This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC is in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on Saturday, May 4 for UFC 301. In the main event, the flyweight title is up for grabs, as Alexandre Pantoja looks to defend his belt against Steve Erceg.
Below, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Lightweight
Drakkar Klose (14-2-1) vs. Joaquim Silva (13-4)
Drakkar Klose is going to Brazil to fight the Brazilian Joaquim Silva, but I love this spot for Klose to get his hand raised.
Klose is a borderline top-15 fighter, as he has beaten some top-15 lightweights, while Silva is a major step down in competition. Klose is very durable and is a well-rounded fighter, as he can keep the fight standing and wrestle when he needs to.
Klose should be able to keep this one standing and land the better shots. I expect him to piece up Silva, who has a negative striking differential, as he absorbs 4.51 significant strikes per minute while landing just 3.61.
The American should be above -225 in my opinion, so to get him under -200 makes this a play.
UFC 301 Best Bet: Drakkar Klose (-185)
Weight Class: Featherweight
William Gomis (13-2) vs. Jean Silva (12-2)
William Gomis has been getting plenty of action, as he was around +140 and is now down to +105 against Jean Silva, but, I believe Gomis should be favored in this spot.
Gomis is 3-0 in the UFC and isn't the most exciting fighter, but he knows how to win rounds and edge out close decisions. Silva knocked out Westin Wilson in his debut, but Wilson isn't UFC-caliber, so that win isn't impressive.
On the feet, Gomis is hard to hit, as he is a super technical striker. As long as he doesn't get caught by Silva's power, I expect him to be able to win a decision.
UFC 301 Best Bet: William Gomis (+105)
Weight Class: Flyweight
Alexandre Pantoja (27-5) vs. Steve Erceg (12-1)
In the main event of UFC 301, Pantoja puts his flyweight title on the line against Steve Erceg.
In this matchup, I lean towards Pantoja getting his hand raised, but for the prop, I like the fight to go over 3.5 rounds at -145.
Erceg's path to victory is to likely KO Pantoja, however, the champ is extremely durable, as he has never been finished in his career. The Brazilian should be able to avoid getting KO'd, but he also isn't much of a finisher himself.
In Pantoja's last two title fights, both went all five rounds. I worry about Erceg's cardio in five rounds, so instead of it going the distance, the over 3.5 rounds is a great spot in the main event.
UFC 301 Best Bet: Alexandre Pantoja-Steve Erceg over 3.5 rounds (-145)
Weight Classes: Lightweight & Strawweight
Mauricio Ruffy (9-1) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (17-7)
Iasmin Lucindo (15-5) vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (16-7)
For my parlay, I'm taking Mauricio Ruffy and Iasmin Lucindo to get their hands raised at UFC 301.
Ruffy is making his UFC debut and taking on Jamie Mullarkey, who is going into enemy territory. Ruffy is a good striker with KO power, which has been the problem of Mullarkey, who has struggled as of late. Mullarkey is coming off a first-round knockout loss to Nasrat Haqparast, who isn't known for his KO power.
Ruffy should be able to land heavy shots and get a TKO win, as Mullarkey has been knocked out in his last three losses.
To close out the parlay, I'm backing Iasmin Lucindo to defeat Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Although Kowalkiewicz is on a four-fight winning streak, the level of competition hasn't been the highest. Lucindo, meanwhile, is a solid wrestler who should be able to out-grapple Kowalkiewicz. Karolina is also there to be hit, as she absorbs 5.55 significant strikes per minute.
Lucindo's strength and wrestling will be the difference here in her getting a decision win.
UFC 301 Best Bet: Mauricio Ruffy & Iasmin Lucindo (-115)
UFC 301 Best Bets
Here is a recap of this weekend's UFC 301 best bets:
- Drakkar Klose (-185)
- William Gomis (+105)
- Alexandre Pantoja-Steve Erceg over 3.5 rounds (-145)
- Mauricio Ruffy & Iasmin Lucindo parlay (-115)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
North Carolina sports betting launched March 11 with a wide variety of online sportsbooks. Some of our favorite North Carolina sportsbook promos include the Caesars North Carolina promo code and the Fanatics Sportsbook North Carolina promo code.
If you prefer to deposit at a sportsbook via PayPal, RotoWire has an up-to-date list of all the top-rated PayPal betting sites in one place. We also list all major sportsbooks accepting credit card.
