This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
As the UFC looks to find new challengers for welterweight champion Kamaru Usman, a pair of top 170-pounders will rematch in Saturday's main event, which will help determine the pecking order for the next title shot.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $400k MMA Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring is distributed as follows:
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
Main Event - Welterweight
Vicente Luque (21-7-1) v. Belal Muhammad (20-3-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Luque ($8,500), Muhammad ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Luque (-170), Muhammad (+150)
Odds to Finish: -150
This will be a rematch of a fight which took place at UFC 205 in November 2016 -- a bout in which Luque won via knockout in 79 seconds.
Vicente has been on a roll for quite some time. He's won four in a row and 10 of his past 11 dating back to October 2017. It's impossible to argue with the record, but a deeper dive into the numbers reveals cause for concern regarding Luque. For starters, he's primarily a stand-up brawler despite the fact he has eight submission victories in his career, including his last two fights. Most every Luque fight starts off as a brawl and evolves from there. Vicente lands 5.65 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 5.67 per minute. Both are astronomically high numbers and serve as some sort of proof as to why Luque has struggled to defeat better competition over the course of his career. He has one style of fighting and lets the chips fall where they may.
Muhammad has been just as good since the first meeting between the two, posting a 10-1 (1NC) record in a dozen bouts. Belal in unbeaten in his past seven, and is fresh off back-to-back unanimous decisions wins over Stephen Thompson and Demian Maia. A win over those two gentlemen doesn't mean as much these days as it did in the past, but Thompson is a pure kickboxer while Maia is a mat specialist, and Muhammad handled both, which is a positive sign.
Both men are fairly big for the division at 5-foot-11, while Luque enters with a three-inch reach edge. He's going to have the edge in a wild slugfest, and Muhammad -- who averages 2.2 takedowns per 15 minutes -- would be wise to try to implement his wrestling game in order to limit Luque's opportunities on the feet.
There is a legitimate chance Muhammad is overwhelmed on the feet if Luque starts quickly, but Belal has enough of an edge in terms of secondary skills that I'm willing to roll the dice on him as such as significant underdog. I think Muhammad's wrestling game could make the difference if he is able to survive the early portion of the fight.
Regardless of your pick, I would certainly get a piece of this fight in your DK lineup. It seems to be the one bout in which there is guaranteed to be plenty of offense landed, and as you will soon see, that is not the case for much of this card.
THE PICK: Muhammad
Light Heavyweight
Devin Clark (12-6-0) v. William Knight (11-3-0)
DK Salaries: Clark ($8,600), Knight ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Clark (-170), Knight (+150)
Odds to Finish: +100
A loser of each of his past two fights, Clark is likely fighting for his job on Saturday. The South Dakota native is sporting a .500 (6-6) record in his first dozen UFC bouts, although it's important to note Clark has been inside the Octagon with some of the best the division has to offer. After all, half of his defeats with the company have come against Jan Blachowicz, Aleksandar Rakic and Anthony Smith. Clark's biggest issue is the lack of stopping power in his hands. He doesn't have a single knockout victory during his time with the UFC, and it's virtually impossible to win in a higher weight class if you can't consistently threaten your opposition in the stand-up.
A product of Dana White's Contender Series, Knight has gone on to pick up victories in three of his first five UFC bouts, which is quite impressive considering how little was expected of him upon his arrival in the company. The direct opposite of Clark, Knight has proven to be an all-or-nothing knockout artist. His durability has proven to be quite strong for a fighter who prefers to stand and bang, but Knight lacks the secondary skills to defeat better opposition. It also must be noted that Knight is coming off a fight against Maxim Grishin this past February in which he not only lost via unanimous decision, but missed weight by a dozen pounds -- the largest weight miss in company history. It certainly bears watching how Clark looks on the scale on Friday.
The breakdown of this fight is pretty straightforward. Knight is going to be uber-aggressive in search of a finish -- he knows no other way to fight -- and Clark, who averages 2.51 takedowns per 15 minutes, will likely try to grapple his way to a win. Knight averages more than two takedowns (2.22) per 15 minutes himself, but his takedown defense is a paltry 45 percent.
I think there's a real chance Knight spends a good chunk of this fight on his back. Clark is the better athlete and better pure wrestler, although Knight's power is legitimate, and thus I don't hate the idea of using him as a punt DK play to fill out a lineup.
THE PICK: Clark
Featherweight
Pat Sabatini (16-3-0) v. TJ. Laramie (12-4-0)
DK Salaries: Sabatini ($9,200), Laramie ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Sabatini (-450), Laramie (+340)
Odds to Finish: -105
Little was thought of Sabatini when he made his UFC debut almost exactly a year ago, but he ended winning each of his first three bouts with the company (two unanimous decisions, one submission) in a seven-month span. The competition level Sabatini was facing wasn't the best (Tucker Lutz, Jamall Emmers, Tristan Connelly), but Sabatini has displayed a solid wrestling base in addition to quality submission skills. There doesn't appear to be a ton here in terms of ceiling, but Pat looks like a high-floor option who should be able to handle other fringe-roster fighters.
