Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

There's been some chatter about the recent struggles of top-flight prospects to begin their MLB careers. Julio Rodriguez of the Mariners is 4-for-32 to start the season while still looking for his first home run. Bobby Witt has not fared much better, going 5-for-32 with three RBI and a stolen base.  Spencer Torkelson, the elder statesman of the group at 22, is performing the best bit is still only 6-for-25. He's also produced two homers and a .387 OBP, so he's been more than serviceable.

This feels like a good time to remind prospect aficionados that Fernando Tatis is the exception, not the norm. In other words, very, very few prospects - even the most highly touted ones - enter the bigs and immediately become stars. There's almost always a learning curve, the biggest jump of any baseball career is from Triple-A to the majors. As a result, the expectations can be unfair for hotshot neophytes coming out of the gate. Remember to exercise patience, even with those phenoms who are deemed "can't-miss".

With that disclaimer out of the way, here are some prospects in the headlines for this week's Minor League Barometer.

UPGRADE

Brayan Bello, P, BOS – Arguably the top arm in the Boston system, Bello is off to a fast start at Double-A Portland. The 22-year-old righty has fanned 18 batters in his first two starts over 10 innings. He's only walked two batters during that stretch while scattering six hits. Bello offers a three-pitch combo, with the most notable development being the added ticks of velocity on his fastball the last couple of years. He started 15 games at Double-A last year, so he could get bumped up to Triple-A sooner rather than later.

Jared Shuster, P, ATL – A first-round pick in 2020, Shuster had a decent, albeit unspectacular 2021 posting a combined 4.44 ERA, mostly at High-A. The southpaw was prone to the long ball, allowing 15 home runs in 18 games, including five in just three starts following a brief promotion to Double-A. Shuster's back at Double-A to begin the 2022 season, and is producing vastly different results so far with a 17:2 K:BB across 10 innings. He's also induced a lot of ground balls to the tune of a 2.25 GO:AO. This is a positive sign in regard to Shuster's ability to keep the ball in the park. The Braves seem to have a lot of young hurlers from which to choose, but he's certainly throwing his hat into the ring with his first two outings.

Jordan Lawlar, SS, ARI – Lawlar only played in two games last season due to a shoulder injury after being drafted, but has returned with a vengeance this year slashing .406/.512/.719 with three home runs, six RBI and five steals through eight games at Low-A Visalia. That power/speed combination is especially inviting in fantasy circles. Lawlar already appears to be making up for lost time, and the Diamondbacks are starving for hitting ranking near the bottom in almost every major offensive statistical category. He's not coming to the rescue right away, but at least his breakout gives Arizona hope for the future.

Royce Lewis, SS, MIN – It might have been easy to forget about Lewis, who is seeing his first live action since 2019 following the COVID stoppage and then a torn ACL. The Twinkies also signed Carlos Correa to a long-term deal, blocking the path for Lewis to everyday at-bats. Nevertheless, Minnesota must be excited about his start at Triple-A going .342/.422/.632 with one homer, five RBI and three steals through the first 10 games. Lewis remains a potential five-tool prospect, and the Twins may be forced to find a place for him both in the lineup and on the field if he continues to impress.

CHECK STATUS

Nolan Gorman, 2B, STL – Gorman has been shifted away from the hot corner due to Nolan Arenado covering third base in the big leagues and uber-prospect Jordan Walker's presence in the minors. On the downside, Gorman has made six errors in 23 games since moving to the keystone dating back to last season. He's also fanned 15 times in the first 10 games at Triple-A. There's some good news, as Gorman leads the minors with six home runs and is slashing .351/.415/.838.  The power is his selling point, but he clearly needs to work on other parts of his game.

Jack Leiter, P, TEX – The dearth of starting pitching for the Rangers at the big-league level has been well-documented, so it should come as no surprise that Leiter - the No. 2 overall pick in 2021 -  is being fast-tracked. Al's son started the year at Double-A, an extremely aggressive promotion even for a polished college pitcher. Leiter has more than held his own byposting a 2.57 ERA and 11:5 K:BB across seven innings. The low inning total and the struggles in control should indicate he's not quite as close to the majors as initially predicted. In fact, it would be a surprise if Leiter pitched any meaningful number of innings with the big club in 2022, even despite the organization's need for high-upside arms.

Gavin Williams, P, CLE – Williams has posted some astonishing strikeout numbers through his first two appearances this season, though perhaps he should at High-A and will turn 23 this summer. That being said, he's posted 17 Ks in only 8.2 innings. Williams is an imposing figure on the mound at 6-6, 240, and can hit triple digits on the radar gun. The development of his secondary pitches along with his ability to command them will go a long way towards determining his future role. The East Carolina product only entered the starting rotation during his final year of college, so he still has room to grow and learn.

Samad Taylor, 2B, TOR – Gabriel Moreno, Taylor's teammate at Triple-A, is batting .389 to begin the season while Otto Lopez is a more highly thought of middle infielder on the same team. Suffice to say, Taylor is overlooked even on his own squad, though all he continues to do is perform with an impressive 11 walks compared to just four strikeouts through 11 games. In fact, he's recorded more steals (five) than punchouts. Taylor already has a homer after 16 in only 87 contests a season ago. He may end up as trade bait, but his polish at the dish over the past season-plus is worth some notoriety as is his power/speed combination. In a less crowded organization, Taylor would likely already be in the Majors.

DOWNGRADE

Reid Detmers, P, LAA – Detmers has been absolutely pummeled in his first two starts this season allowing two homers while lasting just four innings against the vaunted Astros lineup and then giving up five runs on six hits before being yanked after 3.1 innings versus the Rangers. His fastball is hittable, so he'll continue to get hit hard by major-league batters despite a superb curveball and slider. Detmers clearly needs a better plan of attack when it comes to keeping hitters off-balance.

Nick Pratto, 1B, KC – Pratto enjoyed a huge comeback season in 2021 bashing 36 home runs and drawing 83 walks in 124 games between Double-A and Triple-A. He also went 5-for-15 with a home run during spring training. However, Pratto struck out over 150 times for the third-straight campaign, and it appears any thought of him hitting for average has gone by the wayside. He hasn't performed well in April going .213 with 19 strikeouts and just four free passes in 12 contests at Triple-A. The Royals could certainly use a first baseman and/or DH, but Pratto would probably provide more of the same in terms of what they already have at those slots considering his low average with a lot of strikeouts and a couple of long balls and walks sprinkled in. As a result, he needs to get hot before the Royals would even consider giving him everyday at-bats. The organization also has Vinnie Pasquantino, which only further complicates the situation.

Michael Toglia, 1B, COL – Toglia's star has faded, largely due to his inability to make consistent contact never having hit above .248 at any level with power numbers not loud enough to ignore the low batting average and high strikeouts. He was productive when he did put the ball in play and wasn't afraid to take a walk, but the former first-rounder is looking more and more like the Rockies' other infield prospects they've whiffed on in recent years. Toglia is batting just .182 with 15 strikeouts in his first nine games at Double-A, a level he logged 41 games last year. Simply put, there are other corner infield prospects more worthy of rostering in most other leagues.