Top DFS Picks and Betting Strategies for UFC Abu Dhabi
The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Abu Dhabi card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
2025 Overall Picks: 205-79-1 ~ Dog Picks 31-22-1
Drake's Bet of the Week: Bogdan Guskov +160
Bet of the Week Record: 15-8-1 +1373
DFS Lock of the Week: Robert Whittaker - 19-3
Fanduel Captain: Whittaker/Guskov
Robert Whittaker (26-8-0) v. Reinier de Ridder (20-2-0)
Robert Whittaker
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 26 wins (10 KO/TKO, 5 submissions, 11 decisions)
- Clean and technical striker with excellent movement
- Elite takedown defense and cage awareness
Reinier de Ridder
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 20 wins (4 KO/TKO, 14 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Crafty submission specialist with slick back takes
- Lacks striking fluidity and defensive polish
DFS Perspective: This feels like a nightmare matchup for de Ridder. Whittaker's striking is miles ahead, and his takedown defense should keep this standing. Unless de Ridder snatches a quick back take, it's hard to see him winning rounds on the feet. Whittaker could rack up volume over five rounds or find a late finish.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Whittaker
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Petr Yan (18-5-0) v. Marcus McGhee (10-1-0)
Petr Yan
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 18 wins (7 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 10 decisions)
- Technical striker with elite boxing and movement
- Tough, experienced, and rarely outclassed in any area
Marcus McGhee
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 10 wins (8 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 1 decision)
- Explosive finisher with slick striking
- Still relatively untested against top-tier opposition
DFS Perspective: This is a major step up for McGhee, and it's hard to see him being ready for the level Yan brings. Yan should be better everywhere -- sharper striking, better cardio, more experience and the ability to mix in wrestling if needed. I expect him to pull ahead early and control the fight start to finish.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Yan
Shara Magomedov (15-1-0) v. Marc-Andre Barriault (17-9-0)
Shara Magomedov
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 15 wins (12 KO/TKO, 3 decisions)
- Flashy and powerful striker with elite speed
- Strong counter game and dangerous in open space
Marc-Andre Barriault
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17 wins (11 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 5 decisions)
- Durable with solid pressure and output
- Relies on volume and cardio to break opponents down
DFS Perspective: Barriault is tough and won't go away easily, but Magomedov is the far faster and more technical striker. As long as he maintains range and doesn't gas, he should be able to pick Barriault apart over three rounds or find a finish.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Magomedov
Asu Almabayev (21-3-0) v. Jose Ochoa (8-1-0)
Asu Almabayev
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 21 wins (3 KO/TKO, 9 submissions, 9 decisions)
- Strong grappler with excellent positional control
- Relentless pace and chains takedowns effectively
Jose Ochoa
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 8 wins (7 KO/TKO, 1 submissions)
- Short-notice replacement with decent submission offense
- Limited experience against top-tier opposition
DFS Perspective: This is Almabayev's fight to lose. He should dominate on the mat with control time and volume grappling. Ochoa has some finishing skills, but he's outmatched here in just about every department.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Almabaev
Nikita Krylov (30-10-0) v. Bogdan Guskov (17-3-0)
Nikita Krylov
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 30 wins (12 KO/TKO, 16 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Aggressive style with solid wrestling and submission game
- Can be wild at times and leaves openings defensively
Bogdan Guskov
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17 wins (14 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Dangerous power puncher with a kill-or-be-killed style
- Fast starter with huge knockout upside
DFS Perspective: This feels like a strong dog shot to take. Krylov is more experienced and well-rounded, but Guskov has massive power and could absolutely end this early if he lands clean. Krylov's chaotic approach leaves him vulnerable, and Guskov's first-round upside makes him a great GPP target.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Guskov
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Bryce Mitchell (17-3-0) v. Said Nurmagomedov (18-4-0)
Bryce Mitchell
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 17 wins (1 KO/TKO, 9 submissions, 7 decisions)
- Relentless grappler with suffocating top control
- Awkward but effective style that wears opponents down
Said Nurmagomedov
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 18 wins (4 KO/TKO, 6 submissions, 8 decisions)
- Quick and dynamic striker with good kicks
- Struggles when forced to fight off his back
DFS Perspective: Said will need to stay moving and strike from range, but it's hard to see him stuffing takedowns for three rounds. Mitchell has a way of dragging you into his world, and once he's on top, he's a nightmare to deal with. I expect him to grind Said down and eventually lock something up.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Mitchell
