This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 74 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Maxim Grishin (32-9-2) v. Philipe Lins (16-5-0)
Philipe Lins - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 78" - Orthodox
~ Medium volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 13 finishes in 16 wins
Maxim Grishin - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ Medium volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 22 finishes in 32 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect this to be a tightly-contested fight, with it coming down to the cardio of Lins. Lins has turned a corner over his previous two fights, and bringing that same energy should undoubtedly get him another. Grishin likely will look to fight defensively, keeping the striking at range and clinching to tire Lins out. A decision will likely go to Grishin, but I will side with Lins to score another early knockout.
UFC Vegas 74 Pick: Lins
Luan Lacerda (12-2-0) v. Da'Mon Blackshear (12-5-1)
Da'Mon Blackshear - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" - Switch
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
Luan Lacerda - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect this to feature more grappling than anything else, as both are high-level grapplers. Either could wind up with a submission in a scramble, but I give Lacerda a massive advantage training with the legendary Andre Pederneiras.
UFC Vegas 74 Pick: Lacerda
Jinh Yu Frey (11-8-0) v. Elise Reed (6-3-0)
Elise Reed - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 63" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 2 finishes in 6 wins
Jinh Yu Frey - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 65" – Southpaw
~ Medium volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: This low-level fight should feature a healthy share of wrestling. I think Frey's age is catching up, and cardio is slipping because of it. Reed should get the better of most exchanges and win a decision.
UFC Vegas 74 Pick: Reed
Daniel Santos (10-2-0) v. Johnny Munoz Jr. (12-2-0)
Daniel Santos - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 67" - Orthodox
~ Medium volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 11 wins
Johnny Munoz - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Medium volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: This could be a tightly-contested match if both guys can succeed on the mat. That said, I expect Santos to have the edge virtually everywhere and to finish this early. As one of the higher-priced fighters, he will need an early finish to hit value.
UFC Vegas 74 Pick: Santos
Andrei Arlovski (34-21-0) v. Don'Tale Mayes (9-5-0)
Andrei Arlovski - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 77" - Orthodox
~ Medium volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 20 finishes in 34 wins
Don'Tale Mayes - Height: 6'6" - Reach: 81" – Orthodox
~ Medium volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: I do not expect much to come out of this fight. Neither guy throws a ton of volume, and Arlovski has a more defensive fighting style nowadays. Mayes likes to throw power shots, but Arlovski has a solid chin and has yet to be knocked out since 2019. Look for a close low scoring decision.
UFC Vegas 74 Pick: Arlovski
John Castaneda (19-6-0) v. Muin Gafurov (18-4-0)
John Castaneda - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 71" - Switch
~ Medium volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 19 wins
Muin Gafurov - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Southpaw
~ Medium volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 18 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect this fight to see something other than the scorecards. Casteneda is a proven fighter sitting at 2-2 in the UFC with a solid all-around game. Gafurov is making his UFC debut, and assuming he avoids debut jitters; I expect him to have an advantage anywhere the fight goes.
UFC Vegas 74 Pick: Gafurov
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (23-7-0) v. Abubakar Nurmagomedov (17-3-1)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ Medium volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 17 wins
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Medium volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 23 wins
DFS Perspective: While Dos Santos's latest win was a striking clinic, he will find it much more challenging to strike in this one. Over his last two fights, Nurmagomedov has over 12 minutes of control time, and I expect him to come in with that same game plan and control his way to another victory. He would undoubtedly record an excellent score with any win.
UFC Vegas 74 Pick: Nurmagomedov
Jamie Mullarkey (16-5-0) v. Muhammadjon Naimov (8-2-0)
Jamie Mullarkey - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" - Orthodox
~ Medium volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 16 wins
Muhammadjon Naimov - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Medium volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Naimov is making a very short-notice debut. Without a chance knockout, I expect Mullarkey to have his way with him and make quick work of this fight. Mullarkey will likely be the highest-owned fighter in every contest due to his dog pricing from before his original opponent withdrew.
UFC Vegas 74 Pick: Mullarkey
Tim Elliott (18-12-1) v. Victor Altamirano (12-2-0)
Tim Elliott - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 66" - Southpaw
~ Medium volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 18 wins
Victor Altamirano - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Elliott is a gatekeeper of the division, and this will really give us an idea of where Altamirano is at. Elliot will continually be looking to chain wrestle and control on the mat. Altamirano can wrestle himself, but his striking will make the difference in this one. Elliott has not been knocked out since 2009 but has been submitted several times as he tends to gas after attempting so many takedowns. Look for Altamirano to prove he is ready for the next test and navigate to a win in this one.
UFC Vegas 74 Pick: Altamirano
Alex Caceres (20-13-0) v. Daniel Pineda (28-14-0)
Alex Caceres - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" - Southpaw
~ Medium volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 20 wins
Daniel Pineda - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Medium volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 28 finishes in 28 wins
DFS Perspective: This is one of the more intriguing fights on the card for me. Caceres has won 6 of his last 7 UFC fights and seems to improve with each passing fight. His one loss was a split decision that could have easily gone his way. Pineda was on a downward spiral until his most recent fight, when he found an impressive second-round submission.
UFC Vegas 74 Pick: Caceres
Kai Kara-France (24-10-0) v. Amir Albazi (16-1-0)
Kai Kara-France - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ Medium volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 14 finishes in 24 wins
Amir Albazi - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Medium volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a big step up in competition for Albazi, and while he will have a considerable edge on the mat, he will find it challenging to get it there. Kara-France has elite takedown defense and will have the edge on the feet. I expect Kara-France to keep this on the feet and eventually knock out a gassed Albazi in the championship rounds.
UFC Vegas 74 Pick: Kara-France
For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our UFC Vegas 74 DraftKings preview, or test your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
