Top DFS Picks and Betting Strategies for UFC Vegas 109
The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 109 card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
2025 Overall Picks: 223-85-1 ~ Dog Picks 35-22-1
Drake's Bet of the Week: Priscila Cachoeira +270
Bet of the Week Record: 17-8-1 +1698
DFS Lock of the Week: Anthony Hernandez - 19-5
Fanduel Captain: Hernandez/Medic
Roman Dolidze (15-3-0) v. Anthony Hernandez (14-2-0)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15 wins (8 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Heavy-handed striker with strong top control
- Slows down under pressure and struggles when forced to grapple defensively
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14 wins (3 KO/TKO, 8 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Relentless wrestler with elite pace and suffocating pressure
- Breaks opponents with volume grappling and non-stop scrambles
DFS Perspective: This is Hernandez's fight to lose. His pace, cardio, and wrestling should be too much for Dolidze to handle. Expect multiple takedowns, control time, and the potential for a late submission if Roman fades. Hernandez is one of the strongest plays on the slate in all formats.
UFC Vegas 109 Pick: Hernandez
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Steve Erceg (12-4-0) v. Ode Osbourne (13-8-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12 wins (2 KO/TKO, 6 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Well-rounded with crisp boxing and strong grappling awareness
- High fight IQ with the ability to control tempo and positioning
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 13 wins (5 KO/TKO, 5 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Long, athletic striker with flashy movement and speed
- Struggles with consistency and fades when pressured
DFS Perspective: Erceg is the cleaner, more complete fighter, and should be able to expose Osbourne's flaws. Expect him to win exchanges on the feet and mix in grappling when needed. Osbourne is live early, but Erceg's pressure, control, and pace make him a top-tier play.
UFC Vegas 109 Pick: Erceg
Iasmin Lucindo (17-6-0) v. Angela Hill (18-14-0)
- Height: 5'3" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17 wins (8 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 6 decisions)
- Powerful striker with sharp combinations and strong physicality
- Still improving, but already fights with confidence and control
- Height: 5'3" – Reach: 64" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 18 wins (5 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 12 decisions)
- Volume-based kickboxer with tons of experience and durability
- Struggles to stop takedowns and lacks true finishing upside
DFS Perspective: Lucindo should be faster, stronger, and more dangerous in all areas. Expect her to land the bigger shots and possibly mix in control time if needed. Hill is tough and can extend fights, but she's outgunned here.
UFC Vegas 109 Pick: Lucindo
Andre Fili (24-12-0) v. Christian Rodriguez (12-3-0)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 24 wins (10 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 11 decisions)
- Veteran striker with sharp boxing and strong takedown defense
- Dangerous when he fights with confidence and lets his hands go
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12 wins (3 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Pressure grappler with slick back takes and strong control
- Can be low output and struggles when he can't dominate positionally
DFS Perspective: Fili is one of the better underdog options on the slate. He has the experience, size, and striking to make this uncomfortable for Rodriguez. If he can keep it standing and stuff a few takedowns, Fili has a clear path to out-work him. Rodriguez is more suited for control-heavy scoring but lacks true finishing danger.
UFC Vegas 109 Pick: Fili
Miles Johns (15-3-0) v. Jean Matsumoto (16-1-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15 wins (4 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 9 decisions)
- Explosive wrestler with solid boxing and strong hips
- Can be low volume and slows down in high-paced fights
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16 wins (3 KO/TKO, 6 submissions, 7 decisions)
- Aggressive striker with sharp combinations and quick entries
- Scrambles well and stays dangerous in transitions
DFS Perspective: Matsumoto pushes a much higher pace and should be able to outwork Johns if he keeps it standing. Johns has the wrestling to slow things down, but if he can't control position, he's going to fall behind fast. Matsumoto is the better DFS play with volume and finishing upside.
