Top DFS Picks and Betting Strategies for UFC 319
The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 319 card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
2025 Overall Picks: 234-86-1 ~ Dog Picks 36-23-1
Drake's Bet of the Week: Lerone Murphy +150
Bet of the Week Record: 18-8-1 +1888
DFS Lock of the Week: Michal Oleksiejczuk - 20-5
Fanduel Captain: Oleksiejczuk/Main Event
Dricus Du Plessis (23-2-0) v. Khamzat Chimaev (14-0-0)
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 23 wins (9 KO/TKO, 11 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Relentless pressure fighter with awkward but effective striking
- Strong grappler with the cardio to push hard for five rounds
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14 wins (6 KO/TKO, 6 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Elite wrestler with smothering top control and brutal ground-and-pound
- Extremely dangerous in the first round with relentless pace
DFS Perspective: Most will side with Chimaev, and his early submission threat is very real. But Du Plessis is battle-tested, durable, and has the skill set to make this interesting. If he survives the early storm and stays out of a choke, his pressure and pace can take over. Both fighters have cases for DFS, and I expect both to be heavily rostered.
UFC 319 Pick: Du Plessis
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Lerone Murphy (16-0-1) v. Aaron Pico (13-4-0)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16 wins (7 KO/TKO, 9 decisions)
- Well-rounded striker with sharp counters and solid takedown defense
- Composed under pressure and proven against top UFC competition
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13 wins (9 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Explosive wrestler with heavy hands and strong finishing instincts
- Can be reckless when chasing the finish and has been caught before
DFS Perspective: Pico is a talented newcomer to the UFC, but Murphy has been tested against high-level opposition and brings a balanced game that can win minutes and rounds. If he defends the early takedowns, Murphy's striking and pace should carry him to victory. He's a solid play in all formats with GPP upside.
UFC 319 Pick: Murphy
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Geoff Neal (16-6-0) v. Carlos Prates (21-7-0)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 16 wins (10 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Technical power striker with dangerous counter-punching
- Can struggle with output when pressured and forced to lead
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 21 wins (16 KO/TKO, 3 submission, 2 decisions)
- Long, accurate striker with excellent use of range and timing
- Can be a slow starter but builds momentum as the fight goes on
DFS Perspective: Neal's power is always a factor, especially early, but if Prates avoids big counters in the first round, his volume and range should take over. This is likely competitive, but I expect Prates to return to form and edge it out. It's another fight in which both fighters have a case for a solid DFS play.
UFC 319 Pick: Prates
Jared Cannonier (18-8-0) v. Michael Page (23-3-0)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 18 wins (10 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Powerful striker with heavy kicks and strong forward pressure
- Durable and experienced against elite competition
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 79" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 23 wins (12 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 7 decisions)
- Unorthodox counter striker with slick movement and range control
- Struggles when forced into brawls or backed to the fence
DFS Perspective: If Cannonier sits back, Page can slow this into a low-volume fight. But I expect Cannonier to pressure, work his way inside, and make Page uncomfortable. Cannonier is the better DFS target with knockout potential, while Page is a low-output GPP dart if you think he can keep it clean and pick his shots from range.
UFC 319 Pick: Cannonier
Tim Elliott (20-13-1) v. Kai Asakura (21-5-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 20 wins (3 KO/TKO, 7 submissions, 10 decisions)
- High-paced scrambler with awkward striking and constant movement
- Can be hittable and gives up position chasing unorthodox attacks
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 21 wins (13 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Skilled striker with sharp combinations and finishing instincts
- Solid defensive grappling and comfortable in extended exchanges
DFS Perspective: Asakura should be the cleaner fighter in all areas, especially on the feet. If he keeps this standing, he can pick Elliott apart and potentially score a knockout. Elliott's pace could create scrambles, but Asakura's composure and striking advantage make him the preferred play in all formats.
UFC 319 Pick: Asakura
King Green (32-17-1) v. Diego Ferreira (19-6-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 32 wins (11 KO/TKO, 9 submissions, 12 decisions)
- Slick boxer with great head movement and high output
- Lacks finishing power at the elite level and can be out grappled
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 19 wins (5 KO/TKO, 7 submissions, 7 decisions)
- Well-rounded with dangerous grappling and strong top control
- Solid boxing fundamentals with good pressure and cardio
DFS Perspective: Green's speed and boxing make him dangerous in striking exchanges, but Ferreira's pressure and grappling should be the difference. If Ferreira forces clinches and works to the mat, he can rack up control time and hunt for submissions. He's a strong all-format play with a path to a finish or dominant decision.
