This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
The UFC's first trip to France has come with difficulties, as late scratches have resulted in just 11 fights along with some mixing and matching. Be that as it may, we still have plenty of opportunities to find value on both DFS and betting platforms. We'll take a look at every bout across four sites, including a debutante taking on a mainstay at light heavyweight, and a Brazilian who has fought some of the best in the world getting very little respect against a local fighter. Our betting line this week comes from the RotoWire MMA Betting Page and is accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Farid Basharat ($9,200)
The speed and explosivity of Kleydson Rodrigues was able to surprise Shannon Ross, but Farid Basharat is cut from a different cloth, as he uses relentless pressure and grappling to drain the fight from his opponents. It's also worth noting that the Braziian fighter has yet to make weight in two UFC bouts, which could mean that "Ferocious" will have a completely depleted fighter in front of him if this fight makes it deep into Round 2.
Ange Loosa ($8,900)
Rhys McKee is yet another long fighter with pop who found success in the Cage Warriors promotion. While those attributes can play in the UFC, the determining factor as to whether these fighters will find success at the highest level seems to be their takedown defense. "Skellator" has defended just one of the four takedown attempts he has been presented with in his two UFC fights. This has resulted in dominant ground performances by both Khamzat Chimaev and Alex Morono. Loosa can use his length as a striker but isn't afraid to wade into the clinch and make a fight dirty. Unless he is able to land a big shot early, I see this fight being fairly similar to McKee's previous efforts in the Octagon.
Bogdan Guskov ($7,600)
Guskov may be one of the most promising debutants on the card, as his pressure and power have led to a whopping 12 KO/TKO finishes among his 14 wins. While he is a striker primarily, Guskov also features a wrestling game and will fire elbows and knees from the clinch, a realm in which Volkan Oezdemir is generally quite comfortable. The nickname "No Time" may be more than just a comment on finishing fights, as we have seen Oezdimir slow down in the face of relentless opponents before. The Uzbeck fighter has been finished just once in his 16 professional MMA bouts, and I can't gamble on the former light heavyweight title challenger finding a finish before he slows down.
Thiago Moises ($7,700)
Home field bias aside, I'm struggling to understand why Benoit Saint-Denis is the favorite in this one. While he has used his grappling to put up big scores in his last three fights, I can't help but think of his first fight against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, in which the French Fighter took an extended (and largely unnecessary) beating for three rounds. Moises doesn't have the fluidity or variety in his strikes as someone like Dos Santos, but his boxing and distance management has gotten better with each fight, and Saint-Denis won't be able to work the BJJ blackbelt over quite so easily if he does get this one to the floor. In short, Moises can compete in the one area Saint-Denis needs the fight to be, which doesn't bode well for his prospects.
Sergey Spivac ($7,700)
Spivac feels like the public darling in this spot, but I am going to have to play the sucker after Ciryl Gane showed us atrocious takedown defense and ground skills against both Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones. Spivac is a strong and relentless grappler who constantly hunts for submissions, and while Gane will have a significant striking advantage, he has never been known for his big knockout power. The upshot of this is Spivac being able to hang around long enough to win a grappling exchange or two, which may be all he needs.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks
Joselyne Edwards OVER 67.5 Significant Strikes, Jacqueline Cavalcanti OVER 50.5 Significant Strikes, and Manon Fiorot OVER 78.5 Significant Strikes
Nora Cornolle and Edwards are similar fighters, as they both like using their frame to land long strikes. I expect this will lead to a kickboxing match for 15 minutes, as neither woman has looked good in the face of a wrestling attack over the course of their careers.
Cavalcanti will have numerous advantages over Zarah Fairn, with speed and the ability to throw in combination at the forefront. If it weren't for her toughness, this would have me predicting a KO/TKO. Instead, I'm going to bet that Cavalcanti pours on the volume against "Infinite" from bell-to-bell. This may lead to a late stoppage, but not before we have comfortably exceeded our total.
Fiorot got by on strength and physicality in her early UFC fights, but subsequent tests have forced "The Beast" to show what she can do on the feet, as she has landed over 90 significant strikes in two of her last three fights. Rose Namajunas has always been a tricky grappler who can stuff takedowns, which should result in these two trading blows for the better part of three rounds.
Plays to Consider on Super Draft
Manolo Zecchini – 2.1 X Multiplier
Morgan Charriere likes to come forward in a style we've discussed with previous French fighters on this card, but "The Last Pirate" is more flatfooted than some of his counterparts, and has always struggled with committed grapplers. Meanwhile, Zecchini is athletic and can do a bit of everything in the cage, including mix takedown attempts in behind his strikes. While he can get a bit reckless at times, he should be able to solve a static puzzle like Charriere.
Yanis Ghemmouri – 2.25 X Multiplier
Late scratches led to a bit of a shuffling of the deck on this card, which means Ghemmouri is no longer facing a powerful and dangerous fighter in Caolan Loughran. As such, I'm willing to take a shot against William Gomis, who likes to use his range to set up counter punches. Ghemmouri is nothing if not an active fighter who should find joy with his leg kicks. He may not be the better fighter skill-for-skill, but I like Ghemmouri to outwork Gomis over three rounds.
Bets to Consider
Taylor Lapilus (-158)
I searched high and low for a knockout prop, but since this fight was only recently put together, a straight bet will have to do. I mentioned Caolan Loughran's power earlier, but neglected to note that his forward pressure comes with a complete disregard for defense, along with punches that are carried way too low. This should allow an accurate counter striker like Lapilus to find the kill shot in short order.
For more UFC betting picks, check out our UFC Paris Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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