UFC Vegas 109 Pick: Matsumoto
Eryk Anders (17-8-0) v. Christian Leroy Duncan (11-2-0)
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 17 wins (10 KO/TKO, 1 submissions, 6 decisions)
- Heavy striker with good size and knockout power
- Can drift late in fights and struggles when taken down
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 79" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 11 wins (8 KO/TKO, 1 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Sharp, pressure-based boxer with clean technique and good cardio
- Vulnerable if taken down, but usually keeps fights upright
DFS Perspective: This looks like a strong stylistic matchup for Duncan. Anders is a dangerous power puncher, but he's had his fair share of takedown concerns and waning output in later rounds. Duncan's boxing volume, pace, and cardio give him a reliable edge -- he should steer clear of takedowns and outpoint Anders. Duncan is playable in all formats with upside for strikes landed and decision volume.
UFC Vegas 109 Pick: Duncan
Julius Walker (6-1-0) v. Raffael Cerqueira (11-2-0)
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 6 wins (4 KO/TKO, 2 submission)
- Long, explosive striker with big power and killer instinct early
- Can overwhelm opponents quickly if he finds his range
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 11 wins (8 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 1 decision)
- Technical boxer with sharp counters and solid defense
- Unproven against explosive pressure and physicality
DFS Perspective: Walker brings serious power and length, and if he comes out fast, Cerqueira may not have time to adjust. Expect Walker to land something big early and take over the momentum. Strong GPP target with Round 1 knockout potential.
UFC Vegas 109 Pick: Walker
Elijah Smith (8-1-0) v. Toshiomi Kazama (11-4-0)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8 wins (4 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 3 decisions)
- Well-rounded bantamweight with solid wrestling base and improving strikes
- Can be low-volume on the feet and sometimes paces too patiently
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11 wins (3 KO/TKO, 6 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Submission specialist with sudden finishing power off scrambles
- Risky in stand-up exchanges and needs takedowns to win
DFS Perspective: Kazama lives in chaos. He's going to hunt scrambles and submission openings, especially if Smith tries to slow things down. Smith has size and wrestling, but Kazama's ground specialty gives him sneaky upside. Smith is safer if he can maintain control and volume, but Kazama is a live GPP dart with upside for a quick finish.
UFC Vegas 109 Pick: Smith
Joselyne Edwards (15-6-0) v. Priscila Cachoeira (13-6-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15 wins (6 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Volume striker with long-range kicks and decent grappling
- Can be flat-footed and lacks real finishing power
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12 wins (8 KO/TKO, 0 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Wild brawler with huge power and aggressive pressure
- Struggles defensively but always live for a knockout
DFS Perspective: Cachoeira is a strong dog to target thanks to her power and kill-or-be-killed style. Edwards might have the cleaner technique, but she gets hit often and doesn't have the physicality to discourage Cachoeira. Great GPP option with round-one finish upside.
UFC Vegas 109 Pick: Cachoeira
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Uros Medic (10-3-0) v. Gilbert Urbina (7-3-0)
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 10 wins (8 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Fast starter with lethal striking and serious finishing instincts
- Can be wild at times, but thrives in early chaos
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 7 wins (2 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Long frame with decent pressure and cardio
- Too hittable early and often folds under clean power shots
DFS Perspective: This is a great spot for Medic to shine. He's the more dangerous striker by far, and Urbina's tendency to get clipped makes him a perfect target. Expect Medic to come out firing and land something heavy. Strong GPP play with round-one knockout potential.
UFC Vegas 109 Pick: Medic
Gabriella Fernandes (10-3-0) v. Julija Stoliarenko (11-8-1)
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 10 wins (2 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Striker with good movement and sneaky submission skills
- Dangerous when she finds her rhythm and stays off the mat
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11 wins (10 submissions, 1 decision)
- Armbar specialist who thrives in chaotic grappling exchanges
- Struggles on the feet and fades when she can't get it to the ground
DFS Perspective: Stoliarenko is dangerous early if she can drag it into a scramble, but Fernandes has the striking edge and enough grappling to shut that down. If Fernandes keeps her distance and avoids the mat early, she should cruise with volume or a late finish.
UFC Vegas 109 Pick: Fernandes
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
