The first race in the Round of 8 of the playoffs is on tap this weekend. NASCAR had recently used the date at Las Vegas Motor Speedway to kick off the Cup Series playoffs, but five seasons ago they moved it to deeper in the postseason. The stars of NASCAR will head to Sin City and Las Vegas for the South Point 400 and to continue the battle of whittling down the playoff field as we approach the championship round at Phoenix.
This will be the second visit of 2025 to the Las Vegas oval. We will have good data from that event earlier in the season to look back on, and we'll take full advantage of it. We'll need to take into account several factors this weekend. Firstly, we'll need to examine the current hot streaks, as the trending drivers should carry their streaks of success or struggles into Las Vegas. Secondly, we'll need to take a look at how the drivers have performed on similar ovals this season. The intermediate oval is the most widely used track on the circuit, so we have plenty of data to examine. Lastly, we'll take an in-depth look at the race earlier this season at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. That data will have some relevance for this weekend, even though that event was held way back in mid-March. The crew chiefs' notes should be very helpful for the teams that finished well that weekend to repeat their success this weekend.
LVMS is one of many intermediate ovals on the circuit, so we have lots of data to fall back on at this point in the season. Since NASCAR's top division raced earlier this season at the Vegas oval, we'll get the opportunity to look back on the race earlier this year with a discriminating eye. Considering that historical data is so valuable in developing our weekly driver list, we'll take a quick look at these track specific statistics. The loop stats in the table below span the last 20 years of competition at this 1.5-mile oval. Let's take a look at the loop stats for the last 27 races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway for some background on the drivers.
| Driver | Avg. Finish | Quality Passes | # of Fastest Laps | Laps Led | Laps in Top 15 | Driver Rating |
| Kyle Larson | 9.4 | 945 | 395 | 690 | 3,691 | 105.5 |
| Joey Logano | 9.8 | 1,158 | 283 | 584 | 5,249 | 100.8 |
| Kyle Busch | 11.0 | 1,266 | 308 | 332 | 5,510 | 97.6 |
| William Byron | 13.6 | 925 | 241 | 282 | 3,027 | 97.1 |
| Ryan Blaney | 13.9 | 888 | 195 | 84 | 3,372 | 92.6 |
| Denny Hamlin | 12.8 | 1,242 | 211 | 412 | 4,698 | 90.5 |
| Chase Elliott | 19.0 | 871 | 227 | 178 | 3,057 | 88.9 |
| Brad Keselowski | 12.6 | 983 | 316 | 359 | 3,944 | 88.2 |
| Tyler Reddick | 16.5 | 593 | 133 | 91 | 1,900 | 85.6 |
| Christopher Bell | 16.9 | 492 | 146 | 248 | 1,676 | 84.9 |
| Alex Bowman | 16.8 | 872 | 170 | 29 | 2,800 | 84.7 |
| Ross Chastain | 16.0 | 485 | 104 | 167 | 1,725 | 77.3 |
| Austin Dillon | 17.8 | 594 | 35 | 12 | 2,271 | 71.0 |
| Austin Cindric | 20.9 | 225 | 31 | 55 | 762 | 70.4 |
| Erik Jones | 20.7 | 602 | 48 | 1 | 1,930 | 69.5 |
| Daniel Suarez | 17.8 | 436 | 64 | 168 | 1,554 | 67.9 |
| Ty Gibbs | 22.5 | 193 | 41 | 23 | 564 | 67.3 |
| Josh Berry | 18.5 | 125 | 20 | 18 | 289 | 67.0 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.2 | 470 | 42 | 41 | 1,495 | 66.3 |
| AJ Allmendinger | 19.7 | 324 | 35 | 1 | 945 | 65.1 |
Las Vegas Motor Speedway had been a track of parity for much of its history. We've seen different racing camps and different manufacturers dominate at the Nevada oval in the past. Ford, however, seems to have risen above the fray. Drivers from this manufacturer have won the last two Las Vegas races and have halted Chevrolet's three-win run at the desert oval. That trend is one we need to pay attention to this weekend.
