This article is part of our Yahoo PGA DFS Picks series.
AT&T Byron Nelson
Dallas, Texas
Trinity Forest Golf Club - Par 71 - 7,371 yards
Field - 156 Entrants
Purse - $7.9M
The Preview
We're just one week out from the year's second major, but for now, a theme of feeble competition continues this week at the AT&T Byron Nelson as much of the game's top talent preps for Bethpage Black. The recent Wells Fargo Championship became a two-man race between Max Homa and Joel Dahmen, and the trend of undistinguished contenders could maintain at Trinity Forest with just 14 of the Official World Golf Ranking's top 50 in attendance. Trinity Forest debuted as the site of the AT&T Byron Nelson in 2018, and it quickly became clear the course is willing to cede plenty of birdies if the wind isn't howling. Well, the breeze is going to be extremely tame again for this year's edition and thunderstorms earlier in the week will result in soft conditions, making the abnormally-sized fairways and greens even easier to hit. There's virtually no trouble off the tee, as the layout lacks potential hazards in terms of water, trees or even rough. It certainly wouldn't be shocking if the eventual champion reaches the 20-under threshold again.
Recent Champions
2018 - Aaron Wise (Trinity Forest)
2017 - Billy Horschel
2016 - Sergio Garcia
2015 - Steven Bowditch
2014 - Brendon Todd
2013 - Sangmoon Bae
2012 - Jason Dufner
2011 - Keegan Bradley
2010 - Jason Day
Key Stats to Victory
GIR percentage - Simply put, Trinity Forest's greens are massive and among the easiest to hit on Tour
Proximity - Players will need to be efficient in targeting pins in order to rack up birdie chances on these aforementioned gargantuan dance floors
Birdie or better percentage - A key component in both DFS scoring and real life this week, Wise reached 23-under en route to victory in 2018.
Putting inside 10 feet - Tying in with proximity and BoB percentage, it'll be paramount to capitalize on scoring opportunities as well as the second leg of two-putt pars from this range.
Yahoo Value Picks - based on $200 salary cap
Cream of the Crop
Brooks Koepka - $47
This week's betting favorite by a wide margin at 13/2 on GolfOdds.com, Koepka is still affordably priced on top despite being the undisputed best player in the field. Coming off a tie for runner-up honors at the Masters, the No. 3 player in the OWGR ranks first among his peers in SG: Total, first in birdie or better percentage, first in proximity from 150-175 yards and third in driving distance over his last 50 rounds.
Jordan Spieth - $40
Who could have ever imagined it would be this difficult to recommend the former World No. 1 in his hometown against an anemic field? Well, here we are, as a slumping Spieth travels back home to Dallas sitting 210th out of 213 qualified golfers in driving accuracy this season. Luckily for Spieth, the wide-open fairways and softer conditions at Trinity Forest should aid him off the tee. He has also gained strokes with the flat stick in three straight measured events.
Sungjae Im - $40
This is a relatively inflated expense for a rookie who has not won on the PGA Tour, but Im has reached the $40 mark by leading his peers in total birdies this season while also ranking top-25 in SG: Tee-to-Green and par-5 scoring. Im has gained an average of 3.7 strokes tee-to-green over his last 10 tournaments and he owns five top-10s through a hefty 21 appearances.
Glue Guys
Keith Mitchell - $37
Mitchell's breakout continued last week, as he broke 70 in all but one round at the Wells Fargo Championship en route to a T8 and a career-best 56th slot in the OWGR. He led the field in driving distance at Quail Hollow and collected 18 total par-breakers, tying for 7th in birdie or better percentage. Mitchell ranks 11th on Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee, second in total eagles and 16th in par-5 scoring. He also hit 65 greens in regulation and finished T3 at Trinity Forest in 2018.
Scott Piercy - $37
Quietly rising to 36th in the FedExCup standings with just two missed cuts in 15 starts this season, Piercy picked up steam by finishing T3 during his most recent performance at the RBC Heritage where he gained over seven strokes on his approach shots. In his Trinity Forest debut last year, Piercy ranked top-10 in both GIR and FIR percentage to ultimately average five birdies per round.
Aaron Wise - $35
The defending champion will foster plenty of well-warranted attention this week after he completely obliterated expectations at Trinity Forest last year with an insane 66 total greens in regulation to accompany 26 par-breakers. Expect even more exposure when you toss in the fact he posted back-to-back top-20s at the Wells Fargo Championship and the Masters. Wise ranks third in SG: Off-the-Tee throughout his last 12 rounds, but he also lost an average of 0.7 strokes putting over his past five tournaments.
Bargain Bin
Rory Sabbatini - $28
The 43-year-old has finished top-40 in seven consecutive starts dating back to the Honda Classic, notching a trio of top-20s during this span as well. He's third in SG: Total, seventh in SG: Tee-to-Green and third in SG: Around-the-Green over his last 24 rounds, gaining an average of 4.9 strokes tee-to-green in his last five events. Sabbatini carded just three total bogeys at last year's AT&T Byron Nelson, posting a T13 result despite finishing outside of the top-35 in driving accuracy and GIR percentage.
Brian Stuard - $26
With top-20s in four of his last six starts, Stuard has gained an average of 2.7 strokes putting and three strokes on approach shots over his past five tournaments. He's up to 16th on Tour in proximity this season, and impressively played the par-3s in four-under-par at Trinity Forest last year.
Scottie Scheffler - $20
The Dallas native and former Longhorn standout enters the AT&T Byron Nelson in exceptional form with results of 2-T7-5-2 through his last four starts on the Web.com Tour. He also threw in a T20 at the Valero Texas Open in early April, adding to his noteworthy run. In two starts at the PGA level this season, Scheffler gained a total of 15.6 strokes tee-to-green, but he will need the putter to come around in order to contend.
Strategy Tips on Yahoo this week
With so few household names in the field this week there is plenty of value to locate in the lower price ranges, as tricky finesse stats like scrambling and driving accuracy are essentially thrown out the door at this Byron Nelson venue. Especially from a DFS standpoint, it's all about selecting weapons who are capable of compiling a handful of birdies in a hurry, emphasizing driving distance, iron proximity and putting over wedge play around the greens as GIR percentages inflate. Playing conservatively and settling for pars won't get you far at Trinity Forest.
