Saturday's 13-fight slate lost a certified banger when Ricky Simon and Yadong Song were given their own headlining spot later this month, but we still have plenty of options when deciding how best to spread around our resources via DFS and betting. We'll cover each bout across four platforms, including the biggest underdog on the slate, and a budding knockout threat with a juicy finishing prop. Our bets this week come from the RotoWire betting page and are accurate as to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Jeremiah Wells ($8,400)
Wells is an absolute hurricane in the cage, blitzing his opponents with hard strikes and a power-wrestling attack. This unwavering aggression should catch up with him as he moves up the ranks, but I'm not sure Matthew Semelsberger will be the one to capitalize on these openings. While he does push from the opening bell, Wells somehow looked like he had plenty in the tank prior to his second-round finish of Warlley Alves, and "The Jedi" has absorbed more than 4.5 strikes per minute in his UFC career.
Christos Giagos ($7,200)
Giagos was unable to grapple in his last two fights due to the acumen of his opponents, but "The Spartan" generally mixes a wrestling game into his overall attack, as evidenced by the 3.2 takedown average he has logged in 11 UFC fights. Rick Glenn's defining attribute is his toughness, which makes me gravitate toward the better all-around fighter. It's also worth noting that Giagos seems to have improved a shabby gas tank that plagued him earlier in his career.
Karine Silva ($9,100)
Priscila Cachoeira has to be facing a very specific type of opponent before I can pick her to win a fight. Essentially, that opponent needs to have no grappling skills whatsoever. This doesn't describe Silva, who is adept when it comes to trips and will look for her takedowns up against the fence. She will also enter this fight with a reach advantage, which will make it more difficult for "Zombie Girl" to simply swarm her with big shots.
Rani Yahya ($6,500)
Unlike some of his contemporaries who may have hung on a bit too long, Yahya is still producing wins in his twilight years, most recently taking a decision win from Kyung Ho Kang in 2021. Montel Jackson has incredible power and is a strong wrestler in his own right, but his long frame will be his own worst enemy on the ground with someone like Yahya, and the Brazillian hasn't tasted defeat by KO/TKO since 2009. Jackson works slowly enough that Yahya should be able to find his entries and create scrambles, which is all the reason I need to take a flier at this price.
Curtis Blaydes ($8,800)
Sergei Pavlovich has absolutely run through his last five opponents, finishing all of them in violent fashion via first-round knockout. I am picking Blaydes comfortably regardless, as I believe improvements in his boxing have made him one of the more technical strikers in the division, to say nothing of his strength and tireless wrestling. Pavlovich wilted almost immediately after being taken down by Alistair Overeem in his UFC debut, and I can't bank on Pavlovich simply disposing of Blaydes the way he has with lesser opponents and welcoming brawlers.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks
Iasmin Lucindo UNDER 68.5 Significant Strikes, Brad Tavares OVER 47.5 Significant Strikes, and Bobby Green OVER 98.5 Significant Strikes
Lucindo has the makeup of a fighter who tries to be patient and pick her shots, but as soon as she gets hit, the Brazillian fighter explodes into what can only be called windmill punches as she tries to get back at her opponent. Neither of these modes are good for tallying strikes, particularly against an opponent like Brogan Walker, who will look to clinch to stem the tide.
I expect Tavares to put on something of a boxing clinic in this one, moving in and out of range while sticking his opponent with jabs and low kicks. Neither of these men wrestles a great deal, so we should get a pretty straightforward standup battle. It should also be noted that each competitor has been incredibly durable throughout their respective careers.
99 strikes is a veritable ton to land in a three-round fight, but Green regularly exceeds the number with ease, save for when he has to contend with committed grapplers, or if a fight of his finishes early. Jared Gordon has lost four of his six bouts by KO/TKO but hasn't been finished by strikes in his last six UFC appearances, and doesn't wrestle enough for me to be concerned about Green's output.
Plays to Consider on SuperDraft
Junior Tafa - 1.95 X Multiplier
I'm not completely sold on either man in the battle of the less accomplished brothers, but Mohammed Usman works slowly, doesn't wrestle nearly enough, and has been badly hurt multiple times in his young career. That's enough for me to pick Tafa, who will pour on volume in the face of the more powerful but slow-footed Usman. Tafa's pedigree as part of a team trained by Mark Hunt also leads me to believe toughness has been engrained into his DNA.
Karol Rosa 1.95 X Multiplier
I'll be the first to admit I've underestimated Norma Dumont in her UFC career, but aside from physicality, I'm still not sure what consistent skill she brings to the cage. This won't be enough against Rosa, who has not only taken down strong grapplers like Lina Lansberg and Sara McMann but will put the volume on Dumont early.
Bets to Consider
Francis Marshall to win via KO/TKO (+650)
I initially had to check this line for accuracy, but I've seen the number (or one like it), across three different sportsbooks, so I am convinced of its validity. I can only assume the issue is that Marshall is not a knockout artist, as his finish of Marcelo Rojo in his UFC debut was the first of his seven-fight MMA career. Still, we know that putting two wrestlers across from each other can result in a striking match, and William Gomis' upright stance has resulted in his chin being touched on more than one occasion. He may be a wrestler by trade, but Marshall looks plenty powerful for this division, which may mean the knockouts will come as he continues to grow into his frame.
Danaa Batgerel wins via KO/TKO (+150)
Danaa's slow-paced countering style has made finishes harder to come by in the UFC, but "Storm" is a nightmare opponent for someone like Brady Hiestand, who wades into the pocket with his chin up. Hiestand will look for grappling exchanges, but Danaa is incredibly strong for the division and should be able to keep his opponent upright until he knocks him down.
For more UFC betting picks, check out our UFC Vegas 71 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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