This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Benoit Saint-Denis ($9,100)
$9100 is a decent chunk of change for a fighter with a .500 record over the course of two UFC bouts, but I've been impressed with what I've seen from Saint-Denis. Yes, he gets a little bit reckless on the feet at times, but he's an excellent wrestler and tough as nails. When you add in the fact he's facing a company newcomer in Gabriel Miranda, and more importantly, fighting in his native Paris, I like Saint-Denis to pay off.
Joaquin Buckley ($7,200)
This is a simple value play. I agree that Buckley deserves to be an underdog to his opponent, Nassourdine Imavov. That said, Joaquin has won five of his past six fights dating back to October 2020, with four of those coming via knockout. He's highly explosive in short spurts and has obvious fight-ending power, making Buckley an ideal "punt" play for those looking to fill out their lineups, particularly in large tournaments.
Don't forget to try out these plays on the RotoWire DraftKings MMA DFS Lineup Optimizer. Also, check out Jon's full DraftKings UFC Paris Preview.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks
Ciryl Gane OVER 1.5 takedowns and Alessio Di Chirico UNDER 1.5 takedowns
Gane isn't typically much of a wrestler, averaging a measly 0.69 takedowns per 15 minutes, but there's some precedent here. Gane got Jair Rozenstruik to the mat twice in their fight in February 2021, and Don'Tale Mayes three times in their October 2019 bout. Going up against an opponent in Tai Tuivasa who has massive power and nothing else, I think Gane and his team will be smart enough to try to limit the time spent on the feet. He's clearly the better all-around fighter, and two takedowns in a fight scheduled for 25 minutes isn't much.
Di Chirico has lost four of five and is almost certainly fighting for his job. His 1.62 takedowns per 15 minutes looks reasonable on paper, but he's hit this number just once in his past eight fights, and that came against Kevin Holland, a fighter who, at the time, was one of the worst grapplers in the middleweight division. Di Chirico hasn't scored a single takedown since the Holland bout in June 2019. Easy fade.
Bets to Consider
Nathaniel Wood to win outright (+115)
Wood and Charles Jourdain is the fight I am most looking forward to on this entire card. Both are highly aggressive and athletic strikers who are willing to eat a strike in order to land two of their own. It's a true pick 'em for me, which is essentially what the Vegas odds indicate, and I'm willing to ride with Wood at plus money. This is an easy Fight of the Night candidate.
Nasrat Haqparast and John Makdessi OVER 2.5 rounds (-210)
The fact Makdessi is now 37 years of age and hasn't fought in nearly 17 months is highly concerning. When you get to be that age, your durability can go at any time. That said, these two men have combined to be knocked out just three times in 43 professional fights. The odds favor this fight seeing the final bell. If you're worried about the the juice, you can parlay it with one of the bigger favorites on the card to bring the price down.
Ciryl Gane (-540), Robert Whittaker (-230), Abusupiyan Magomedov (-260) to win outright parlay (+135)
The fact we can parlay these three at a decent amount of plus money is remarkable. I touched on Gane earlier. I think he's too talented and too athletic for Tuivasa. The same goes for Whittaker against Marvin Vettori. "Bobby Knuckles" has never rolled through every middleweight not named Israel Adesanya, so while Vettori is a solid opponent, that's an easy pick. Magomedov is the unknown as he has never fought in the UFC, but his opponent, Dustin Stoltzfus, had lost three straight before taking a unanimous decision from Dwight Grant this past July. He's fighting for the second time in a little over the month. I'll take the newcomer. You could always parlay Gane and Whittaker with any other fighter if you're worried about Magomedov.
For more UFC betting picks, check out our UFC Paris Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire Sports Betting section.
Plays to Consider on Money Knife Fight
Robert Whittaker UNDER 92.5 total strikes
No one likes Whittaker more than me, and as I mentioned earlier, I think he gets by Vettori without issue, but this is a massive number. Only one of Whittaker's last seven fights was scheduled for three rounds. That came against Jared Cannonier in October 2020. That bout went the distance, with Rob landing 75 total strikes. Vettori moves better than Cannonier, even if he has less power. I'd consider Whittaker at 80 or so strikes, but 90-plus is too much.
