This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC 292 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $750k UFC 292 Special with $200k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Bantamweight Championship
(C) Aljamain Sterling (23-3-0) v. Sean O'Malley (16-1-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Sterling ($8,900), O'Malley ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Sterling (-265), O'Malley (+215)
Odds to Finish: -215
Sterling catches a lot of flack, but he's been the best 135-pounder in the world for a while now. He's won nine in a row, including victories over Henry Cejudo, TJ Dillashaw, Petr Yan (twice), Cory Sandhagen and Pedro Munhoz. In other words, he's beaten the best the division has to offer on a consistent basis and has shown no signs of slowing down. Cejudo put a scare into Sterling in their bout in early-May, but Aljo was deserving of the split decision win he received.
Theoretically, O'Malley is undefeated in his last five fights (4-0, 1NC) and deserves this opportunity, but his split decision victory over Yan last October was a truly horrific call, leaving "Sugar" in position for a title shot, and Yan back to the drawing board following a third straight loss. Sean has faced three notable opponents during his time with the company. Yan, who I previously mentioned, Munhoz, who he fought to a no contest following an early accidential eye poke, and Marlon Vera, who he was defeating before suffering a foot injury that resulted in him being knocked out. To summarize, the gap in competition each man has faced is massive.
O'Malley would be an overwhelming favorite if this was a kickboxing match. He's four inches taller, has far more pure power and is much more creative on the feet. But this is mixed martial arts.
The reason he finds himself a hefty underdog is because everyone, myself included, is simply under the belief Sterling is going to wrestle the heck out of O'Malley for 25 minutes. Aljo may be smaller, but I'm also willing to wager he's considerably stronger. He's a big bantamweight and very tough to out-muscle at the point of attack.
Sean gave up a half-dozen takedowns to Yan on 13 attempts. He spent at least 70 seconds in each round being controlled. Here, he's going to have to try to stifle Sterling's takedown attempts for 25 minutes. Even if he's successful more often that not, I have a very difficult time seeing O'Malley being able to get back to his feet if Aljo gets him to the mat.
Sterling has also proven over the years he could care less about style points. He's not going to try to outpoint O'Malley on the feet to try and make a statement. He wants to win, and his best chance of doing that is clearly to lean on his wrestling game.
I like O'Malley and think he's a top-five fighter on a loaded division, but this just seems like a nightmare matchup for him. He doesn't interest me at all as a DK punt play, either.
UFC 292 PICK: Sterling
Co-Main Event - Women's Strawwweight Championship
(C) Zhang Weili (23-3-0) v. Amanda Lemos (13-2-1)
DK Salaries: Zhang ($9,200), Lemos ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Zhang (-330), Lemos (+240)
Odds to Finish: -350
Zhang regained the UFC Women's Strawweight Championship last November at Madison Square Garden, dominating Carla Esparza before submitting her early in Round 2. It was the expected result for a fighter whose only two defeats in nine fights with the company have both come against Rose Namajunas.
Lemos is far from a household name, but a stretch in which she has won seven of eight including recent back-to-back stoppage wins over Marina Rodriguez and Michelle Waterson is enough to earn a title shot given the state of the division.
The gap in competition these two have faced is arguably wider than that of Sterling and O'Malley in the main event.
Zhang's physical gifts, particularly in the stand-up, are probably the best the division has to offer. Her durability is also exceptional for a woman that pushes forward with little regard for what is coming back her way. I'd like to see her pick her spots a bit better, but it's impossible to argue with the results.
Lemos has more power than your typical strawweight, but I certainly would advise her against getting in a back-and-forth slugfest with Zhang.
The question at that point becomes how does Lemos win this fight? She has three career wins via submission, including two with the UFC, but she's certainly not your prototypical Brazilian mat specialist. She can wrestle in a pinch (1.12 takedowns per 15 minutes), but that's also not a strength of hers.
The most likely scenario is at age 36, Lemos' movement and athleticism have waned just enough for Zhang to find and opening and overwhelm her opposition on the feet.
I'd prefer Zhang is she was a bit cheaper in terms of salary, but she should win regardless.