In March the NASCAR Cup Series visited the Nevada desert and Josh Berry rolled into victory lane for the first time at the 1.5-mile tri-oval. With Berry picking up that victory Ford remained squarely atop the heap at LVMS. However, before we cede the trophy to a blue oval camp this weekend, we need to realize that contenders will come from several different stables for Sunday's race. Chevrolet has won three times in the last five Las Vegas races. However, Toyota has won in Vegas since Denny Hamlin's 2021 fall victory at the track. Toyota drivers are clearly last in the manufacturer pecking order at LVMS with no Top-10 finishers and only one (Christopher Bell) Top-15 finish here in March. Sunday's Playoff battle is shaping up to be a showdown between Chevrolet and Ford, with a slim chance of any Toyota intervention. Here are our picks for fantasy racing success at Las Vegas Motor Speedway for this Sunday afternoon's South Point 400.
The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win
Kyle Larson – Larson turned in a strong performance at the Roval and collected a brilliant runner-up finish last Sunday. He and the Hendrick team have a shot at staying on a roll this week in Sin City. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet hasn't been quite as strong on cookie cutter ovals this season, but he did register an encouraging sixth-place at Kansas Speedway last time out. Larson is a three-time Las Vegas winner having won two of the last four events at the oval in addition to his four-career runner-up finishes at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. His 72-percent Top-10 rate and 9.4 average finish at LVMS is a jaw-dropping statistic and really shows his consistency and excellence at this track. This is a race that could propel Larson towards the championship at Phoenix.
Christopher Bell – Bell's third-place finish at the Roval has put him in prime position to be racing for the championship at Phoenix in a few weeks. He rides a five-race Top-10 streak into this weekend's action. For his follow-up act we have Las Vegas Motor Speedway up next and what should be another strong performance for the No. 20 Toyota team. The young driver finished a strong third-place at Kansas Speedway in his most recent intermediate oval outing so optimism is high that Bell can break the Toyota slump at Vegas this Sunday. Bell has won the pole and finished runner-up in two of the last four Las Vegas events including 155 laps led in this event one year ago. With the championship within reach, we should see a very motivated Bell and No. 20 Toyota team this weekend.
Ryan Blaney – Blaney has a good career record at LVMS. The Penske Racing star has posted six Top 5's and 10 Top 10's for respective 33- and 56-percent rates. He's never won at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, but Blaney has been incredibly consistent. The 13.9 average finish spread over 18 starts is a testament to this fact. The driver of the No. 12 Ford has had some mixed results on the cookie cutter ovals this season but he does have a Top-5 finish recently at Gateway as a good measuring stick to his potential at Las Vegas. Blaney always seems to be racing among the leaders in these Vegas events. With the 2025 championship on the line, it would not be surprising at all to see this driver and team elevate their game in the South Point 400.
William Byron – Byron did just enough to assure his playoff advancement at the Charlotte Roval last weekend. He battled to a respectable 11th-place finish and now will carry that momentum into the Round of 8 and Las Vegas. Byron can now focus and set his sights high for a great Las Vegas performance. Intermediate ovals have been inconsistent tracks for the No. 24 team in 2025. However, Byron has a special aptitude for the Nevada oval. He grabbed a victory here in 2023 and rides a five-race Las Vegas Top-10 streak into this Sunday's playoff battle. Byron has close to 300-career laps led at this facility and a pair of strong fourth-place finishes in his last two Vegas starts. He'll be one of the top contenders to win the South Point 400.
Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win
Ross Chastain – Chastain comes to Las Vegas eliminated from the playoffs but he could be the big spoiler this Sunday. He's had some strong performances of late, but he's also been battling some consistency issues. Chastain will look to continue impressing on a friendlier intermediate oval in Sunday's South Point 400. The Trackhouse Racing veteran won at the similar oval in Charlotte earlier this season, finished runner-up at Fort Worth and sports a strong 43-percent Top-10 rate on these tracks in 2025. Chastain's recent Las Vegas Motor Speedway performance has been quite impressive. The driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet rides a current four-race Top-10 streak at the Nevada oval. That includes 14 laps led and fifth-place finish there in March. Chastain could be the bolt from the blue this Sunday afternoon.
