PickGuru Golf: the Memorial

PickGuru Golf: the Memorial

This article is part of our PickGuru Golf series.

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the Memorial Tournament

The Memorial Tournament is one of the marquee events on the PGA Tour schedule. The tournament was founded by in 1976 by none other than 18-time major champion Jack Nicklaus. His vision of Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio has taken shape over the years and transformed into one of the best and most well-manicured courses players see. This is one of five events on the PGA Tour schedule given invitational status, meaning the field will be limited to 120 players, with the top 65 and ties making the 36-hole cut and the winner getting a three-year exemption on the PGA Tour.

Profiling the Winner

Muirfield Village has been constantly tinkered with over the years, but it underwent a significant renovation effort after the two events held here in 2020 and into the 2021 Memorial Tournament. The 2022 event will now tip at 7,533 yards and is a stock par-72. Muirfield Village greens are typically among the fastest on the calendar, and they are going to need that typical Memorial zip, as the weather forecast calls for early-week precipitation and very minimal winds throughout the four tournament rounds.

Muirfield Village is one of the great second shot golf courses around. Nicklaus tracks give golfers plenty of room off the tees, but having the correct angle will make life a lot easier. The greens feature a lot of undulation and are multi-tiered. It is very exacting on irons and wedges to control distances and leave makeable putts. It's close to impossible to win at a course like Muirfield Village if you aren't top-10 for the week in SG: Approach or greens in regulation.

The rough over much of the last decade at Muirfield Village has been extremely challenging. It is thick and makes being able to stop the ball on the incredibly fast greens very difficult. That same challenge is felt around the greens as well. There aren't a lot of closely mown areas that come into play at Muirfield Village, which keeps balls from getting too far away from the putting surfaces. Thick rough around the greens also limits the number of shots available, which has a tendency to really decrease the gap between the best and worst chippers.

Category Picks

European Stars

Players Included: Matt Fitzpatrick, Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Shane Lowry, Jon Rahm

Guru Verdict: Rahm has a score to settle this week. Everyone knows he had a near-certain win taken away from him at Muirfield Village last year, and the Spaniard would have become the first player since Tiger Woods to win the Memorial in consecutive years. Despite many considering this an off year for Rahm, he still leads the PGA Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee and greens in regulation percentage. Rahm is also second in SG: Tee-to-Green, and all the rough around the greens and speedy putting surfaces should mitigate some of his short game struggles.

US Elite

Players Included: Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Jordan Spieth, Will Zalatoris

Guru Verdict: This is probably the most competitive category of the week. Many will lean toward Cantlay or Morikawa, who both have outstanding records at Muirfield Village. I think the play is Zalatoris, who is coming off a missed cut at Colonial following his playoff defeat at the PGA Championship. The 25-year-old leads the PGA Tour in SG: Tee-to-Green and is also sixth in GIR percentage. Zalatoris has a knack for playing well on harder courses.

World Elite

Players Included: Hideki Matsuyama, Cameron Smith, Joaquin Niemann, Sungjae Im, Mito Pereira

Guru Verdict: The most popular play in this category will likely be Smith, but his record at Muirfield Village is poor with four missed cuts and a best finish of T65. Granted, he is playing easily the best golf of his career right now. There are several great ball strikers in this group, but I'm taking Matsuyama. The Japanese star ranks sixth in SG: Approach, 12th in GIR percentage and 18th in proximity to the hole. Matsuyama also owns a win here among four top-15s.

US Challengers

Players Included: Daniel Berger, Billy Horschel, Max Homa, Harris English, Cameron Young, Davis Riley

Guru Verdict: Young and Riley have been the two hot-shot rookies that have been absolutely rolling of late. Somehow it still feels like Homa is going under the radar. His two wins are obviously great, but his consistency through the bag has been especially impressive. Homa has made the cut in 14 of 16 appearances season and has a whopping 10 top-25 finishes. He ranks top-30 in a number of key stats, like SG: Off-the-Tee, SG: Approach, SG: Putting, SG: Tee-to-Green, birdie average and scoring average.

Muirfield Specialists

Players Included: Adam Scott, Patrick Reed, Matt Kuchar, Gary Woodland, Kevin Streelman, Bryson DeChambeau

Guru Verdict: While he doesn't feature the exact type of statistical profile I would expect to contend at Muirfield Village, Kuchar has been the most consistent player in this category. The veteran has made six straight cuts, a stretch that includes four top-16 finishes. Kuchar's record at the Memorial is also something to behold. He had a stretch here of 11 straight years finishing inside the top 26, including a win and five top-5s. Kuchar leads the PGA Tour in SG: Around-the-Green and is 13th in SG: Putting.

International Talent

Players Included: Seamus Power, Corey Conners, Jason Day, Marc Leishman, Abraham Ancer, Si Woo Kim

Guru Verdict: This is the type of course that should be perfect for a player like Conners. The Canadian ranks sixth in SG: Off-the-Tee, 11th in total driving, 11th in GIR percentage and 28th in proximity to the hole. Conners has also probably had the most consistent last three months of anyone his category, making the cut in seven of his last eight starts, a stretch that includes four top-12 finishes. Conners has never not played the weekend in four career attempts at Muirfield Village.

Wild Cards

Players Included: Keegan Bradley, Tom Hoge, Cameron Tringale, Anirban Lahiri, K.H. Lee, Chris Kirk, Aaron Wise

Guru Verdict: This was a very close race for me between Bradley and Kirk. I'm going to lean with Kirk because he's a little more accurate off the tee and has a better short game. The 37-year-old followed up his best career major finish of T5 at Southern Hills with a T15 at Colonial -- and that result could have been a whole lot better. Kirk ranks eighth on Tour in SG: Tee-to-Treen, which is always a notable stat in the Memorial.

Long Shots

Players Included: Brendan Steele, Lucas Herbert, Jhonattan Vegas, Rickie Fowler, Alex Noren, Matthew Wolff, Brian Harman

Guru Verdict: After missing his first five cuts in 2022, Steele has found his game again. He has made his last six cuts, a stretch that includes three top-15 finishes. One of those was a T9 at the PGA Championship, where he ranked fourth in SG: Approach, third in SG: Tee-to-Green and first in GIR percentage. Steele has also made his last seven cuts at Muirfield Village, including a T13 in 2020.

Ryan's Selections

European Stars: Jon Rahm
US Elite: Will Zalatoris
World Elite: Hideki Matsuyama
US Challengers: Max Homa
Muirfield Specialists: Matt Kuchar
International Talent: Corey Conners
Wild Cards: Chris Kirk
Long Shots: Brendan Steele

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Ryan  Andrade
Ryan has covered golf, college basketball, and motorsports for RotoWire since 2016. He was nominated for "DFS Writer of the Year" in 2021 and 2023 by the FSWA.
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