Muslim Salikhov (21-5-0) v. Carlos Leal (22-6-0)
Muslim Salikhov
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 21 wins (13 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Technical striker with diverse kicking arsenal
- Slowing down with age but still dangerous early
Carlos Leal
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 22 wins (11 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 7 decisions)
- Pressure-heavy striker with solid physicality
- Tends to build momentum as the fight progresses
DFS Perspective: Salikhov is still dangerous, but he's clearly on the decline. Leal should have the edge in pace, volume and durability, especially as the fight goes on. If he can survive the early kicks, he likely takes over and wins a decision or even finds a late finish.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Leal
Da'Mon Blackshear (17-7-1) v. Davey Grant (14-7-0)
Da'Mon Blackshear
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 17 wins (2 KO/TKO, 11 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Athletic and explosive with slick grappling
- Struggles with pressure and pace over three rounds
Davey Grant
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14 wins (4 KO/TKO, 7 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Wild, unorthodox striker with sneaky power
- Strong submission skills when the fight hits the mat
DFS Perspective: This one should be fireworks early. Grant's power and chaos can catch anyone, but Blackshear's athleticism and grappling give him plenty of paths. That said, Grant has the veteran edge and more fight-changing tools. It will be a close fight, but I'll lean Grant in a scrappy, high-paced affair that could score well for DFS.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Grant
Amanda Ribas (12-6-0) v. Tabatha Ricci (11-3-0)
Amanda Ribas
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12 wins (3 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Well-rounded skill set with solid striking and grappling
- Strong pace and durability across three rounds
Tabatha Ricci
- Height: 5'1" – Reach: 61" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11 wins (1 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 7 decisions)
- Aggressive grappler with strong positional control
- Struggles against longer, more versatile strikers
DFS Perspective: As tough and gritty as Ricci is, this feels like Ribas' fight to control. She's the cleaner striker, more experienced, and likely the better overall grappler. Unless Ricci can dominate with takedowns early, Ribas should pull ahead with volume and pressure.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Ribas
Ibo Aslan (14-2-0) v. Billy Elekana (7-2-0)
Ibo Aslan
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14 wins (14 KO/TKO)
- Explosive power early with aggressive forward pressure
- Prefers to end fights quickly, rarely sees late rounds
Billy Elekana
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 7 wins (3 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 3 decisions)
- Athletic with clean striking and movement
- Still green and untested at this level
DFS Perspective: This should be a fast-paced, high-variance fight. Aslan is kill or be killed, and if he connects early, he likely ends it. Elekana has some tools, but this is a big step up in power and pressure. I'm backing Aslan for the early KO, but he's always a risk to gas if it drags out.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Aslan
Mohammad Yahya (12-5-0) v. Steven Nguyen (9-2-0)
Mohammad Yahya
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 12 wins (7 KO/TKO, 2 submission, 3 decisions)
- Patient striker with decent volume and movement
- Can be too passive at times and struggles off the back foot
Steven Nguyen
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 9 wins (4 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 2 decision)
- Fast hands with sharp boxing fundamentals
- Likes to press forward and create exchanges
DFS Perspective: Nguyen should be the more aggressive and polished fighter here. Yahya is tough but often gets outworked in striking-heavy matchups. Expect Nguyen to set the pace, land the cleaner shots, and win rounds with output.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Nguyen
Martin Buday (15-2-0) v. Marcus Buchecha (5-1-0)
Martin Buday
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15 wins (6 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 6 decisions)
- Strong top control and grinding clinch game
- Very durable and rarely put in danger
Marcus Almeida
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 80" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 5 wins (1 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- World-class BJJ with an elite submission game
- Explosive grappling transitions and finishing instincts
DFS Perspective: Buday is tough and proven, but he's never dealt with someone like Buchecha on the ground. If this hits the mat early, Buchecha could wrap it up in seconds. The striking favors Buday slightly, but the danger is all on the ground. High-ceiling underdog shot with Buchecha.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Almeida
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
