This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC heads back to the Apex in Las Vegas for UFC Vegas 83 on Saturday, Dec. 9. In the main event, top-15 bantamweights collide as Yadong Song takes on Chris Gutierrez.
Below, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Bantamweight
Tim Elliott (19-13-1) vs. Su Mudaerji (16-5)
Tim Elliott took this fight on less than a week's notice, which is why these two flyweights are fighting at bantamweight. Even without much time to cater his camp to a specific opponent, I still like Elliott to get the win.
Elliott has been a very well-rounded fighter, but the key to success will be his grappling. He averages 3.73 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Sumudaerji has a mediocre takedown defense of 66 percent.
On the feet, Sumudaerji is more active than Elliott, but the long-time veteran has great footwork and is hard to hit. Elliott will be able to out-grapple Sumudaerji here to get a decision win.
UFC Vegas 83 Best Bet: Tim Elliott (-142)
Weight Class: Light heavyweight
Anthony Smith (37-18) vs. Khalil Rountree (12-5)
For my underdog, I'm backing Anthony Smith to get the win despite taking the fight on short notice against Khalil Rountree.
Smith is coming off a decision win over Ryan Spann in a fight in which he showed off his solid chin. Rountree, meanwhile, has been on a solid winning streak, emerging victorious in four fights in a row. The wins weren't over high-level opponents, however, and his lone ranked opponent was Dustin Jacoby in a fight many thought Jacoby won.
Rountree has been very inconsistent in his career. Sometimes he is on, but other times he is very low-volume.
On the feet, Smith and Rountree are very similar, while 'Lionheart' will have the grappling advantage. Ultimately, however, I expect this one to be a striking-heavy battle. To me, this is a coin-flip fight, so I'll back Smith to get the win as a sizable underdog.
UFC Vegas 83 Best Bet: Anthony Smith (+190)
Weight Class: Lightweight
Nasrat Haqparast (15-5) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (17-6)
For my prop, I'm backing Nasrat Haqparast to beat Jamie Mullarkey by decision.
Haqparast is 7-4 in the UFC but has shown off a good chin, as he is durable and doesn't win many fights by stoppage. Out of his seven UFC wins, he has won six by decision.
Mullarkey, meanwhile, has struggled as of late, and his fights have gone the distance in three of his last four fights.
On the feet, Haqparast throws more volume than Mullarkey, while he also has good takedown defense, so he should be able to keep the fight standing. Mullarkey is there to be hit, as he has a 54 percent striking defense, and the volume will be the difference here.
UFC Vegas 83 Best Bet: Nasrat Haqparast by decision (-103)
Weight Classes: Bantamweight & Lightweight
Yadong Song (20-7-1) vs. Chris Gutierrez (20-4-2)
Melquizael Costa (20-6) vs. Steve Garcia (14-5)
For my parlay, I'm backing Yadong Song and Melquizael Costa to get their hands raised Saturday.
Yadong is set for his third UFC main event and coming off a very impressive fifth-round TKO over Ricky Simon in a one-sided fight. Before that, he lost to a serious contender in Cory Sandhagen, but Yadong showed well in that fight. It was very competitive.
Gutierrez, meanwhile, looked good against Heilialateng, but when he got a step up in competition against Pedro Munhoz, he was picked apart. On the feet, Yadong will be able to land the better shots and cruise to a decision win.
In the other leg, I'm backing Costa over Garcia after the two were supposed to fight last week. The fight was postponed a week due to an illness from Garcia. Both are solid grapplers, so it will likely remain on the feet.
On the feet, Costa throws more volume and is also hard to hit, as I expect the Brazilian to pick apart Garcia for three rounds to get a decision win.
UFC Vegas 83 Best Bet: Yadong Song & Melquizael Costa parlay (-147)
UFC Vegas 83 Best Bets:
Here is a recap of this weekend's UFC Vegas 83 best bets:
- Tim Elliott (-142)
- Anthony Smith (+190)
- Nasrat Haqparast by decision (-103)
- Yadong Song & Melquizael Costa parlay (-147)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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