This article is part of our Yahoo PGA DFS Picks series.
BMW Championship
Olympia Fields, Illinois
Olympia Fields Country Club (North Course) - Par 70 - 7,366 yards
Field - 50 entrants
Purse - $20M
The Preview
After an improbably rapid ascension to fourth in the FedExCup standings, we're left wondering if anyone can beat Lucas Glover as we head into the second leg of the playoffs, because nobody's been able to take down the 43-year-old in recent weeks at the Wyndham Championship and the FedEx St. Jude Championship as he resurrects his career while joining the Ryder Cup conversation late. Fifty players now advance to the BMW Championship where Olympia Fields Country Club is set to play host for only the second time, and it was anything but a walk in the park during the 2020 edition. An overtime duel between eventual champion Jon Rahm and Dustin Johnson followed their four-under-par performances across the first 72 holes, and just five total competitors finished the tournament in red numbers. Brutally tough scoring conditions throughout this lengthy par-70 layout can be attributed to Olympia Fields' narrow fairways, lined with trees and thick rough as GIR percentages severely deflate into small and fast greens. Additionally, driving distance could especially be rewarded if enough rain falls Thursday morning to soften the grounds.
Recent Champions
2022 - Patrick Cantlay (Wilmington)
2021 - Patrick Cantlay (Caves Valley)
2020 - Jon Rahm (Olympia Fields)
2019 - Justin Thomas (Medinah)
2018 - Keegan Bradley (Aronimink)
2017 - Marc Leishman (Conway Farms)
2016 - Dustin Johnson (Crooked Stick)
2015 - Jason Day (Conway Farms)
2014 - Billy Horschel (Cherry Hills)
2013 - Zach Johnson (Conway Farms)
Key Stats to Victory
SG: Off-the-Tee
Scrambling
Par-4 Efficiency
Bogey avoidance
Yahoo Value Picks
Based on $200 salary cap
Cream of the Crop
Rory McIlroy - $47
Second to none in both SG: Off-the-Tee and driving distance this season, McIlroy's at such an advantage with the big stick in his hands at Olympia Fields, where he held a share of the 36-hole lead in 2020. Over his last 24 measured rounds, McIlroy is No. 1 in par-4 scoring, third in P4: 450-500 Efficiency, third in bogey avoidance and fourth in SG: Approach as he's placed no worse than ninth across eight consecutive starts from the PGA Championship through the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
Patrick Cantlay - $46
Cantlay joined the aforementioned McIlroy in the share for the 36-hole lead here in 2020 before the former went on to win both the 2021 and 2022 editions of the BMW Championship elsewhere, so he'll look to make it three in a row after recently losing in a playoff at TPC Southwind on Sunday afternoon. He paced the FedEx St. Jude field in both SG: Around-the-Green and SG: Tee-to-Green en route to the runner-up honors, and over his last 24 rounds, Cantlay is third in SG: OTT, fifth in bogey avoidance, sixth in driving accuracy and 10th in scrambling.
Viktor Hovland - $42
Hovland gained 4.5 strokes with his irons on the way to 22 total birdies and an eagle last week in Memphis, racking up 87.5 fantasy points despite finishing outside the top-10. The par-breakers won't come in bunches this week at Olympia Fields, but Hovland nonetheless sits first in P4: 450-500 Efficiency over his last 24 rounds, and he actually leads the Tour in proximity on approaches from over 100 yards out of the rough this season.
Glue Guys
Jordan Spieth - $35
Spieth is quite discounted here at just $2 higher than the $33 average salary, so he could be a popular click in this fairly barren mid-$30s range, especially given he ranks top-10 in Good Drives Gained over his last 24 rounds. Spieth's short game carried him to a T6 result this past week at TPC Southwind, where he gained a collective six strokes on and around the greens.
Tyrrell Hatton - $32
Contrasting with Spieth, Hatton lost nearly four strokes with his short game last week in Memphis, falling into a tie for 43rd as he ranked just 63rd of 70 in SG: Around-the-Green. However, the Englishman still managed to convert 75 percent of his scrambling opportunities, and I'm happy to buy the dip on Hatton as his salary dives $7 to $32. Over his last 24 rounds, Hatton is third in Par-4 Efficiency, fourth in bogey avoidance, ninth in SG: OTT and ninth in driving distance.
Tommy Fleetwood - $31
Fleetwood once again flirted with the idea of picking up his maiden PGA Tour victory last week in Memphis, but he stayed true to himself by falling one shot shy of the playoff and therefore tying for third. He did most of his damage on the greens as he paced the FedEx St. Jude field in putts per GIR while ranking second in SG: Putting. The ball striking hasn't been too shabby, either, sitting sixth in SG: OTT and ninth in driving accuracy over his past 24 rounds, guiding him to five top-10s across six starts dating to the RBC Canadian Open.
Bargain Bin
Collin Morikawa - $28
Even in a 50-man playoff event with no cut, Morikawa seems pretty egregiously mispriced, while he's second in Good Drives Gained, fourth in driving accuracy and sixth in SG: Approach over his last 24 rounds. Morikawa obviously boasts the iron prowess necessary to contend here if the lack of power off the tee is concerning, and he just hit the fourth-most greens in regulation at the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
Corey Conners - $25
The Canadian finished top-8 among the 2020 BMW Championship field in both GIR and FIR percentage during his first look at Olympia Fields a few years ago, and he's now ninth or better in SG: OTT and P4: 450-500 Efficiency over his past 24 rounds. Conners hasn't lost strokes with his driver in a single event since THE PLAYERS in March, and he's coming off a T6 at TPC Southwind where he fired back-to-back 65s to close out the weekend.
Hideki Matsuyama - $23
Laughably priced identically to Denny McCarthy, Matsuyama figures to draw attention at just $23 despite hitting only 27 of 56 fairways in regulation at the FedEx St. Jude last week. He ranked fifth in SG: Around-the-Green in Memphis, and he's also fifth in SG: Approach over his past 24 rounds. Albeit a four-day sample, people will be drawn to Matsuyama's T3 at Olympia Fields in 2020 when he gained 8.7 strokes from tee to green.
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