This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Were you bummed there were only four MLB games played Thursday night (with a fifth game occurring due to a weather-related doubleheader)? Cheer up! There are 13 games on the DFS docket Friday evening starting at 7:05 p.m. ET or later. Of course, that means you have a lot to sift through, but I've done my sifting, and now I am about to do my recommending.
Pitching
David Peterson, NYM vs. COL ($9,000): So…turns out Peterson is just a really good pitcher. He's made 31 starts over the last two seasons and put up a 2.87 ERA with elite home-run suppression. Conversely…the Rockies. It's wild, and maybe even a little existentially distressing, that after we saw the 2024 Chicago White Sox emerge as probably the worst MLB team in history it seems that this year's Colorado Rockies are even worse. It's not even charming. It's just a bummer.
Casey Mize, DET at KAN ($8,900): As a Tigers fan, I've had much to enjoy about this season. Mize, once the first-overall pick, pitching well is one of my favorite things about said campaign. Granted, he has a 3.88 FIP compared to a 2.24 ERA, but he also has a 4.10 K/BB rate. The Royals aren't a team I fear giving Mize a dose of reality, even if he is up for one. They are 27th in runs scored and comfortably last in home runs.
Chris Bassitt, TOR vs. ATH ($8,600): It's reason for pause that Bassitt has been smashed by lefties. And yet, he's managed it thus far. Even with his issue with southpaws he has a 3.38 ERA, 4.85 K/BB rate and 1.03 HR/9 rate. On top of that, he has a sterling 1.61 ERA at home, the second time in his three years with the Blue Jays he's been excellent at home. The Athletics have a couple lefties that may get a hit or two against Bassitt, but they are average at scoring runs and not a real threat.
Top Targets
I grant you Corbin Carroll ($6,000) seems to be doing an experiment related to how productive you can be while striking a ton and walking once every couple games. However, turns out you can still be quite good. Like, say, slugging .560 with 16 homers, nine stolen bases and six triples. I know home runs are more valuable to DFS players than triples, but six triples through 56 games is the thing about Carroll that, to me, shows his skill the most. I don't believe in Jake Irvin's 3.42 ERA at all. He has a 4.47 FIP, his K/9 rate is down to 6.19, and his fastball is a full two miles per hour slower than last season.
Given that he has two home runs in his last four games, we can probably stop being concerned about Pete Alonso ($5,600) being on a cold streak. Plus, even with his recent valley in production he has a .931 OPS on the campaign. The number 360 is good for circles. It's not good when a pitchers allowed righties to hit .360 against them. That's what southpaw Kyle Freeland has done this year, and over the last three seasons he has a 5.28 ERA on the road.
Bargain Bats
Though Randy Arozarena ($4,300) has been cold as of late, he started his first full tenure with the Mariners with more gusto. He has six home runs and nine stolen bases, and Arozarena has literally posted a 20/20 campaign in every full MLB season he's played. Zebby Matthews has now made 11 MLB starts, and they have gone quite poorly. He has a career 6.85 ERA, and righties have hit .300 against him.
There is value in a disciplined approach, as Matt Chapman ($4,000) has a .342 OBP even though he's unluckily started the season hitting .224. Plus, he has nine home runs and five stolen bases, not to mention an .849 OPS on the road. San Fran has been the issue for Chapman. Wherever Cal Quantrill has gone, and he's on his third team in as many seasons, he's struggled. This year he has a 6.09 ERA, and his 34.8-percent groundball rate and 26.2-percent line-drive rate makes for a recipe for disaster.
Stacks to Consider
Padres vs. Pirates (Mitch Keller): Jackson Merrill ($5,200), Manny Machado ($5,000), Jake Cronenworth ($4,400)
Keller has a 3.66 ERA, because he's been able to squeeze in one of his classic strong runs that used to entice people to think that he had turned a corner in his career. It's his age-29 season and he has a career 4.51 ERA, and this season he has a 7.73 K/9 rate as well. When all is said and done, Keller's numbers will be worse than this, and the Padres could help with that. I have two lefties in this stack because Keller has been atypically bad against them this year. Southpaws have averaged .305 against him.
Merrill missed time, so, do recall his five homers, one triple and six doubles have come in only 29 games. He's also gotten even better against righties in his sophomore campaign and now has a career .898 OPS against right-handed pitchers. Machado is a righty, but he's having a strong season. He's averaged .313 with six home runs and seven swiped bags. The third baseman has picked up his power recently, as three of those home runs have come in his last six games. Cronenworth has missed time as well, but when he's played, he's been producing at the best level of his career. The lefty has slashed .258/.388/.473 through 30 games, and he's always managed Petco Park better than others. Since 2023 he has a .756 OPS in San Diego's park.
Cardinals at Rangers (Jack Leiter): Lars Nootbaar ($4,800), Brendan Donovan ($4,800), Masyn Winn ($4,400)
Leiter has been better than his MLB debut campaign last year, but that's in part because he had an 8.83 ERA in 2024. This year he has a 4.17 ERA but with a 4.48 FIP. Leiter remains one of the pitchers with the worst command among starters, as he's on pace to have a sub-2.00 K/BB rate once again. I'm not betting on walks to build a DFS stack around, but there's a chance for crooked numbers any inning guys are getting walked.
Nootbaar has a .355 OBP with eight home runs and four stolen bases. He has been much better at home this year, but the last two seasons he's been better on the road so that's probably just happenstance. I also like having him as a lefty against the right-handed Leiter. Donovan missed one game, returned and hit a home run in his return. Additionally, he has a .940 OPS against righties and also a .964 OPS on the road. Winn has taken a step forward this season, as he's averaged .278 and has six home runs and two doubles. Notably, he's been struggling with lefties but he has a .931 OPS versus righties in 2025.
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