NHL 2025-26 Early Season Trends & Fantasy Breakouts You Can't Ignore

It's hard to think, but the NHL season is already 10 percent done. Time really flies, especially early in the year. 

That means we're starting to see some trends emerge. The Atlantic Division in particular is interesting. The Panthers are doing a decent job of treading water amid a brutal stretch of injuries, but the Lightning and Maple Leafs could both be classified as slow starters. On the flip side, the Canadiens and Red Wings appear to have made serious progress early in the year. 

All of the teams in the Atlantic could do with tightening up the defense. Teams like the Devils and Mammoth have combined strong offense with sharp defense so far to help take their places among the league's best teams in October. The Kings, meanwhile, have been unusually leaky, as it appears their offseason moves haven't helped, even though the system remains effective. 

It's still a little too early to make sweeping judgments about any team. Some teams haven't had their full lineup together yet, and some have had too many injuries to really settle into a rhythm. If the early trends hold, this could be a year of upheaval for some perennial playoff contenders and a big jump for a few rebuilding squads that should be ready to compete. For me, the biggest early positive surprises have been the Kraken, the Blackhawks, the Red Wings and the Penguins, while I'm a little shocked by the struggles of the Lightning, the Wild and the Kings. It may just take time, but some of these surprise teams will hang around all year. That's exciting to see -- it's always good when there's new blood in the playoffs. 

Rookie Sensations and Fantasy Breakouts Making Early Noise

Speaking of unexpected success, take a look at what Emmitt Finnie has done so far. Through his first nine games, he's racked up four goals, four assists, 17 shots on net, 25 hits and a plus-7 rating. That's not just remarkable scoring for a 20-year-old rookie, but there's sufficient category coverage. He's helped Dylan Larkin off to a hot start. I didn't want to recommend Finnie until he earned power-play time, and he has received substantial time in that situation since Patrick Kane (upper body) exited the lineup. Finnie's journey from seventh-round pick in 2023 to top-line NHLer is uncommon, but don't hold that draft slot against him. 

I still have trouble trusting the Canucks' offense in general, but I'm not sleeping on Conor Garland. He's been consistent to start the year, and he's a proven 50-point producer. He's collected 10 points over his last seven games while adding 17 shots on net, eight hits and a plus-6 rating in that span. Top-line wingers aren't available everywhere. Grab Garland while he's productive, and hope that he can keep his chemistry with Elias Pettersson going for the long run. 

Jacob Trouba won't always score enough to help in fantasy, but when he chips in a little offense, he becomes a multi-category threat. That's what he's done over the last week with five points across his last three games. The defenseman already has 24 hits, 19 blocked shots and a plus-8 rating this season, though he has yet to sit in the penalty box. The Ducks have more offense to go around this year, and that bodes well for Trouba getting closer to the 30-point mark after falling short of that threshold in each of the last two campaigns. 

I'm seeing more out of Dmitri Voronkov this year. The big thing so far has been consistency -- the 25-year-old has gotten on the scoresheet in seven of eight games. He's earned five goals, four assists, 17 shots on net, 19 hits, 10 PIM and a plus-8 rating. Most importantly, he's been productive even amid a slow start for linemate Sean Monahan. The Blue Jackets still have a young enough team to see a collective breakout, and that could lead to a massive jump for Voronkov from his 23-goal, 47-point 2024-25 season. 

I didn't think much about Emil Heineman's potential when he was flipped to the Islanders in the Noah Dobson trade. In hindsight, that was a major oversight. Heineman is a 23-year-old winger, and he landed on a team lacking bona fide scoring threats in the middle six. Sure, there are plenty of average contributors, but few that stand out. Heineman's not there yet, but a breakout season is evident. He's at five goals, one assist, 13 shots on net and a whopping 35 hits over eight contests. He's on the second line and seeing power-play time. It would be good to see him mix in some playmaking to balance his offense, as his goal-scoring pace will eventually fade. For now, ride the hot hand. 

Waiver Wire Strategy and Player Value Momentum

While I thought the Kraken would be getting their gains on offense from young players, it's actually been a strong start from a couple of veteran forwards leading the way. Jaden Schwartz has done his part with eight points, 16 shots on net and 18 hits over nine contests so far. He's on the second line and filling a power-play role, with two of his points coming with the man advantage. Schwartz has always had talent, and he's worth rostering in fantasy as long as he can stay healthy. 