UFC 292 PICK: Zhang
Welterweight
Neil Magny (28-11-0) v. Ian Garry (12-0-0)
DK Salaries: Magny ($6,600), Garry ($9,600)
Vegas Odds: Magny (+340), Garry (-440)
Odds to Finish: -165
Garry was due to face Geoff Neal here before Magny -- who never turns down a fight against anyone -- stepped in on about two weeks' notice.
Five fights into his UFC run, Garry is 5-0 with three knockouts. His first four victories came against middling competition (Jordan Williams, Darian Weeks, Gabriel Green, Song Kenan), but his most recent wins over Daniel Rodriguez was legitimate. That said, Magny represents by far the stiffest test Garry has seen to date.
Now 36 years of age, Magny hasn't showed signs of slowing down much. He's alternated wins and losses in his past five fights and has always struggled against high-end competition, but no fighter in the company is better at tailoring their game plan to their competition and making the necessary adjustments on a fight-by-fight basis. Magny might not win this fight, but I'd be flabbergasted if the fact he took it on short notice is the reason why.
Garry has ridiculous power. He lands 6.85 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.09 per minute. Neal, his originally scheduled opponent, employs a similar strategy, although not as effectively. Magny, on the other hand, is perfectly content to pick his spots and mix things up.
Both men are massive welterweights at 6-foot-3, but Magny will entering with a ridiculous six-inch reach edge, something Garry will have to negate if he wants to hit Magny with any sort of regularity.
Neither have displayed any durability issues. Magny has been stopped via strikes just twice in 38 pro bouts. A prolonged kickboxing match clearly favors Garry, while most everything else would seem to be in Magny's favor.
The Neal fight seemed to be a better matchup for Ian. I can absolutely envision a scenario in which Magny -- who averages 2.3 takedowns per 15 minutes and has elite cardio -- makes this an ugly, grinding affair in which he limits Garry's space and takes a decision.
I wanted to take Garry and I would have over Neal, but there's simply too much value on the Magny side for me to pass. He's made a career of winning fights like this.
UFC 292 PICK: Magny
Bantamweight
Marlon Vera (20-8-1) v. Pedro Munhoz (20-7-0, 2NC)
DK Salaries: Vera ($8,600), Munhoz ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Vera (-185), Munhoz (+155)
Odds to Finish: +210
Vera was supposed to face Henry Cejudo here before "Triple C" had to bail due to a shoulder injury. Munhoz agreed to step in in early-July.
Marlon had a four-fight winning streak snapped in a main event, a split decision loss to Cory Sandhagen in late-March. Disregard the "split decision" term. The judge that scored the fight for Vera should have been fired on the spot. To give you an idea how bad it was, the other two had it 50-45 and 49-46 for Sandhagen. It wasn't a good performance from Marlon.
Fresh off a stretch in which he won just once in six fights (1-4, 1NC), Munhoz almost certainly saved his job with a unanimous decision win over Chris Gutierrez in mid-April. Pedro has an intriguing all-around skill set and is extremely durable, but set to turn 37 years of age in early-September, his best days are almost certainly behind him.
I never bought Vera as a legitimate title contender, but I've certainly underrated him over the years. He's one of a very small group of fighters that has improved considerably as he's aged, and although I think there's a gap between Vera and the best the bantamweight has to over, he's firmly in that 5-to-7 range in one of the deepest divisions in the sport.
Sandhagen is an excellent striker, so I'm not too worried about Vera's poor effort there. He's bigger than Munhoz and his stand-up skills have most definitely improved over the years. Munhoz may have more pure power, but Marlon is much more technical in what projects as primarily a three-round striking battle.
Vera has never been knocked out (neither has Munhoz for that matter), so if you think Pedro is going to win, you're looking for plenty of volume on the feet, in addition to him consistently attacking Marlon in an intelligent matter. I'd bet against that.