Denny Hamlin – Hamlin has advanced in the playoffs, but he's got some work to do if he plans to be a participant in the Championship Round at Phoenix. He'll look to up the level of performance at Las Vegas Motor Speedway this Sunday afternoon. Intermediate ovals have been a puzzle for the No. 11 Toyota team this season but a recent runner-up finish at Kansas is a real bright spot during these playoffs. LVMS is not one of his better cookie cutter tracks, but he's come on strong there in recent performances. Hamlin won this event four years ago and he boasts 412-career laps led in Vegas, most of those since the 2020 season. His three Top-10 finishes in his last four Vegas starts have boosted his Top-10 rate at the track to a respectable 52-percent. The Joe Gibbs Racing star will be racing among the leaders this Sunday afternoon.
Chase Elliott – With two wins and four Top-10 and five Top-15 finishes on intermediate ovals this season, the Hendrick Motorsports star has been one of the most consistent performers in the series on the mid-sized tracks. The average finish for the year is checking in around a stellar 9.6, so we've slotted this driver and team in the solid plays list this week. Elliott has never won at the Las Vegas oval, but he did finish a respectable 10th-place at the Nevada oval in March. Las Vegas Motor Speedway isn't one of his better cookie cutter tracks with just a 38-percent Top-10 rate and pedestrian 19.0 average finish. However, Elliott has been pretty sharp on these style tracks this season and is thick in the battle for the championship, which should provide some extra motivation.
Chase Briscoe – Despite some career-long struggles at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, we're opting to put Briscoe in the solid plays list this week due to his strength this season on intermediate ovals. The move to Joe Gibbs Racing has done a world of good for his Cup Series career on performance on these cookie cutter tracks. The driver of the No. 19 Toyota has registered two pole positions and four Top-5 finishes on these size tracks in 2025 for a 57-percent Top-5 rate and sound 13.4 average finish. Most recently Briscoe battled to a strong fourth-place finish at Kansas Speedway. That's a good glimpse of the potential he brings to Las Vegas this week. Don't get too caught up in looking at his career numbers at LVMS and rather focus on his excellence this season on these tracks.
Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Las Vegas & solid upside
Joey Logano – Logano has been one of the more successful drivers at Las Vegas Motor Speedway the last few seasons. The driver of the No. 22 Ford has a strong 9.8 average finish at the oval, and he's led well over 550 laps there in just his last 19 starts. Logano has four-career victories in the Nevada desert and they've all come since 2019. The last of those wins came in this event one year ago. Intermediate ovals have been a bit of a weakness for the No. 22 Penske Racing team this season, but he still has one win and two Top-10 finishes this year on the 1.5-mile ovals. Logano skated into the Round of 8 in the Cup Series playoffs and will not spoil this opportunity. This veteran driver will make his presence felt at the front of the field this Sunday afternoon.
Alex Bowman – The driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet was sadly eliminated from advancing in the playoffs after the opening round, but that doesn't mean he won't have utility this weekend. Bowman will look put that disappointment behind him and rebound with a good performance in the South Point 400. The one-time Las Vegas winner won this event three years ago and has cracked the Top 10 in his last two starts in Sin City. His career numbers at Las Vegas Motor Speedway are still lagging overall, but his recent level of performance has been quite encouraging. Bowman has been a 57-percent Top-10 finisher on the cookie cutter ovals this season and that's a reassuring statistic. Despite Bowman not participating in the Round of 8, he should be a steady performer in this 400-mile battle.
Josh Berry – The surprise winner of March's Pennzoil 400 in Las Vegas was a true bolt from the blue. Berry had never really made any impression in his three previous Cup Series starts at the track. However, he pulled a crafty and clever performance in March to beat Daniel Suarez in the final 19 laps of green flag racing that day. We have to include Berry and his No. 21 Ford team in the sleepers list this week for lessons learned earlier this season. Intermediate ovals have been a mixed bag for this driver and team but he did also grab a strong sixth-place finish at Kansas Speedway earlier in the season in addition to the Vegas win. We believe Berry will qualify well and challenge the Top 10 in Sunday's South Point 400.
Brad Keselowski – The three-time Las Vegas winner has been somewhat inconsistent on intermediate ovals this season but he's trending in the right direction with his last three starts. The owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford has Top 10's at Charlotte, Atlanta and Kansas leading into the playoffs. Keselowski has over 350-career laps led at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and his 13 Top-10 finishes rank at a strong 54-percent Top-10 rate. The average finish over 24 starts checks in at a solid 12.6. It's clear that the driver of the No. 6 Ford loves the progressive banking and wide sweeping corners of the track at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Keselowski finished 11th in March's Pennzoil 400 at LVMS, we're willing to bet he does even better in Sunday's second installment of the season at the Nevada oval.
