This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC returns after a weekend off, as the Octagon heads to Austin, Texas on Saturday, Dec. 2 for UFC Austin. In the main event, top-15 lightweights collide as Beneil Dariush takes on Arman Tsarukyan.
Below, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Women's flyweight
Jamey-Lyn Horth (6-0) vs. Veronica Hardy (7-4-1)
Opening up UFC Austin is a women's flyweight bout, and I'm backing Jamey-Lyn Horth to remain undefeated as a short favorite here.
Horth looked impressive in her UFC debut, as she beat Hailey Cowan back in April. Although Hardy did pull off a big upset in her last fight, she still is 2-4 in the UFC.
The Canadian in Horth has solid takedown defense and should be able to keep this fight standing. On the feet, Horth throws more volume than Hardy, which will be the difference here in a fight that will likely go the distance.
UFC Austin Best Bet: Jamey-Lyn Horth (-155)
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Weight Class: Lightweight
Beneil Dariush (22-5-1) vs. Arman Tsarukyan (20-3)
The main event of UFC Austin is a great lightweight fight, but to me, the odds are way too high, which is why I'll take a shot on Beneil Darisuh here.
Dariush is now a +245 underdog against Tsarukyan after being favored to beat Charles Oliveira just six months ago. Although Dariush did lose by knockout, he's still 8-1 in his last nine.
The way to beat Dariush throughout his career is by catching him early, but Tsarukyan doesn't have that one-punch KO power. Instead, in a fight that could very well go the distance, I'll take a shot on Dariush, who is super well-rounded and can negate Tsarukyan's grappling. On the feet, the two are pretty equal.
To me, Tsarukyan should be around a -170 favorite, so to get +245 odds on Dariush makes this a play.
UFC Austin Best Bet: Beneil Dariush (+245)
Weight Class: Middleweight
Punahele Soriano (9-3) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (14-5)
Dustin Stoltzfus is 1-4 in the UFC and likely shouldn't be getting another fight, but the company is using him to help build back Punahele Soriano here at UFC Austin.
Soriano has struggled to the tune of a 1-3 record over his last four, but this is a great fight for the Hawaiian to return to form with a knockout win.
Soriano is a solid striker, as he lands 4.04 significant strikes per minute, while Stoltzfus is also there to be hit, and he's coming off a quick KO loss. The Hawaiian will likely come out aggressive and blitz Stoltzfus early to get the knockout win and return to the win column in a big way.
UFC Austin Best Bet: Punahele Soriano by KO/TKO/DQ (-105)
Weight Classes: Featherweight & Lightweight
Melquizael Costa (20-6) vs. Steve Garcia (14-5)
Joaquim Silva (12-4) vs. Clay Guida (38-23)
For my parlay at UFC Austin, I'm backing Melquizael Costa and Joaquim Silva to get their hands raised.
Costa looked phenomenal in his last fight, as he dominated Austin Lingo as he returned to featherweight after losing to Thiago Moises at lightweight in his debut. Garcia, meanwhile, is on a two-fight winning streak.
On the feet, Costa throws a more volume than Garcia, and I worry about his chin. In the UFC, we have seen Garcia get dropped in four of his last five fights, getting knocked down a total of five times during that stretch. Costa should be able to capitalize on the feet and connect with something big.
For the other leg, I like Joaquim Silva to return to the win column against Clay Guida. Silva is coming off a loss to Arman Tsarukyan in a fight he looked good in and hurt Tsarukyan.
Guida, at 41-years-old, is no longer the same fighter he has been. He has slowed down and is there to be hit. Silva should be able to outwork Guida over three rounds to win a clear-cut decision.
UFC Austin Best Bet: Melquizael Costa & Joaquim Silva parlay (-119)
UFC Vegas 82 Best Bets:
Here is a recap of this weekend's UFC 295 best bets:
- Jamey-Lyn Horth (-155)
- Beneil Dariush (+245)
- Punahele Soriano by KO/TKO/DQ (-105)
- Melquizael Costa & Joaquim Silva parlay (-119)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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