UFC 292 PICK: Vera
Middleweight
Chris Weidman (15-6-0) v. Brad Tavares (19-9-0)
DK Salaries: Weidman ($7,200), Tavares ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Weidman (+220), Tavares (-270)
Odds to Finish: -140
Now 39 years of age, Weidman will be fighting for the first time since April 2021. He broke his right tibia and fibula that night after Uriah Hall checked a leg kick. Weidman had surgery immediately after the injury and then had to undergo a second procedure due the fact the fracture didn't heal properly.
Weidman is 2-6 in his past eight fights dating back to December 12, 2015 -- the night he lost the UFC Middleweight Championship to Luke Rockhold. Chris left Long Island a couple years back, moving his family down to South Carolina so he could train full-time with brother-in-law Stephen Thompson.
Tavares has lost four of his last six, so he isn't in much better shape. His most recent bout was a knockout defeat to Bruno Silva this past April. Tavares will be 36 years of age in late-December. He's had a nice run with the UFC, but has always struggled to win the "big" fight. Whether or not a victory over Weidman at this stage of his career qualifies is certainly up for debate.
In his prime, Weidman's wrestling game was among the best in the sport. He always absorbed too much damage on the feet, but his ability to pressure and ground his opposition was virtually unmatched, particularly at 185 pounds. Even with his recent struggles, he's still averaging 3.92 takedowns per 15 minutes during his time with the company.
Tavares defends the takedown at an 80 percent clip, which is key considering Weidman doesn't offer much else these days, at least from an offensive standpoint.
Brad has started to display durability issues of late, but I doubt Chris can take advantage in that department. I absolutely trust Tavares' ability to take a punch more than Weidman's at this stage of their respective careers.
As I mentioned earlier, any Weidman victory will have to involve plenty of ground control time. Given his age and all the time off, I'd bet against it happening. What's more likely is that Tavares is able to remain predominantly upright and finish Chris with power shots.
When this fight was announced, I expected Tavares to be roughly a -120 favorite. The line (and his DK salary) may be plenty justified when all is said and done, but it's far too high for my personal liking. That said, I don't have much interest in Weidman as an underdog. He's one of my favorites of all time, but I think he's reached the end of the line. Give me Tavares by default.
UFC 292 PICK: Tavares
Other Bouts
Bantamweight
Mario Bautista (12-2-0) v. Da'Mon Blackshear (14-5-1)
DK Salaries: Bautista ($9,100), Blackshear ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Bautista (-225), Blackshear (+180)
Odds to Finish: TBD
UFC 292 PICK: Blackshear
Middleweight
Gregory Rodrigues (13-5-0) v. Denis Tiuliulin (10-7-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Rodrigues ($9,500), Tiuliulin ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Rodrigues (-345), Tiuliulin (+275)
Odds to Finish: -550
UFC 292 PICK: Rodrigues
Middleweight
Andre Petroski (9-2-0) v. Gerald Meerschaert (35-16-0)
DK Salaries: Petroski ($8,800), Meerschaert ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Petroski (-260), Meerschaert (+210)
Odds to Finish: -280
UFC 292 PICK: Petroski
Women's Flyweight
Andrea Lee (13-7-0) v. Natalia Silva (15-5-1)
DK Salaries: Lee ($6,800), Silva ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Lee (+280), Silva (-355)
Odds to Finish: +125
UFC 292 PICK: Silva
Women's Flyweight
Karine Silva (16-4-0) v. Maryna Moroz (11-4-0)
DK Salaries: Silva ($8,300), Moroz ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Silva (-165), Moroz (+140)
Odds to Finish: -120
UFC 292 PICK: Moroz
Lightweight - The Ultimate Fighter Finale
Austin Hubbard (16-6-0) v. Kurt Holobaugh (20-7-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Hubbard ($8,400), Holobaugh ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Hubbard (-175), Holobaugh (+145)
Odds to Finish: -105
UFC 292 PICK: Hubbard
Bantamweight - The Ultimate Fighter Finale
Cody Gibson (19-8-0) v. Brad Katona (12-2-0)
DK Salaries: Katona ($8,500), Gibson ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Katona (-170), Gibson (+140)
Odds to Finish: TBD
UFC 292 PICK: Katona
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC 292 with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
