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RBC Heritage
After a stressful week at the first major of the year, a strong contingent of players will make their way from Augusta to Hilton Head Island, South Carolina, where the vibe will be much more relaxed.
Harbour Town Golf Links is one of the most unique courses on the PGA Tour, and this year's edition will host one of the best fields in tournament history. Stewart Cink will be looking to defend his title and win this event for a fourth time. Meanwhile, contenders at the Masters last week like Cameron Smith, Sungjae Im, Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, and Dustin Johnson will looking to slip on the tartan jacket awarded to the winner Sunday afternoon.
Profiling the Winner
Harbour Town is far different than many of the courses that litter the PGA Tour schedule, where distance is a prerequisite for success. The fairways here are extremely narrow and the greens are among the smallest on the calendar. It's one of the ultimate tests of ball striking, both in terms of accuracy off the tee and into the greens. If you take one scroll through the list of champions here, "long" is not the first adjective you would use to describe any of them. Because of that, this event really opens the door for anyone who can control the golf ball. Last year, Cink led the field in SG: Tee-to-Green and greens in regulation while also ranking top-5 in SG: Approach, SG: Around-the-Green and scrambling. That is really the formula for success at Harbour Town. The size of the greens should mitigate some of the players who struggle with the putter and also provide the opportunity for those who are strong in the short game to gain more strokes in that area.
Another factor that can't be overlooked is mental fatigue. We've rarely seen a player contend deep into the weekend at the Masters then come to Hilton Head the very next week and jump right back into contention.
After a bit of a chilly and windy week at the Masters, the conditions will be warmer this week with slightly less gusty winds. The big challenge will be that the wind is projected to come out of three different directions over the first three rounds. A passing thunderstorm or two can't be ruled out this time of the year, and those would in turn soften the golf course a bit.
Category Picks
Premium Picks
Players Included: Sungjae Im, Dustin Johnson, Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay, Webb Simpson, Cameron Smith, Justin Thomas
Guru Verdict: This category is absolutely stacked with talent, and all seven players have had varying amounts of success at Harbour Town. I'm going to lean toward Morikawa because I think he is the most accurate ball striker of the bunch. He ranks top-20 on Tour this season in SG: Off-the-Tee, SG: Approach, driving accuracy, total driving, GIR percentage and proximity to the hole. The two-time major champion is also a significantly better putter than he was at this point last season, when he tossed up a T7 at Harbour Town.
World Elite
Players Included: Jordan Spieth, Daniel Berger, Corey Conners, Tom Hoge, Jason Kokrak, Joaquin Niemann
Guru Verdict: All things being equal, Conners very well might be the pick here due to his extremely accurate ball striking. However, I think fatigue has to start setting in for him after playing seven matches in five days in Austin and then dealing with windy conditions in San Antonio and at the Masters. I feel much more confident with Berger, who has played a lot less golf as of late and has a third-place result and a T13 the last two years at Harbour Town. Berger ranks 22nd in SG: Approach, 10th in SG: Around-the-Green, eighth in SG: Tee-to-Green, 15th in driving accuracy, eighth in scrambling and first in sand-save percentage this season.
Front-Runners
Players Included: Adam Hadwin, Alex Noren, Dylan Frittelli, Russell Henley, Billy Horschel, Luke List, Kevin Na
Guru Verdict: If you look at his course history at Harbour Town, there isn't a lot to be encouraged about, but I don't think Hadwin has ever come into this event playing better than he is right now. The Canadian is coming off three straight top-10 finishes and should have a chip on his shoulder after having to the Masters from his couch. Hadwin ranks top-30 on Tour in SG: Approach, SG: Around-the-Green, SG: Tee-to-Green, driving accuracy, GIR percentage, proximity to the hole and scrambling. Henley is also a solid pick, as he leads the way in SG: Approach and notched a top-10 at Harbour Town last year.
UK & Ireland
Players Included: Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton, Danny Willett, Luke Donald, Ian Poulter, Shane Lowry
Guru Verdict: There's been a bit of a running joke in recent years that Fitzpatrick uses Augusta National to get ready for Harbour Town because he loves this week's course so much. And why shouldn't he? The Englishman's lack of distance is mitigated and it allows his accuracy and short game to shine through. Fitzpatrick is 13th in SG: Approach, 15th in SG: Around-the-Green and fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green. He finished outside the top 20 just once in his last nine starts and posted three top-15 finishes in his last four trips to Hilton Head. Donald has never won here but does own seven top-3 finishes and Poulter is 11-for-11 here with five top-20 results. Neither player has really be in form for some time, though.
International Stars
Players Included: Branden Grace, Sebastian Munoz, Emiliano Grillo, Carlos Ortiz, Garrick Higgo, Erik van Rooyen, Anirban Lahiri
Guru Verdict: This is a tricky category because a number of these players have missed quite a few cuts in recent weeks. I feel most confident in van Rooyen, who easily had the best form over the last nine months. The South African posted top-25 finishes in 10 of his last 18 starts worldwide, including his first career PGA Tour win at the Barracuda Championship. Van Rooyen is top-25 on Tour in both SG: Approach and proximity to the hole and owns a top-25 finish in his lone start at Harbour Town.
US Contenders
Players Included: Rickie Fowler, Jim Furyk, Charles Howell III, Matt Kuchar, Stewart Cink, Brian Harman, Joel Dahmen
Guru Verdict: Kuchar has to be the guy in this group. He finished T16-T2 in his last two starts and has made 17 straight cuts at the RBC Heritage, including a win and 11 top-25 finishes. Kuchar's short game has been outstanding this season, as he ranks third in SG: Around-the-Green, 12th in SG: Putting, first in scrambling and first in putts per round. Furyk and Cink have tremendous records at Harbour Town as well, but neither has been competitive on the PGA Tour this season.
Outside Chances
Players Included: Lucas Glover, Henrik Stenson, Sepp Straka, Si Woo Kim, Mackenzie Hughes, Cameron Young, J.J. Spaun
Guru Verdict: Spaun sticks out more than any other player in this group. He is coming off his first PGA Tour win at the Valero Texas Open and his first appearance at the Masters, where he scored a solid top-25. Spaun is gaining strokes in every category this season and posted a sixth-place finish at Harbour Town back in 2017. Among this group, Glover has probably been the most accurate ball striker this season, but he has only one top-10 finish in 19 career starts at the RBC Heritage.
Wild Cards
Players Included: Doug Ghim, Tyler Duncan, Lanto Griffin, Harry Higgs, Matthew NeSmith, Brandt Snedeker, Sahith Theegala
Guru Verdict: Snedeker has more tournament experience at Harbour Town than the rest of the players in this category combined, but he has made just 5-of-14 cuts this season. Instead, I'm going to roll with a South Carolina native in NeSmith. The 28-year-old has been an extremely accurate ball striker in the three years he has played on the PGA Tour full-time. That will be the name of the game at Harbour Town, where NeSmith has made the cut in both attempts. He is coming off a T3 at the Valspar Championship, which is played at a venue similar to this week's.
The Selections
Premium Picks: Collin Morikawa
World Elite: Daniel Berger
Front-Runners: Adam Hadwin
UK & Ireland: Matt Fitzpatrick
International Stars: Erik van Rooyen
US Contenders: Matt Kuchar
Outside Chances: J.J. Spaun
Wild Cards: Matthew NeSmith