Meanwhile, Jordan Eberle is doing similar work for Seattle's top line. He's earned a point in seven of nine games, highlighted by a two-goal effort against the Oilers on Saturday. He's also at eight points, adding 23 shots on net, 11 hits and a plus-4 rating. Eberle has typically played well with Matty Beniers in the past, and they're joined by rookie Berkly Catton as the Kraken navigate some injuries. There's always a risk of age-related decline for players in their mid-30s, but it looks like Eberle will stave that off and even provide stronger category coverage than usual. 

I mentioned Evgeni Malkin's start last week, but it's only fair to highlight the work of his linemate, Justin Brazeau, whose success on the second line is among the biggest surprises yet. Five goals and four assists will get the headlines, and in fantasy, he adds 14 hits, 10 blocked shots, 15 shots on net and a plus-2 rating. His history is as a defensive forward, so the non-scoring production should remain steady. It's not just that Brazeau, Malkin and Anthony Mantha have looked good together, but it's about how much better Malkin has looked with these linemates than in recent years. Finding chemistry like that is valuable, and it'll make it tough for head coach Dan Muse to split the trio up.

The Penguins have also seen Kris Letang pick up the pace over the last week. Letang has earned all four of his points this year over the last four games. Through nine contests, he's added 14 blocked shots, 12 hits and a plus-6 rating. Letang's offense has slipped in recent years, especially with Erik Karlsson getting the larger share of power-play time. The key with the Penguins overall will be keeping the goal-scoring up. Letang can add category coverage, but you'd want him to be in the 35-40 point range for the season. 

I've always liked Dawson Mercer's game, especially since he has yet to miss a contest in his career. I value availability, but it's been frustrating in the last couple of seasons to see him fall short of his peak scoring potential. So far in 2025-26, he's started well with three goals, five assists, 15 shots on net and a plus-7 rating over nine contests. Mercer should have versatility between center and right wing, as he's played both positions. He'll likely be a third-line center for a while due to the absence of Cody Glass (upper body). Mercer's career high is 56 points in 2022-23, but he could push past 60 points if this hot start lasts all year. 

Unexpected Standout Goalies Shaking Up Crease Situations

The Canadiens' success has mostly been from offense, but there's an interesting thing happening in goal. Sam Montembeault is off to a shaky start, but Jakub Dobes has picked up the slack by winning all five of his starts this season. Dobes also has a 1.77 GAA and a .940 save percentage. We saw similar production out of him early last year, but after opening his NHL career on a five-game winning streak, he struggled the rest of the way in 2024-25. Dobes should be rostered in most formats, as he's pushing Montembeault for a 50-50 split, but the former could lose those gains if his performance slips dramatically again. 

Perhaps among the most unexpected early stories is the success of Dan Vladar with the Flyers. He's just 3-2-0 to start the year, but his 1.81 GAA and .932 save percentage tell a story of a goalie who has settled in quickly with his new team. Vladar has a track record of being a serviceable tandem goalie -- the surprise comes from him finding success with a team like the Flyers, who are still a couple of years away from contention. Vladar is starting to gain a majority of the playing time over Samuel Ersson, but this crease battle could go back-and-forth all year, so ride the hot hand. 

The fun part of this time of year is figuring out what's real and what's not. Some players' hot starts are a mirage, while others are a prophecy for a breakout year. You don't have to have the answers right now. If you trust a player's numbers and they're in a good role, pick them up. If the offense lasts, it's like free money to help your team. If they fade, you'll get injured players back or make another move on the waiver wire to fill the gap. Only time will tell which players are stepping up and which are just making temporary noise. In any case, it's worth watching how their seasons progress -- sometimes you'll have to circle back to a player a few times. Keep an open mind as you scour the waiver wire this week to find reinforcements, and I'll be back with more next Monday. 

Stuck between two players available on the waiver wire? Check out the NHL Player Comparison Tool or the NHL Trending Players to help break the tiebreaker on your waiver wire decisions.