Weekly Preview: WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play

WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play

Austin Country Club
Austin, TX

The PGA Tour heads to Texas for its own form of "Madness." It's not quite the level we saw when the entire tournament was single elimination, but it's still pretty intriguing by PGA Tour standards.

Speaking of that, I wonder how the public feels about the current format. Personally, I prefer the one-and-done. Yes, I realize the golfers do not like traveling for only one guaranteed round, but how in the world can anyone complain about a $50,000 paycheck to play 18 holes and head home for an extended weekend? I also realize the old style was not very TV-friendly, as many top seeds were eliminated before the weekend, but has the new format really fixed that issue? I think that's where the problem lies. Like the NCAA Tournament, this event was never supposed to only be about the final, but rather the first couple rounds when the excitement peaks. Only the hard-core fans stick around to watch the final, but everyone loves the early games because the action is fast-paced and lots lies ahead. The same held true for this tournament under the old format. The first couple days were great, and if the weekend was a dud, so be it. Now ,the first day doesn't necessarily mean anything, and day three, well, you could have several matches that have no bearing on the final result. I like this event, but I liked it more when there was drama from the start.

LAST YEAR

This tournament was not held last year due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but in 2019, Kevin Kisner defeated Matt Kuchar in the final matchup.

FAVORITES

Bryson DeChambeau (12-1)

First, remember that this week is crazy, and playing favorites might be a fool's errand. Favorites have won this event, but it just doesn't happen that often. In reality, no one in the field should be below the 20-1 this week, as it takes either extreme luck or five days of locked-in golf to win this thing. DeChambeau played this event just once and finished T40. That's not exactly what you'd like to see from the favorite. He could definitely go on a run, but at this price, there's not much value.

Justin Thomas (12-1)

Fresh off a win at THE PLAYERS Championship, Thomas comes into this week in great form. But will that translate to wins in this format? It certainly could, or perhaps he runs into a freight train and can't get past a certain golfer. That's the problem with this setup -- you have no idea what's going to happen on a given day and one bad round could ruin the entire trip. As for Thomas' track record here, he has only one good showing in four starts. He too provides little value.

Dustin Johnson (12-1)

Johnson has a lengthy track record at this event and on this course, but since the tournament moved to Austin full-time, DJ has been hit-or-miss. He won it in 2017, a year after finishing T5, but his last two tries resulted in early exits. His form is good enough to win but again, the odds just aren't there for any of the guys in this group. One advantage DJ has over the other favorites is that his group appears to be the weakest of the bunch, so his chances of advancing to the Round of 16 are promising.

THE NEXT TIER

Collin Morikawa (20-1)

This is the range where you can start making some plays. Morikawa has already overcome the best fields in the world, and it would not be a surprise to see him come out on top this week. He enters as the 4th-ranked golfer in the field, and his group shouldn't be an issue. Max Homa could be a problem, but Morikawa should cruise into the Round of 16. Once there, he's no worse than 50/50 again anyone remaining.

Viktor Hovland (25-1)

It's hard to say that any group looks weak, as you just don't know how any of these guys will play out of the gate, but one advantage Hovland has is that his group lacks star power. There are no big names to tackle, just a bunch of solid players. Hovland has been playing at a high level all season and should be able to get through his initial group. After that, it's anyone's guess, but I'd give him a fighting chance against anyone teeing it up this week.

Tommy Fleetwood (50-1)

With the way the odds are set up, if you aren't the top-ranked player in your group you are coming in at a lofty number. That holds true for Fleetwood, as he's in DeChambeau's group this week, but I don't see DeChambeau as a lock to move onto the Round of 16. Fleetwood hasn't exactly been a model of consistency this season, but when he's on, he's about as good as it gets. If he can emerge from his group, he can make trouble for anyone in this field.

LONG SHOTS

Will Zalatoris (50-1)

Zalatoris is perfect for this format. He's playing at a high level, but he's been unable to break through for a win. If he keeps up his pace, he should find himself in the final 16. Avoiding the lows is a big plus in this format and Zalatoris has managed to do that since joining the PGA Tour last year. His group is gettable with Tony Finau at the top, but Jason Kokrak could spell trouble.

Erik van Rooyen (150-1)

It has been a while since van Rooyen's form caught anyone's attention, but one of the last men in the field caught a break with his group. At the top is Daniel Berger, who may or may not be healthy at the moment. Then there's Harris English, who has also had issues lately. If van Rooyen finds his game, he could make his way out of his group.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Collin Morikawa - It's hard to determine how the distribution will look this week. Most seasoned OAD players know to stay away from the elite players because of the variance, but JT might look very tempting to some. I think Morikawa hits the sweet spot, as someone who can win this week and also someone you wouldn't feel bad about using at this point of the season.

Moderately-owned Pick: Viktor Hovland - Hovland is coming off a missed cut at the PLAYERS, which will scare plenty of OAD players off, but I think he's in a spot to thrive. When choosing your golfer this week, this first thing you need to look at are his chances to reach the Round of 16. Hovland's are high in my opinion, and I wouldn't worry about not having his services over the rest of the season.

Lightly-owned Pick: Will Zalatoris - The rookie been productive all season and now has a chance to make a big chunk of change. He won't be very popular this week because the field is so deep, but he's got a good chance to make it out of his group, and anything goes after that.

Buyer Beware: Justin Thomas - He's coming off a great week at The PLAYERS and appears to have put his early-season struggles behind him, but this tournament is like no other, and all it takes is one bad day and you're out. Thomas has a tough group to get through, one that includes defending champion Kevin Kisner and Louis Oosthuizen, who is always a tough out in this format. If Thomas reaches the final 16 he's got a good chance to win, but it'll be a grind just to get there.

Last Week: Byeong Hun An - MC - $0

Season Total: $2,305,892

This week: Viktor Hovland - It's all about timing, and although my timing has been off for most of the year, I feel good about getting Hovland right now. A couple weeks ago I passed on him because it felt like his hot streak was coming to an end, but after a couple of poor outings, I think he's ready to bounce back. Hovland might be a popular play, but the picks should be spread out enough that if you take him, you'll make up plenty of ground with a good performance.

FANDUEL PICKS

FanDuel is not offering contests for the Match Play event, but they are for the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship, and players to check out include Emiliano Grillo ($11,600), Will Gordon ($10,500) and Xinjun Zhang ($8,900).

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last week: Lee Westwood - MC

Streak: 0

This Week: N/A