This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
UFC Vegas 96 Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 96 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Cong Wang (5-0-0) v. Victoria Leonardo (9-5-0)
Cong Wang - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 5 wins
Victoria Leonardo - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 64" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: This could be a sneaky fight for GPP contests. Wang is making her UFC debut after winning on the Road to UFC and looks to be a solid play. She fights fast and should be better everywhere. Leonardo has offered little in her four UFC fights and should fall flat again.
UFC Vegas 96 Pick: Wang
Josiane Nunes (10-2-0) v. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (6-1-0)
Josiane Nunes - Height: 5'2" - Reach: 67" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 10 wins
Jacqueline Cavalcanti - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 6 wins
DFS Perspective: Nunes has shown a terrific ability to brawl against fighters with the reach advantage, and while she likely finds some success, Cavalcanti should come away with the win. Cavalcanti will have the volume and speed edge. However, this fight likely does not score well enough to hit optimal without an early finish. Cavalcanti will make a solid cash play at her price on DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 96 Pick: Cavalcanti
Jose Medina (11-3-0) v. Zachary Reese (7-1-0)
Jose Medina - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 11 wins
Zachary Reese - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 74" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Medina is getting a UFC shot, though it might be undeserving after getting dominated in his Contender Series fight. There is nothing spectacular about him, but he could find a flash knockout if Reese is rushing in. However, Reese will likely follow up on his first UFC win with a second consecutive knockout. Reese will be one of the most popular plays on the slate and is a near-lock for DFS contests.
UFC Vegas 96 Pick: Reese
Slava Borshchev (7-4-1) v. James Llontop (14-3-0)
Slava Borshchev - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 7 wins
James Llontop - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: These guys will each be happy to be in the ring with a fellow striker, as they have both struggled against heavy grapplers. This will likely be a firefight, though I am leaning towards this going to a decision. I expect this to be close, but I think the power and speed of Borshchev will win out in this one. It is a decent fight to target for GPP contests, as we could see a lot of action.
UFC Vegas 96 Pick: Borshchev
Dennis Buzukja (12-4-0) v. Francis Marshall (7-2-0)
Dennis Buzukja - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 12 wins
Francis Marshall - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be an entertaining fight between two fighters who have struggled in the UFC. I expect a good mix of striking and grappling, potentially scoring well in DFS. Buzukja looked great in his last fight, while Marshall looked flat and struggled striking. Buzukja could be a sneaky play for all contests.
UFC Vegas 96 Pick: Buzukja
Edmen Shahbazyan (13-4-0) v. Gerald Meerschaert (36-17-0)
Edmen Shahbazyan - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 13 wins
Gerald Meerschaert - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" – Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 34 finishes in 36 wins
DFS Perspective: This will be a popular fight to target for DFS, as someone is likely to get finished. Shahbazyan will have a considerable edge on the feet, while Meerschaert will have the edge on the mat. Shahbazyan tends to struggle when put on his back and has had a tough time with takedown defense, but I expect him to find a knockout eventually.
UFC Vegas 96 Pick: Shahbazyan
Michael Morales (16-0-0) v. Neil Magny (29-11-0)
Michael Morales - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 79" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 16 wins
Neil Magny - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 80" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 29 wins
DFS Perspective: Gatekeeper Magny draws another high-profile prospect looking to make his way into the top-15. However, Morales is not just any prospect. He should be better everywhere in this fight, and nobody will be surprised to see him put Magny away.
UFC Vegas 96 Pick: Morales
Ryan Loder (6-1-0) v. Robert Valentin (10-2-0)
Ryan Loder - Height: 6'2" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 6 wins
Robert Valentin - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: This is the Ultimate Fighter middleweight title bout, and it should be a banger. Loder is impressive in his own right, but Valentin is scary. I expect Valentin to be better everywhere and come out as the new TUF champion. He makes an excellent play for all contests.
UFC Vegas 96 Pick: Valentin
Angela Hill (17-13-0) v. Tabatha Ricci (10-2-0)
Angela Hill - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 64" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 17 wins
Tabatha Ricci - Height: 5'1" - Reach: 61" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Ricci is great when she can control the fight and have her way on the mat. She will not have that luxury in this fight. Hill is one of the best fighters at ruining her opponents' game plans. She has elite takedown defense, and her striking continues to elevate. I expect Hill to stop most, if not all, takedowns and strike her way to a unanimous decision.
UFC Vegas 96 Pick: Hill
Jared Cannonier (17-7-0) v. Caio Borralho (16-1-0)
Jared Cannonier - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 77" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 17 wins
Caio Borralho - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 75" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Cannonier looked great for a couple of fights, but then it seemed his age caught up to him. At 40 years old, he will likely be a step behind most of the guys in the division, and it will be no different here. Borralho has won all six of his UFC fights, and he continues to show a diverse skill set in all of his fights. The Fighting Nerds fighter will be victorious again.
UFC Vegas 96 Pick: Borralho
Looking to give a new sportsbook a try? Get in on the action with our best sportsbook promo codes, as well as a list of best sports betting sites and sports betting apps.
For bettors who prefer to deposit at a sportsbook via PayPal, RotoWire has an up-to-date list of all the top-rated PayPal betting sites in one place. We also list all major sportsbooks accepting credit card.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