Laramie earned his UFC opportunity with a knockout victory on Dana White's Contender Series back in August 2020. He made his official company debut about a month later and was choked out by Darrick Minner in 52 seconds. Laramie was up and down on the Canadian regional circuit prior to his arrival and his upside appears to be quite limited. There is theoretically room for improvement here because T.J. won't turn 25 years of age until October, but he may not get another opportunity with the company if he puts forth another lousy performance on Saturday.
Both of these men offer stunningly little on the feet. It's extremely rare to see a bout between two fighters in which neither competitor averages even three significant strikes landed per minute. Virtually all of their offense is centered around their respective wrestling games. The man who can land a handful of consistent takedowns seems like the one who will walk away victorious here.
Sabatini is a very easy pick here considering what we have seen from each man thus far, but his salary is outrageous and he doesn't exactly possess a "fantasy friendly" skill set. I'd look else where in terms of filling out your lineup, but that can be said about a lot of fights on this card.
THE PICK: Sabatini
Women's Bantamweight
Lina Lansberg (10-5-0) v. Pannie Kianzad (16-6-0)
DK Salaries: Lansberg ($7,100), Kianzad ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Lansberg (+310), Kianzad (-410)
Odds to Finish: +225
A former professional kickboxer with nearly 50 bouts under her belt, time is running out on Lansberg, who turned 40 years of age this past March. For a fighter known for her stand-up skills, Lansberg has yet to earn a stoppage victory in her first eight UFC bouts (4-4). She's beaten up on lesser competition and struggled when facing better opponents. Kianzad probably falls more in the former category than the latter, but we haven't seen anything from Lina thus far to lead me to believe there is any sort of sustained winning streak forthcoming.
Kianzad was widely viewed as roster depth upon her arrival in the company in July 2019, but she somehow ran off a recent four-fight winning streak before dropping a unanimous decision to Raquel Pennington last September. There was little doubt the streak would come to an end sooner or later considering all four of those victories came via decision, but Kianzad could walk away tomorrow and her run with the company would have to be considered a success.
These two women are the same exact size, with Kianzad having a one-inch reach edge, and more importantly, being nearly a decade younger. Pannie tends to be considerably more active on the feet, which is surprising considering Lansberg's lack of secondary offensive skills.
This is not a deep card and DK owners will have to make their stand somewhere -- have I mentioned that already? This may not be the place, however. The only guarantee here seems to be that this fight will see the final bell. Neither fighter is a high-volume offensive option, essentially eliminating any potential value.
My guess is that Lansberg keeps this fight a tad more competitive than both the DK Salaries and Vegas odds would lead you to believe, but Kianzad still manages to take a decision.
THE PICK: Kianzad
Other Bouts
Middleweight
Caio Borralho (10-1-0, 1NC) v. Gadzhi Omargadzhiev (13-0-0)
DK Salaries: Borralho ($7,800), Omargadzhiev ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Borralho (+115), Omargadzhiev (-135)
Odds to Finish: -200
THE PICK: Omargadzhiev
Welterweight
Miguel Baeza (10-2-0) v. Andre Fialho (14-4-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Baeza ($8,700), Fialho ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Baeza (-180), Fialho (+155)
Odds to Finish: -190
THE PICK: Baeza
Women's Bantamweight
Mayra Bueno Silva (7-2-1) v. Wu Yanan (12-4-0)
DK Salaries: Silva ($9,300), Wu ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Silva (-450), Wu (+350)
Odds to Finish: +120
THE PICK: Silva
Lightweight
Drakkar Klose (11-2-1) v. Brandon Jenkins (15-8-0)
DK Salaries: Klose ($9,400), Jenkins ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Klose (-650), Jenkins (+460)
Odds to Finish: -165
THE PICK: Klose
Lightweight
Rafa Garcia (13-2-0) v. Jesse Ronson (21-10-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Garcia ($8,200), Ronson ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Garcia (-115), Ronson (-105)
Odds to Finish: +110
THE PICK: Ronson
Heavyweight
Chris Barnett (22-7-0) v. Martin Buday (9-1-0)
DK Salaries: Barnett ($7,200), Buday ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Barnett (+195), Buday (-240)
Odds to Finish: -650
THE PICK: Buday
Lightweight
Jordan Leavitt (9-1-0) v. Trey Ogden (15-4-0)
DK Salaries: Leavitt ($7,900), Ogden ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Leavitt (+110), Ogden (-130)
Odds to Finish: -150
THE PICK: Leavitt
Women's Strawweight
Istela Nunes (6-2-0, 1NC) v. Sam Hughes (5-4-0)
DK Salaries: Nunes ($8,900), Hughes ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Nunes (-220), Hughes (+180)
Odds to Finish: +180
THE PICK: Nunes
Bantamweight
Heili Alateng (14-8-2) v. Kevin Croom (21-14-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Alateng ($8,800), Croom ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Alateng (-180), Croom (+155)
Odds to Finish: +110
THE PICK: Alateng
