Saturday's 11-fight slate is unusual for a UFC fight card, as it largely features big favorites and big underdogs without much in between. We'll break down the spots prospective bettors and DFS players can look to for profit, including a tough gatekeeper at flyweight and a main event that includes a fighter who may not be up to the task. Our betting lines this week come courtesy of the RotoWire MMA Betting Page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Muhammad Mokaev ($9,100)
Mokaev will be sought after in all formats at this price, as "The Punisher" has yet to post a score lower than 99 in five UFC fights. The chalk must be eaten here, as Alex Perez hasn't fought since July of 2022 and has a nasty habit of falling into submissions after going to the ground. I see almost no way Perez will be able to keep up with Mokaev in scrambles, which should ultimately lead to another big performance.
Vitor Petrino ($9,000)
Petrino's power, speed, and wrestling have paid dividends at light heavyweight, with the Brazilian averaging 105 points in three UFC fights. He will have a significant athleticism advantage against Tyson Pedro, who is a decent top grappler in his own right but won't have many answers in the bottom position. While he'll need to be mindful of leg kicks at range, Petrino should simply be able to overwhelm his opponent in this one.
Umar Nurmagomedov ($9,700)
Strong wrestlers who put up big scores are all over the card this week, and Nurmagomedov may be the top of the class. The Dagestani fighter has dominated every fighter he has faced in the Octagon, making him as close to a rightful favorite as one can be at (-1200) odds. I expect Umar to continue his path to title contendership, as Bekzat Almakhan tends to let his opponent dictate pace and is susceptible to grapplers.
Matt Schnell ($7,000)
I've backed Steve Erceg in both of his UFC bouts, but I don't see why he should be such a big favorite against an opponent in Schnell who will work quickly and put a pace on "Astroboy," who likes to use his length as a counter striker. Schnell is slick off his back, having notched two triangle choke submissions in the Octagon, and should be able to keep up with Erceg in the area where he is strongest.
Eryk Anders ($9,300)
With three losses in his last four fights, one could be forgiven for not immediately noticing improvements in Aders' game. It should be noted, however, that "Ya Boi" has become far more comfortable striking at range and has done a good job integrating takedowns into his offense. Meanwhile, Jamie Pickett can't seem to get out of his own way in the Octagon, as he continually backs himself to the fence, which leaves him vulnerable to grappling and big strikes in the pocket.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady UNDER 66.5 Significant Strikes and Javid Basharat OVER 76.5 SIgnificant Strikes.
Al-Selwady's fight with Loik Radzhabov will go one of two ways. Either Radzhabov will dominate with wrestling, or the Palestinian fighter will use his athleticism to tire out "The Tajik Tank" and likely get a stoppage in the second or third round. Both of these scenarios will work to limit the number of significant strikes landed, as Al-Selwady will need to play a stick-and-move game instead of sitting in the pocket.
Aiemann Zahabi has been good at keeping his feet against wrestlers, as evidenced by his 75 percent takedown defense rate. This should leave Basharat with no other option than to sit in the pocket and throw, leading to plenty of opportunities to pile up significant strikes. It should also be pointed out that Zahabi has been incredibly durable in his MMA career, having only been knocked out once in 12 professional fights.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
L'udovit Klein OVER 6.5 Minutes of Fight Time, and Christian Leroy Duncan OVER 6.5 Minutes of Fight Time.
AJ Cunningham is taking his fight against Klein on less than a week's notice, but that doesn't automatically make me think quick finish, as Klein hasn't finished a fight since his UFC debut in 2020. "Mr. Highlight" should remain his patient, counter-punching self, while Cunningham looks to use his jab and kicks in space.
Claudio Ribeiro doesn't do much aside from swing from his hip at range, but the strikes are so wild that most opponents tend to see them coming. Duncan should be no different, as he will be able to use his athleticism to avoid the big shots and pick his opponent off from range. It wouldn't surprise me if this fight ends at some point, but this will likely occur after Duncan has decided that Ribiero has lost some explosiveness.
Bets to Consider
Bernardo Sopaj (-105)
This fight was made so recently that I don't see many KO props available, but it's worth taking a look at Sopaj across the board, as Vinicius Oliveira has made his way through the regional scene based on pure athleticism. What struck me when watching tape on Sopaj was an excellent command of range, which will be helpful as his opponent tries to lure him in to eat big strikes. Sopaj may not be a complete fighter, but he is by far the more put-together man in this matchup, and that composure should carry him to victory.
Jair Rozenstruik wins via KO/TKO (+175)
Rozenstruik's extreme counterpunching style has led to some boring fights in the past, but he has the perfect opponent in Shamil Gaziev, who will pressure and throw wide shots. Gaziev got noticeably tired in his fight against Martin Buday, giving me no confidence that he will have the cardio to fight his style for five rounds. It may happen later in the bout, but I fully expect Rozenstruik to find his opponent's chin at some point.
For another UFC betting perspective, check out our UFC Vegas 87 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
North Carolina sports betting will launch March 11 with a wide variety of great online sportsbooks. Some of our favorite North Carolina sportsbook promos include the Caesars North Carolina promo code and the Fanatics Sportsbook North Carolina promo code.
If you prefer to deposit at a sportsbook via PayPal, RotoWire has an up-to-date list of all the top-rated PayPal betting sites in one place. We also list all major sportsbooks accepting credit card.