Daniel Suarez – Suarez has seemingly figured this oval out starting in 2023. For years the veteran driver struggled at this facility. However, he has finishes of 10th-, 15th-, 11th-, third- and second-place have been his last five attempts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. That has boosted the Trackhouse Racing driver's Top-10 percentage here to 25-percent and lowered his average finish to a modest 17.8. His last two starts in particular have yielded 69 combined laps led on the Nevada oval. Suarez hasn't been a world beater this season on the intermediate ovals, but he does have two Top 10's and most recently was a 17th-place finisher at Kansas Speedway. We believe the No. 99 Chevrolet team will be ones to watch closely at LVMS.
Ryan Preece – The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing driver has been a steady performer this season on the 1.5-mile ovals. Preece has grabbed four Top-10 and five Top-15 finishes for a reasonable 14.0 average finish and 57-percent Top-10 rate. He's not a part of the playoff picture but he could be a non-playoff driver who makes plenty of impact on the South Point 400. Preece raced to a stunning, Las Vegas career-best finish of third-place here in March. He and crew chief, Derrick Finley, will have learned a lot from that experience. It was Preece's best performance on an intermediate oval all season and one that he could replicate this Sunday afternoon in the Nevada desert.
Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week
Tyler Reddick – Reddick didn't make it through into the Round of 8 on points, and now he looks to sort out things before the end of the season. Seven months removed from his 24th-place finish at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in March, the 23XI youngster will look to improve on that in Sunday's South Point 400. Reddick had good performance stats at this track but has had some difficulty in recent visits. He hasn't cracked the Top 20 in his last two starts and that has pulled his Top-10 rate at LVMS down to 45-percent and inflated his average finish to 16.5. Intermediate ovals have been a mixed bag for the No. 45 Toyota team this season with similar 43-percent and 15.3 marks. In summary, Reddick has had a down season and despite winning the pole at the Roval last week, we're calling for the fade at Las Vegas.
Ty Gibbs – Gibbs has had a poor season on the cookie cutter ovals. The young driver of the No. 54 Toyota has claimed just one Top-15 finish vs. six finishes outside the Top-20 on the 1.5-mile tracks. That works out to a disappointing 23.0 average finish for Gibbs on these style tracks. The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster has had similar struggles at Las Vegas Motor Speedway to this point in his career. Gibbs has made six Cup Series starts in Sin City and collected only one Top-10 finish (17-percent) in those starts and carries a 22.5 average finish into this weekend's action. He qualified a poor 29th-place here in March and labored to a 22nd-place finish in the Pennzoil 400.
Kyle Busch – Busch is limping towards the finish line in this 2025 season and it can't come soon enough. His eight Top 10's and 22nd-place points ranking are both career-lows to this point in the season. The driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet rides a five-race Top-10 drought into Las Vegas this week. Despite being a one-time Vegas winner and owner of 15 Top-10 finishes at the facility (54-percent), we're calling for the fade in the South Point 400. Busch has struggled mightily on the intermediate ovals this season. In seven starts he's collected just one Top-15 finish vs. five finishes outside the Top 20. The 21.4 average finish on the 1.5-mile tracks tells the tale. We believe Busch and the No. 8 Chevrolet team carry very little to no fantasy value into Sunday's Vegas battle.
Austin Cindric – After playoff elimination last Sunday at the Charlotte ROVAL, Cindric looks to regroup this weekend at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. It will be a tall task for the driver of the No. 2 Penske Racing Ford. Cindric has had his troubles on the cookie cutter tracks this season. Despite grabbing a sixth-place finish at LVMS earlier this season, he's failed to crack the Top 10 in the remainder of his intermediate oval starts. The 14-percent Top-10 rate and 22.9 average finish on these style tracks are not endorsements. Cindric has just two Top-10 finishes in seven-career Vegas starts (29-percent) and a lowly 20.9 average finish. He's a driver to avoid in all fantasy racing formats this weekend at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
