This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Paris takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $800k UFC 278 Special with $200k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Heavyweight
Ciryl Gane (10-1-0) v. Tai Tuivasa (15-3-0)
DK Salaries: Gane ($9,500), Tuivasa ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Gane (-540), Tuivasa (+420)
Odds to Finish: -250
This is a monumental card, as it will mark the debut of the UFC in France. The country didn't legally approve MMA until 2020, and then the COVID-19 pandemic delayed the company staging an event there.
No one deserves to headline the first UFC event in France more than Gane. The big man won his first seven bouts with the company, including winning the interim UFC Heavyweight Championship against Derrick Lewis in August 2021. Gane took on Francis Ngannou in late-January in the unification bout and dropped a unanimous decision, the first setback of his career. Gane lost that fight because he allowed Ngannou to land four takedowns, which turned into nearly eight and a half minutes worth of control time. Gane's gas tank wasn't particularly impressive, which was a tad surprising considering he had gone the full 25 minutes in two other bouts with the company.
Tuivasa looked like a legitimate release candidate following a three-fight losing streak from December 2018 to October 2019, but he has since rebounded with five (!!!!) straight knockout wins, headlined by a victory over Lewis this past February. Tuivasa's last three outings have resulted in Performance of the Night bonuses. I never saw this turnaround coming, and certainly not to this extent.
Tai's power is obviously legitimate, and his durability has always been impressive, but I'm still fading him, especially against an elite opponent such as Gane. Tuivasa is a one-dimensional brawler who swings from the bleachers with every shot he throws and lets the chips fall where they may. It's worked for him of late, but wins over the likes of guys like Harry Hunsucker and Greg Hardy won't prepare you for Gane.
Gane is one of the most athletic heavyweights in UFC history. His footwork is exceptional, and he's never been knocked out as a professional. He is lightyears ahead of Tuivasa is terms of technical striking skill. I'd have no problem picking Tuivasa against mid-tier guys or opponents with durability issues, because his power and his ability to take a punch gives him a chance to get to score a knockout, but Cyril has displayed no such issues to date.
Any bet on Tuivasa as an underdog is strictly a bet in hopes he knocks Gane out. I see no reason to believe that's going to happen, and what should be a raucous crowd in France in Paris only serves to reaffirm by belief that Gane wins this fight easily.
UFC PARIS PICK: Gane
Co-Main Event - Middleweight
Robert Whittaker (24-6-0) v. Marvin Vettori (18-5-1)
DK Salaries: Whittaker ($8,800), Vettori ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Whittaker (-230), Vettori (+195)
Odds to Finish: +180
These two were scheduled to fight at UFC 275 in June before a Whittaker injury forced the bout to be pushed back a couple months.
It's quite clear at this point that Whittaker is either the second or third best middleweight on the planet, depending on whether or not you feel Alex Pereira's recent breakout is legitimate and sustainable. Whittaker made his middleweight debut in November 2014 and has won 11 of 13 fights since. His issue is that the two losses came to Israel Adesanya, the guy currently holding the belt. Whittaker should be praying for a Pereira victory when he and Izzy meet at Madison Square Garden this coming November.
Vettori continues to fly under the radar despite the fact he has quickly emerged as one of the middleweight division's best fighters. The Italian is 6-2 dating back to April 2018, with his two setbacks also coming against Adesanya. The first was a split decision loss. Vettori has victories in that stretch over Paulo Costa, Kevin Holland and Jack Hermansson, so he hasn't made a name for himself by beating up scrubs.
I think the result of this fight will be dictated by where it takes place. Vettori is a capable striker, but Whittaker should have a significant edge in that area, particularly in the power department. Vettori relies on plenty of volume in the stand-up, but other than Adesanya, no fighter has been able to damage Rob consistently on the feet.
On the flip side, Vettori is the better wrestler. He averages just over two (2.04) takedowns per 15 minutes. Yet, Whittaker has always been excellent at remaining upright, defending the takedown at a stellar 83-percent clip. I don't expect Rob to use his wrestling from an offensive standpoint, but stuffing Vettori's takedown attempts should be enough for him to pull away on the feet.
Everything seems about right here. My guess is that Vettori puts forth a capable effort before ultimately falling short. I'd probably have more interest in him from a DK perspective if this fight was scheduled for five rounds. With it scheduled for three, Whittaker has to be the pick.
UFC PARIS PICK: Whittaker
Lightweight
John Makdessi (18-7-0) v. Nasrat Haqparast (13-5-0)
DK Salaries: Makdessi ($7,500), Haqparast ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Makdessi (+195), Haqparast (-230)
Odds to Finish: +150
Makdessi turned 37 years of age this past May and hasn't fought much of late, making it extremely difficult for him to gain any traction in a loaded 155-pound division. The Canadian has competed just once each year from 2017-2021, and will be looking at nearly 17 months on the sidelines by the time fight night rolls around here. That's not a recipe for success.