UFC 319 Pick: Ferreira
Gerald Meerschaert (37-19-0) v. Michal Oleksiejczuk (20-9-0)
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 37 wins (6 KO/TKO, 29 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Veteran grappler with slick submission setups
- Slow starter with a vulnerable chin against power punchers
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 20 wins (15 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 4 decisions)
- Fast starter with heavy hands and body shot power
- Aggressive style built to overwhelm opponents early
DFS Perspective: This is a strong spot for Oleksiejczuk to score an early knockout. Meerschaert is dangerous if he survives and drags it to the mat, but his tendency to get hurt early makes this a risky fight for him. Oleksiejczuk is an excellent GPP and cash-game target with Round 1 finish upside. Meerschaert is submission-or-bust.
UFC 319 Pick: Oleksiejczuk
Jessica Andrade (26-14-0) v. Lupita Godinez (13-5-0)
- Height: 5'1" – Reach: 62" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 26 wins (10 KO/TKO, 8 submissions, 8 decisions)
- Powerful striker with aggressive forward pressure
- Can be taken down and controlled by strong grapplers
- Height: 5'2" – Reach: 61" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13 wins (0 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 10 decisions)
- Tenacious wrestler with strong control and pace
- Durable with improved striking to complement her grappling
DFS Perspective: Andrade's power is always a threat, but Godinez's wrestling and control should be the difference here. If she avoids big shots early, she can dictate the fight with takedowns and pressure. Godinez is a strong all-format play with a safe floor and solid upside through control time.
UFC 319 Pick: Godinez
Alexander Hernandez (16-8-0) v. Chase Hooper (16-3-1)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16 wins (6 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 8 decisions)
- Explosive early with sharp boxing and speed
- Fades in longer fights and struggles against strong grapplers
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 16 wins (4 KO/TKO, 8 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Creative grappler with slick back takes and constant pressure
- Improving striking and cardio to complement his ground game
DFS Perspective: Hooper should dominate if this hits the mat. Hernandez is dangerous early, but his defensive grappling has been a liability, and Hooper's relentless attacks should find a finish. He's a strong GPP and cash play with submission upside, especially in the first half of the fight.
UFC 319 Pick: Hooper
Edson Barboza (24-12-0) v. Drakkar Klose (15-3-1)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 24 wins (13 KO/TKO, 2 submission, 9 decisions)
- Devastating kicker with fight-changing power
- Experienced striker with strong countering ability
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15 wins (6 KO/TKO, 9 decisions)
- Pressure fighter with solid boxing and clinch work
- Lacks finishing power and can be outworked at range
DFS Perspective: Klose will look to pressure and make this a grinding fight, but Barboza's kicks and power should be the difference. If he keeps space, he can land big shots and pile up damage. The veteran is a strong GPP play with knockout upside.
UFC 319 Pick: Barboza
Nursulton Ruziboev (36-9-2) v. Bryan Battle (12-2-0)
- Height: 6'5" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 36 wins (13 KO/TKO, 20 submissions, 3 decision)
- Explosive finisher with dangerous striking and submissions
- Aggressive early but can be reckless in exchanges
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12 wins (4 KO/TKO, 5 submissions, 3 decision)
- Well-rounded fighter with improving striking and sneaky power
- Durable with the cardio to push a hard pace
DFS Perspective: Ruziboev is a proven finisher and can end the fight in the first few minutes if he lands clean. Battle is durable and dangerous himself, especially if the fight gets extended. Ruziboev is boom-or-bust with early KO or submission potential, while Battle is the better late-fight DFS scorer if he survives the early storm.
UFC 319 Pick: Battle
Karine Silva (18-5-0) v. Dione Barbosa (8-3-0)
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 18 wins (8 KO/TKO, 9 submissions. 1 decision)
- Aggressive finisher with dangerous submissions and heavy hands
- Relentless pace and thrives in chaotic fights
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8 wins (4 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Strong grappler with solid control on the mat
- Limited striking and can be outworked on the feet
DFS Perspective: Silva should dominate wherever this goes. She's the more dangerous striker, the more aggressive grappler, and has multiple paths to a finish. Barbosa will need top control to win, but Silva's pace and skill set make her a strong all-format play with high finishing upside.
UFC 319 Pick: Silva
Alibi Idiris (10-0-0) v. Joseph Morales (12-2-0)
Alibi Idris
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: N/A – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10 wins (5 KO/TKO, 1 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Well-rounded with crisp striking and strong grappling
- Controls range well and mixes levels effectively
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 12 wins (2 KO/TKO, 6 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Skilled grappler with opportunistic submission game
- Can be outworked and struggles against faster strikers
DFS Perspective: Idris should have the advantage everywhere. His pace, striking, and grappling defense should allow him to dictate the fight from start to finish. Despite the UFC experience of Morales, the newcomer is a strong all-format play with both decision and finish upside.
UFC 319 Pick: Idiris
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
