One might expect a 12-fight card with two massive favorites on it to be something of a wash in terms of viewing and betting potential, but Saturday's slate features quite a few opportunities for prospective players to make money whether wagering or playing DFS. We'll cover all fights across four platforms, including a tough out at welterweight looking to blemish an undefeated record and a gritty heavyweight who may have found just the right matchup. Our betting line this week comes from the RotoWire MMA Betting Page and is accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Abusupiyan Magomedov ($7,700)
Sean Strickland seems to thrive in matchups where his opponent is content to let him lead, which allows him to control the fight with his jab and find his offensive rhythm. I doubt this will be the case against Nurmagomedov, who showcases excellent footwork, has a jab of his own, and can execute punishing leg kicks. It also shouldn't be forgotten that the Dagestani fighter is an excellent wrestler and exhibits strength in clinch situations. In short, I'm not sure I see an area where Strickland has an advantage over Abus, making him a curious dog and an excellent potential point-scorer over five rounds.
Melissa Gatto ($8,700)
Gatto's leg reach may be enough to disrupt the flat-footed Ariane Lipski, but her best path to victory will certainly come on the ground, as "The Queen of Violence" hasn't shown much awareness when it comes to getting off of her back. While Gatto's upright stance may lead to her eating a hard shot or two, Lipski will sometimes collapse the pocket for her opponent by overswinging, and I expect Gatto to take advantage of every grappling exchange she is afforded in this matchup.
Rinat Fakhretdinov ($8,800)
The UFC didn't do Kevin Lee any favors in his first fight back in the organization, as his gas tank was becoming more and more of an issue before he completely fell apart after his first round against Daniel Rodriguez, leading to a lopsided decision loss. A solid, but unspectacular, performance against Diego Sanchez in another promotion has done nothing to convince me he will be able to overcome a relentless wrestler like Fakhretdinov. Even if his athleticism allows him to start fast, Lee will likely find himself on a similar island if he is unable to land a big shot, as "Gladiator" is no stranger to grinding out opponents.
Max Griffin ($7,200)
Michael Morales is clearly a talented fighter, but I have a nagging feeling that the undefeated welterweight has benefited from fighters not being able to deal with his explosivity and power in the pocket. Griffin is the perfect fighter to test this theory, as he has some of the best footwork in the division and can use his jab to set up combinations or takedown attempts. Morales will always look for clashes with the expectation he will come out on top, but it will take more than horsepower to best a fighter like Griffin.
Ivana Petrovic ($8,900)
Luana Carolina's strength and offense in the clinch could prove dangerous in this matchup, but her lack of speed will be an issue more often than not. This will be the case against Petrovic, who features fast hands and a controlling top game. Carolina has been taken down six times in her last three fights, which doesn't exactly bode well for a contest with such a willing wrestler who will constantly press the action.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks
Joanderson Brito UNDER 27.5 Significant Strikes, Brunno Ferreira OVER 25.5 Significant Strikes, and Guram Kutateladze OVER 55.5 Significant Strikes
I wasn't quite sure what to do with the (-1100) favorite here, but playing the under on Brito's low strike total makes some sense, as Westin Wilson is the spitting image of Stephen Thompson without the explosive offense or submission defense. The 34-year-old has taken four of his seven career losses by submission, and it would be surprising if Brito wanted to engage with an awkward striker unnecessarily. This is particularly likely since six of Brito's 14 wins have come via submission. The upshot should be Brito spending much of his time in top position, landing regular strikes and looking for submission attempts.
Ferreira is incredibly explosive and powerful, but Nursulton Ruziboev has logged 42 professional fights, having only been finished twice over that span. This should make for a three-round affair in which "The Hulk" forces his opponent to walk through power shots. Ruziboev will attempt to grapple with Ferreira, but The Brazilian fighter was able to scramble very well against Gregory Rodrigues, which gives me confidence that he will be able to keep his feet in this one.
Kutateladze is such a ferocious kickboxer that he often only uses his grappling for defensive purposes. I expect a similar plan of attack against Elves Brener, who tends to excel when his opponent gives him time to work. I doubt this will be the case against Guram, who will employ hard kicks to keep range and do damage with short elbows in the clinch. Brenner is solid defensively and has shown a chin, but Kuteladze should land early and often to breeze past this total.
Plays to Consider on Super Draft
Damir Ismagulov – 1.95 X Multiplier
I'm not holding Ismagulov's suffocating loss to Arman Tsarukyan against him heading into the matchup against Grant Dawson, as "Ahalkalakets" has a seemingly endless gas tank that allows him to apply pressure throughout the course of a fight. The same can't be said for Dawson, who we have seen flag late in fights due to opponent resistance. It wouldn't surprise me to see Ismagulov use some of his own offensive wrestling here, as he is an incredibly strong and experienced grappler. In the meantime, "Qazaq" should be able to use his slick boxing to keep his opponent at bay.
Yana Santos - 2.25 X Multiplier
Karol Rosa likes to get into the clinch and tally up strikes, but this will be a tall order against one of the stronger fighters in the division in Santos. Yana has shown her chops as a kickboxer as well, making it difficult to determine where Rosa will find her joy here, particularly after she struggled to get much going against another strong fighter in Norma Dumont.
Blagoy Ivanov – 2.1 X Multiplier
I was tempted to throw a coin or two on Ivanov to get his first finish in the Octagon against Alexandr Romanov, who has looked like an absolute mess of late. This was never more evident than in his fight against Alexander Volkanovski, as "Kong" seemed to quit after failing on his first takedown attempt. Ivanov is incredibly strong, durable, and has deceptively fast hands for a man of his build. If he can use his Judo to either stay on his feet or return to an upright position after getting taken down, he could have this fight all his own way.
Bets to Consider
Ismael Bonfim wins via KO/TKO (+200)
Benoit Saint-Denis will come forward without regard for defense when attempting to ground opponents. Unfortunately, this means he will be diving headlong into the range of an explosive and powerful kickboxer in Bonfim. "Marreta" has successfully defended all four takedown attempts he has faced between the UFC and the Contender Series, and the French Fighter doesn't have enough depth in his game to surprise Bonfim with his entries.
For more UFC betting picks, check out our UFC Vegas 76 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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