I've always been intrigued by Haqparast's skills, but he could theoretically be fighting for his job here on the heels of back-to-back unanimous decision defeats to Bobby Green and Dan Hooker. Nasrat has legitimate power and tends to be extremely aggressive in the stand-up, but he struggles to generate offense if his strikes aren't landing.
Neither of these two offer much on the ground, so I expect a back-and-forth brawl. The advanced striking numbers are actually eerily similar, but Haqparast is more than a decade younger, two inches taller, and will enter with a four-inch reach edge. That's a big deal if this fight is contested entirely on the feet.
Makdessi and Haqparast have combined to be knocked out just three times in 43 professional fights, so there would appear to be a decent chance this fight sees the final bell. That would make Nasrat an easy favorite given his youth and the fact he's fought considerably more frequently than Makdessi in recent years.
This looks like a prime rebound spot from Haqparast. There's a pretty decent chance he's not as good as I originally thought, but it shouldn't take much to get past a 37-year-old who hasn't competed in well over a year. Nasrat will deserve to be sent packing if he falls short here.
UFC PARIS PICK: Haqparast
Middleweight
Alessio Di Chirico (13-6-0) v. Roman Kopylov (8-2-0)
DK Salaries: Di Chirico ($8,200), Kopylov ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Di Chirico (-115), Kopylov (-105)
Odds to Finish: +125
Di Chirico was scheduled to fight Albert Duraev last October before withdrawing and being replaced by Kopylov, who went on to drop a unanimous decision to Duraev.
A loser of four of his past five fights and coming off a 17-second head-kick knockout at the hands of Abdul Razak Alhassan last August, I feel comfortable in saying Di Chirico is fighting for his job here. He's just 3-6 in nine fights with the company, so it's a minor miracle he's lasted as long as he has. This figures to be Di Chirico's final shot.
It will also almost certainly be Kopylov's final shot given he has lost to Duraev and Karl Roberson in his first two bouts with the company. The Roberson defeat looks especially bad considering Karl has lost four straight since defeating Kopylov.
Di Chirico has always had sneaky stopping power, but he's never been able to get to it consistently enough. He's the better wrestler of the two, which gives Di Chirico a higher floor from both a DK and real life perspective, but I'd be lying if I thought I could say with any confidence whatsoever what will happen in this fight.
When I'm undecided, I take the fighter who provides the better payoff, and in this case, that's Kopylov. Barely.
These two men are considerably more well known than some competing on this card, but I still might avoid it all together. The range of potential outcomes seems massive.
UFC PARIS PICK: Kopylov
Other Bouts
Featherweight
William Gomis (10-2-0) v. Jarno Errens (13-3-1)
DK Salaries: Gomis ($8,600), Errens ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Gomis (-215), Errens (+185)
Odds to Finish: -145
UFC PARIS PICK: Gomis
Featherweight
Charles Jourdain (13-5-1) v. Nathaniel Wood (18-5-0)
DK Salaries: Jourdain ($8,400), Wood ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Jourdain (-135), Wood (+115)
Odds to Finish: -115
UFC PARIS PICK: Wood
Middleweight
Abusupiyan Magomedov (24-4-1) v. Dustin Stoltzfus (14-4-0)
DK Salaries: Magomedov ($8,900), Stoltzfus ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Magomedov (-285), Stoltzfus (+215)
Odds to Finish: -150
UFC PARIS PICK: Magomedov
Lightweight
Fares Ziam (12-4-0) v. Michal Figlak (8-0-0)
DK Salaries: Ziam ($7,700), Figlak ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Ziam (+165), Figlak (-195)
Odds to Finish: +250
UFC PARIS PICK: Figlak
Middleweight
Nassourdine Imavov (11-3-0) v. Joaquin Buckley (15-4-0)
DK Salaries: Imavov ($9,000), Buckley ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Imavov (-255), Buckley (+215)
Odds to Finish: -190
UFC PARIS PICK: Imavov
Lightweight
Benoit Saint-Denis (9-1-0, 1NC) v. Gabriel Miranda (16-5-0)
DK Salaries: Saint Denis ($9,100), Miranda ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Saint Denis (-265), Miranda (+225)
Odds to Finish: -240
UFC PARIS PICK: Saint Denis
Bantamweight
Khalid Taha (13-4-0, 1NC) v. Cristian Quinonez (17-3-0)
DK Salaries: Taha ($8,300), Quinonez ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Taha (-125), Quinonez (+105)
Odds to Finish: +125
UFC PARIS PICK: Quinonez
Women's Featherweight
Stephanie Egger (7-3-0) v. Ailin Perez (7-1-0)
DK Salaries: Egger ($9,300), Perez ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Egger (-285), Perez (+240)
Odds to Finish: -140
UFC PARIS PICK: Egger
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC 278 with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
