This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC is in Dubai on Saturday, August 3 for UFC Abu Dhabi. In the main event, a pivotal bantamweight bout goes down, as Cory Sandhagen takes on Umar Nurmagomedov.
Below, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Middleweight
Sedriques Dumas (9-2) vs. Denis Tiuliulin (11-9)
Opening up the card is a middleweight bout between Sedriques Dumas and Denis Tiuliulin, and I'm backing Dumas to get the win.
Dumas and Tiuliulin have both struggled in the UFC, but this is a good spot for the former. Tiuliulin is on a three-fight losing streak and is has been finished in all three. His chin is a big weakness, as he gets rocked quite often, while Dumas has legitimate power.
Tiuliulin absorbs 6.15 significant strikes per minute, and that is a clear concern. I like Dumas to land a big shot early and get a TKO win in the first or second round, potentially creating some prop bet opportunities as well.
UFC Abu Dhabi Best Bet: Sedriques Dumas (-218)
Weight Class: Bantamweight
Cory Sandhagen (17-4) vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (17-0)
The main event of UFC Abu Dhabi is a massive bantamweight bout, and I like Cory Sandhagen to get the win, as the odds are way to wide.
Umar Nurmagomedov is a solid undefeated prospect, but this is a massive step up in competition. In his last trip to the Octagon, he gassed in a three-round fight, and now he has to go five rounds. Nurmagomedov could make this fight look easy with his wrestling and controlling Sandhagen on the ground, but his cardio will have to hold up for that plan to work.
Sandhagen, meanwhile, has good footwork and is hard to take down, plus he is a much better striker. To me, this is a much closer fight than the odds suggest, so to get +245 on what I think is closer to a 50-50 fight makes it a must-play. I like Sandhagen to stay upright for enough time and do enough on the feet to edge out a decision.
UFC Abu Dhabi Best Bet: Cory Sandhagen (+245)
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Shamil Gaziev (12-1) vs. Don'Tale Mayes (11-6)
For my prop, I'm taking the under 2.5 rounds in the heavyweight fight between Shamil Gaziev and Don'Tale Mayes.
Gaziev is coming off a loss to Jair Rozenstruik in his second UFC fight, which was a main event. He now gets a massive step down in competition against Mayes. Mayes has has had his fair share of troubles in the UFC, as he struggles on the mat, in addition to his chin being a bit of a concern.
Gaziev is a hard hitter, and I think he can bullrush Mayes and land a big shot early, resulting in a TKO win. Although I think Gaziev by knockout is the way to go, taking the under is also a good spot, just in case Gaziev gasses again and gets finished like he did against Rozenstruik.
UFC Abu Dhabi Best Bet: Shamil Gaziev-Don'Tale Mayes u 2.5 rounds (-160)
Weight Classes: Light heavyweight & Middleweight
Azamat Murzakanov (13-0) vs. Alonzo Menifield (15-4-1)
Shara Magomedov (13-0) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (19-8)
For my parlay at UFC Abu Dhabi, I'm backing Azamat Murzakanov and Shara Magomedov to each get a win.
Murzakanov looks like the real deal and takes on Alonzo Menifield, who is coming off a quick knockout loss to Carlos Ulberg in 12 seconds not even three months ago. I worry about his chin coming back that quickly, and Murzakanov hits hard. Menifield's cardio is also a concern, and Murzakanov's power holds up late, so I like him to get a second or third-round knockout.
To close out the parlay, I like Shara Magomedov to beat Michal Oleksiejczuk in the co-main event. This fight was made on short notice, as both fought on June 22. Oleksiejczuk is borderline UFC-caliber, and the way to beat Magomedov is through wrestling, but the Pole is a striker. On the feet, Magomedov is the much better striker and should be able to land something big to get a TKO win.
UFC Abu Dhabi Best Bet: Azamat Murzakanov & Shara Magomedov parlay (+111)
UFC Abu Dhabi Bets Bets
Here is a recap of this weekend's UFC Abu Dhabi best bets:
- Sedriques Dumas (-218)
- Cory Sandhagen (+245)
- Shamil Gaziev-Don'Tale Mayes under 2.5 rounds (-160))
- Azamat Murzakanov & Shara Magomedov (+111)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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