Top DFS Picks and Betting Strategies for UFC Paris
The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Paris card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
2025 Overall Picks: 246-98-1 ~ Dog Picks 37-27-1
Drake's Bet of the Week: Rinat Fakhredinov +100
Bet of the Week Record: 19-9-1 +1938
DFS Lock of the Week: Fakhredinov - 22-5
Fanduel Captain: Fakhredinov/Main Event
Nassourdine Imavov (16-4-0) v. Caio Borralho (17-1-0)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15 wins (7 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Technical striker with sharp boxing and counters
- Proven five-round cardio with big-fight experience
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 17 wins (5 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 8 decisions)
- Pressure fighter with a well-rounded skill set
- Undefeated in the UFC with strong grappling and pace
DFS Perspective: This fight is likely to be a close, high-volume affair that goes long. Borralho's wrestling and steady pressure make him a safer play, while Imavov brings knockout upside and the Paris home crowd. Borralho by decision is the lean, but both sides are in play depending on lineup construction.
UFC Paris Pick: Borralho
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Benoit Saint-Denis (14-3-0) v. Mauricio Ruffy (12-1-0)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 14 wins (4 KO/TKO, 9 submissions)
- Relentless pressure fighter with dangerous grappling
- Durability concerns after recent knockout losses
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12 wins (11 KO/TKO, 1 decision)
- Explosive power puncher with sharp boxing
- Aggressive style that thrives in early firefights
DFS Perspective: If Saint-Denis leans on takedowns and grappling, he has a path to win, but his compromised chin makes him hard to trust. Ruffy's power and forward pressure line up perfectly to exploit those defensive gaps. This is a strong GPP target with early finish upside. The pick is Ruffy by knockout, but Saint-Denis remains a sneaky contrarian option if he wrestles early and often.
UFC Paris Pick: Ruffy
Modestas Bukauskas (18-6-0) v. Paul Craig (17-9-1)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 18 wins (10 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Long, rangy striker with sharp kicks and mobility
- Can struggle against heavy grapplers and pressure
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17 wins (4 KO/TKO, 13 submissions)
- Elite submission specialist with dangerous guard game
- Vulnerable on the feet but thrives in scrambles
DFS Perspective: Bukauskas has a clear edge at range with volume and kicks, but Craig only needs one takedown or scramble to snatch a finish. Bukauskas is the safer play if he maintains distance, while Craig is a live underdog with submission upside. This fight is a strong GPP target either way with high finish equity.
UFC Paris Pick: Bukauskas
Bolaji Oki (10-2-0) v. Mason Jones (16-2-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10 wins (5 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 4 decisions)
- Explosive striker with strong finishing instincts
- Aggressive style that can leave him open defensively
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16 wins ( K7O/TKO, 3 submissions, 6 decisions)
- Well-rounded fighter with high-volume striking
- Durable and experienced against tough competition
DFS Perspective: This projects as a fast-paced scrap with plenty of striking exchanges. Oki has big knockout upside but is untested at this level, making him a risk-reward play. Jones brings higher output and a proven chin, giving him a solid floor and potential late finish if Oki fades. Both are viable for GPPs, with Jones the steadier side and Oki the high-ceiling dart throw.
UFC Paris Pick: Jones
Axel Sola (10-0-1) v. Rhys McKee (14-6-1)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 10 wins (5 KO/TKO, 1 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Well-rounded prospect with clean boxing and slick grappling
- Strong cardio and composure, comfortable in extended fights
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11 wins (9 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Long striker with volume and pressure-based offense
- Questionable durability against higher-level competition
DFS Perspective: Sola has the more balanced skill set and can mix in grappling to secure points, while McKee's length and volume make him dangerous if he finds his rhythm. Sola is the safer DFS play with multiple paths to win, but McKee is a live underdog if this stays standing.
UFC Paris Pick: Sola
Patricio Pitbull (37-8-0) v. Losene Keita (16-1-0)
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 37 wins (12 KO/TKO, 12 submissions, 13 decisions)
- Highly experienced former Bellator champ with well-rounded skills
- Dangerous counterpuncher with fight-ending power in both hands
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16 wins (10 KO/TKO, 6 decisions)
- Explosive striker with dynamic combinations and speed
- Rising prospect with finishing instincts and crowd support in Europe
DFS Perspective: Pitbull's experience, power and composure make him a live threat against any prospect, but he's aging and can be outpaced. Keita's speed and aggression give him the edge in striking exchanges, especially if he keeps it standing. Pitbull is the veteran leverage play, but Keita is the preferred DFS side with knockout upside.
UFC Paris Pick: Keita
William Gomis (14-3-0) v. Robert Ruchala (11-1-0)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 14 wins (7 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 6 decisions)
- Long, technical striker with good movement and range control
- Tends to win by decision with low DFS scoring output
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 11 wins (3 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Well-rounded fighter with solid grappling and pressure
- Less experienced at this level, but durable and competitive
DFS Perspective: Gomis has the edge on the feet with his length and composure, and he should be able to pick apart Ruchala at range. The issue is his style rarely racks up DFS points, even in wins, making him a low-priority play. Ruchala is a live underdog if he can force grappling exchanges, but the lean is Gomis by decision in a lower-scoring fight.
