This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC heads to San Antonio, Texas on Saturday, March 25 for UFC San Antonio. In the main event, a banger of a bantamweight fight goes down, as Marlon Vera takes on Cory Sandhagen.
Below, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Featherweight
Steven Peterson (19-10) vs. Lucas Alexander (7-3)
Steven Peterson is ending his layoff after not fighting for over a year after he lost a split decision to Julian Erosa. Peterson is an all-action fighter who was known for his grappling earlier in his career. Since going to the UFC, however, he has become a brawler with a great chin and is fine to give one to take one.
I am surprised he is getting matched up with Alexander. Peterson's last two losses were controversial decisions to Erosa and Alex Caceres. Alexander, meanwhile, is 0-1 in the UFC and was submitted by Joanderson Brito in the first round.
I do expect Alexander to come out more aggressive in this fight and show more skills than he did in his debut. But, I expect Peterson to keep it standing and land the better shots to just out-volume Alexander and either get a late stoppage or a clear-cut decision. I personally lined Peterson at -210, so to get -165 makes it a play here.
UFC San Antonio Best Bet: Steven Peterson (-165)
Weight Class: Women's Bantamweight
Tamires Vidal (7-1) vs. Hailey Cowan (7-2)
Tamires Vidal opened as a -155 favorite (which I thought was where it should have been), but money has come in on Cowan, and now Vidal is the betting underdog. I don't understand why.
Cowan was supposed to fight on Feb. 25, but she had an issue on weigh-in day and pulled out of the fight. She is now making a quick turnaround to face Vidal, who looked impressive in her debut, knocking out Ramona Pascual in the first round.
Vidal needs to keep this fight standing in order to win, and I do think the Brazilian can keep it on the feet. When on the feet, she is miles better than Cowan. Vidal has a ton of power, and I do think her volume will eventually wear on Cowan. Look for her to either get a late stoppage or a decision by just picking Cowan apart.
UFC San Antonio Best Bet: Tamires Vidal (+105)
Weight Class: Bantamweight
Cory Sandhagen (15-4) vs. Marlon Vera (22-7-1)
I like Cory Sandhagen to get his hand raised in the main event, but I don't want to lay -170, so I'll take a prop on Sandhagen winning a decision at +100.
Although Vera is on a nice winning streak, the Rob Font-Vera fight is why I like Sandhagen here. Font was winning every round for the first four minutes, as he was just piecing up Vera, but in the final minute, Vera would connect and drop Font. He eventually won the fight due to the damage.
Yet, Sandhagen is more elusive than Font and has proven he has a better chin. The way the first four minutes of the rounds in the Font fight were going is how I expect this entire fight to play out. Sandhagen will be too hard to hit, and his speed and angles will be tough for Vera to land.
Vera is as durable as they come, so I don't think Sandhagen will be able to finish him, which is why I like Sandhagen by decision here.
UFC San Antonio Best Bet: Cory Sandhagen by decision (+100)
Weight Classes: Flyweight & Women's Flyweight
C.J. Vergara (10-4-1) vs. Daniel Lacerda (11-4)
Maycee Barber (11-2) vs. Andrea Lee (13-6)
For my parlay, I'm taking C.J. Vergara to beat Daniel Lacerda and Maycee Barber to get her hand raised against Andrea Lee.
Vergara is 1-2 in the UFC, but his losses came to Tatsuro Taira -- a top prospect who seems destined to be top-five in the future -- and Ode Osburne (in his debut). However, he gets a favorable matchup here in Lacerda, who has about one round of cardio and gasses badly in his fights.
The first round will be tough, as Lacerda can catch Vergara and possibly finish him, but I do think Vergara's chin is good enough to be able to keep it standing. After the first round, I expect Vergara to up the pace and really start pouring it on Lacerda, ultimately getting the second-round TKO win.
The other leg is on the main card, as I like Barber to get past Lee. After Barber lost to Roxanne Modafferi and Alexa Grasso (which is a great loss now), many people wrote her off, but she has rebounded nicely.
The way Barber wins fights is by bullying her opponents against the fence and using the clinch, as she did against Jessica Eye and Montana De La Rosa. Lee is the better kickboxer, but the way to beat her is by wrestling and clinching her, which is what I expect Barber to do.
Barber has proven she has the cardio to do that for three rounds, so I expect her to just bully Lee to win a clear-cut decision.
UFC San Antonio Best Bet: C.J. Vergara & Maycee Barber parlay (-108)
UFC San Antonio Best Bets:
Here is a recap of my best bets for this weekend's UFC San Antonio event:
- Steven Peterson (-165)
- Tamires Vidal (+105)
- Cory Sandhagen by decision (+100)
- C.J. Vergara & Maycee Barber parlay (-108)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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