-to-Green
- GIR Percentage
- Scrambling
- Par-4 Scoring Average
Champion's Profile
PGA National does not require length to succeed at all. Instead it asks players to strike it solidly and be in control of your golf ball. There is trouble lurking on every hole out there. One bad swing can lead to a big number really fast. The last two winners here in Matt Jones and Sungjae Im both led the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. Jones also paced the field in his five-shot romping last year in par-4 scoring average. That is typically a pretty key stat as well on a course like PGA National with 12 par-4's. To make the test even tougher this year, the rough has been allowed to grow to three inches. That should place more emphasis on hitting fairways. Similar to last week at Riviera, PGA National is routinely among the hardest greens to hit in regulation despite pretty sizable putting surfaces. This will place added emphasis on short game. There will also be an adjustment for the players on the greens where they will now face bermudagrass instead of primarily poa annua on the west coast. Conversion rates particularly from close range should be higher on these bermudagrass putting surfaces that are slated to run 12 on the Stimpmeter.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Sungjae Im ($12,000)
Im followed up his win in 2020 here with a solid T8 last year. The 23-year-old loves playing in Florida and has a really strong 69.25 scoring average around PGA National. Im has six top-20 finishes in nine starts this season. He ranks top-12 on Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee, SG: Around-the-Green, SG: Tee-to-Green, SG: Total, GIR percentage, scrambling, and scoring average.
Daniel Berger ($11,800)
Berger is a near perfect fit for PGA National. He ranks seventh in SG: Approach, 10th in SG: Tee-to-Green, second in driving accuracy, and first in scrambling this season. It's no surprise that he owns a pair of top-4 finishes at The Honda Classic. Berger has a T5 and T20 in three starts in 2022.
Tommy Fleetwood ($11,400)
Fleetwood has teed it up twice at The Honda Classic before, notching a solo fourth in 2018 and a solo third in 2020. Since 2018, he leads all players who have played at least eight rounds at PGA National in scoring average and SG: Total per round. Fleetwood is coming off top-12 finishes in each of his last two starts worldwide.
Keith Mitchell ($10,400)
The 2019 Honda Classic winner is playing some of the best golf of his career, notching a top-12 finish in four of his last five starts. He ranks third in SG: Off-the-Tee, 15th in SG: Tee-to-Green, third in total driving, and 34th in GIR percentage. Mitchell is also 22nd in birdie average 34th in scrambling.
Longer Shots with Value
Denny McCarthy ($9,400)
McCarthy is enjoying the best start to a season in his career, having already picked up six top-20 results in 11 starts. The 28-year-old is one of the best short game players on the PGA Tour. This season he ranks 20th in SG: Around-the-Green, 16th in SG: Putting, and third in scrambling. McCarthy is also 11th in par-4 scoring average and posted a T3 last year at PGA National.
K.H. Lee ($9,200)
Lee has now made eight cuts in a row after scoring a T26 finish at Riviera, where he had a strong putting and driving week. Lee ranks 28th in total driving, 18th in scrambling, and 39th in par-4 scoring for the season. The 30-year-old scored a T7 finish at PGA National back in 2019.
Michael Thompson ($9,100)
Thompson broke through for his first PGA Tour win back in 2013 at The Honda Classic. His career is back on the rise after some struggles and the veteran has notched top-25s in three of his last four starts at PGA National. Thompson has three top-15 finishes this season in total behind a great short game.
Sam Ryder ($8,700)
Ryder is coming off back-to-back top-26 finishes in which his short game really shined. The 32-year-old scored a T8 finish last season at The Honda Classic that included a second-round, seven-under 63. Ryder is a Florida native who is very comfortable on bermudagrass.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
The depth of his field is certainly nowhere near what we see at the Invitational field last week at Riviera. It's definitely a very top-heavy salary board. Billy Horschel, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, and Jhonattan Vegas are some other five-figure players that have pretty solid value as well. I'd also be careful about Joaquin Niemann, who jumped up to $11,900 after his wire-to-wire win at Riviera but may be a bit gassed. As mentioned in the profile, players who hit a lot of fairways and greens are preferred, but you can't have a weak short game at PGA National. This tournament plays pretty similar each year. You are going to get firm greens and tricky rough with a lot of wind. That being said one could argue course history means more than recent form this week, especially considering the grass changes from the West Coast to Florida.