UFC Paris Pick: Gomis
Oumar Sy (11-1-0) v. Brendson Ribeiro (17-8-0)
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 83" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11 wins (4 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Explosive light heavyweight prospect with finishing ability everywhere
- Strong athleticism, but still developing against elite competition
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 81" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17 wins (9 KO/TKO, 7 submission, 1 decision)
- Aggressive power puncher with a kill-or-be-killed style
- Defensive lapses leave him vulnerable to counters and takedowns
DFS Perspective: This is one of the best GPP targets on the slate. Both fighters bring big finishing power and a history of quick fights. Ribeiro is live early, but Sy's youth, length and more balanced skill set give him the edge. Expect violence here -- Sy by knockout is the lean, but either side could score huge in DFS.
UFC Paris Pick: Sy
Marcin Tybura (27-9-0) v. Ante Delija (25-6-0)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 27 wins (9 KO/TKO, 8 submissions, 10 decisions)
- Veteran heavyweight with strong clinch work and top control
- Durable grinder who can extend fights and wear opponents down
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 79" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 25 wins (11 KO/TKO, 7 submission, 7 decisions)
- Powerful striker with a history of fast knockouts
- Struggles if forced into long, grinding fights
DFS Perspective: While Delija has the power edge, Tybura's veteran savvy and grappling-heavy style give him a clear path to victory if he survives the early storm. His ability to control tempo and drag opponents deep makes him the preferred DFS side, especially with the potential for takedowns and control time. Delija has quick KO upside, but Tybura by grinding decision or late finish is the lean.
UFC Paris Pick: Tybura
Kaue Fernandes (10-2-0) v. Harry Hardwick (13-3-1)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 10 wins (5 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 3 decision)
- Grappling-heavy fighter with slick submission skills
- Can be hittable and slows down if forced into extended striking
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13 wins (3 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 6 decisions)
- Durable fighter with high pace and solid cardio
- Taking this fight on short notice, limited prep time
DFS Perspective: Fernandes has the skill set to finish if he gets Hardwick to the mat, but cardio and striking defense are concerns. Hardwick's durability and pace make him an intriguing short-notice underdog with the ability to drag this late. Fernandes is the better finisher, but Hardwick could be a sneaky value play if this turns into a grind.
UFC Paris Pick: Hardwick
Sam Patterson (13-2-1) v. Trey Waters (9-1-0)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13 wins (5 KO/TKO, 7 submissions, 1 decisions)
- Tall, rangy lightweight with opportunistic submission skills
- Striking defense is shaky, leaving him vulnerable to big shots
- Height: 6'5" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 9 wins (3 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Long, composed striker with solid boxing fundamentals
- Uses range well but can be pressured and taken down
DFS Perspective: Patterson has more submission potential if it hits the mat, while Waters is the cleaner striker and better at controlling distance. It's a volatile GPP fight with sneaky potential, but the lean is Waters to keep it standing and outpoint Patterson, with both live for a finish.
UFC Paris Pick: Waters
Brad Tavares (21-10-0) v. Robert Bryczek (17-6-0)
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 21 wins (5 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 14 decisions)
- Durable veteran with sharp fundamentals and strong takedown defense
- Low finishing rate limits DFS upside despite consistency
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17 wins (11 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 5 decisions)
- Aggressive striker with legitimate knockout power
- Can be outworked if his early power doesn't find the mark
DFS Perspective: Tavares brings steadiness, durability and the experience edge, but his low finishing rate makes him a less appealing DFS play. Bryczek is dangerous early with knockout upside, making him the higher-ceiling option for GPPs. Tavares is the safer pick to grind out a decision, while Bryczek offers the boom-or-bust play.
UFC Paris Pick: Taveras
Rinat Fakhredinov (24-2-1) v. Andreas Gustafsson (12-2-0)
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 24 wins (11 KO/TKO, 7 submissions, 6 decisions)
- Relentless wrestler with smothering top control
- Durable grinder who breaks opponents with pace and pressure
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12 wins (8 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Well-rounded fighter with solid grappling and striking
- Less tested at the UFC level, can be controlled by stronger wrestlers
DFS Perspective: Fakhretdinov is a strong DFS option thanks to his takedowns, control time, and ability to rack up points even in decisions. Gustafsson is a tough, well-rounded newcomer, but this matchup feels like a tough debut against Rinat's grinding style. The lean is Fakhretdinov by dominant decision with sneaky finishing upside late.
UFC Paris Pick: Fakhredinov
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Shauna Bannon (7-1-0) v. Sam Hughes (10-6-0)
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 7 wins (2 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 4 decisions)
- High-volume striker with solid movement and pace
- Still developing defensively, especially against takedowns
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 64" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10 wins (2 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Gritty fighter with solid wrestling and top control
- Durable and effective in grinding, attritional fights
DFS Perspective: Bannon has the edge on the feet with her striking activity, but Hughes' wrestling and ability to grind out control time make her the more reliable DFS side. Hughes doesn't score huge, but steady takedowns and pressure give her a clear path to win. I give the slight lean to Hughes by decision, with Bannon only viable if she can keep this standing.
UFC Paris Pick: Hughes
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
