Collette Calls: Remaining Schedule Advantages

I took a high-level look at the schedule just before the mid-summer classic, focusing attention on which teams had the most and fewest remaining games as well as how many of those games would be played at home versus the road. I would like to revisit part of that while also introducing remaining strength of schedule since the landscape of the league has changed significantly with an incredibly active and entertaining trade deadline this past week. All data referenced considers the schedule beginning Monday, August 4th. 

Remaining Games

You may have been underwhelmed to learn the Miami Marlins were tied for the most remaining games had you learned that factoid before the break. Now that they are the hottest team in baseball, suddenly their 52 remaining games look rather interesting. The Marlins have an entire extra series to get hits, runs, home runs, strikeouts, wins, and saves over teams such as Texas, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Boston, Seattle, Detroit, and the Athletics.

• 48 remaining games: Athletics
• 49 remaining games: Texas, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Boston, Seattle, Detroit
• 50 remaining games: Cincinnati, Baltimore, both New York teams, Baltimore, White Sox, both Los Angeles teams, Pittsburgh, Arizona, Kansas City, Houston, San Francisco, San Diego
• 51 remaining games: Cubs, Cleveland, Washington, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Milwaukee, Colorado
• 52 remaining games: Atlanta, Miami

9 of the 30 teams have an extra series to be played between now and the end of the season. That is great for fantasy managers who roster the stars from the Cubs, Phillies, and the surprising Brewers and Marlins. Additionally, that is three more games for Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan and Kyle Manzardo to hit while the starting staff attempts to get leads over to Hunter Gaddis and Cade Smith in the late innings. Many leagues may have trade deadlines coming this weekend, so fantasy managers should consider the extra plate appearances or starts some hitters and pitchers have compared to the the eight teams with fewer than 50 remaining games in their efforts to maximize the playing time until the end of the season.

Strength of Schedule

Using the data at Tankathon.com, we can see how each team's remaining strength of schedule will play out the rest of the way. The table below shows each team's remaining strength of schedule in descending order:

The Dodgers and Padres have six games against each other this month, and then never see each other again in the regular season. The two teams play one another the weekend of August 15 in Los Angeles and then square off again the following weekend in San Diego. The NL West will then be decided by how those two teams play out the two weakest strengths of schedule in baseball. That should help fantasy production on both rosters. Both teams have seven remaining games against Colorado as well as six against Arizona and three against Baltimore. Los Angeles has series against Toronto, Philadelphia and Seattle, while the Padres take on the Brewers, Red Sox, Mets and Mariners in the coming weeks. The favorable schedule is an added bonus to fantasy managers who possess the likes of Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Ramon Laureano, Robert Suarez, Nick Pivetta in San Diego as well as Shohei Ohtani, Andy Pages, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez, Will Smith a now-healthy Max Muncy as well as Yoshinobu Yamamoto. 

The Cubs are currently two games behind the red-hot Brewers, but strength of schedule will come into play here too with both teams having divergent 51-game schedules. The Cubs still have two series against Pittsburgh along with series against the Rockies, Nationals, Angels, Rays and two series against Atlanta. Milwaukee also has two more series against Pittsburgh and St. Louis, but their ledger inclues series against the Jays, Phillies, Mets, Padres and Reds, with just five remaining head-to-head games with the Cubs. Fantasy players on both squads still have plenty of time left to produce, but the Chicago players have the much more favorable matchups the rest of the way, with a heavier concentration of games against teams whose rosters have worsened since the trade deadline. That wonderful strength of schedule could help propel Matthew Boyd higher into the Cy Young conversation as well as Pete Crow-Armstrong in the MVP conversation while allowing Kyle Tucker a chance to get into the 30-30 club again and giving Seiya Suzuki the opportunity to overtake Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso on the RBI leaderboard in the National League. Conversely, a tougher strength of schedule hurts Milwaukee's chances, with Jackson Chourio potentially missing all of August with this hamstring injury, leaving Christian Yelich to shoulder the majority of the run production while the lesser-known names around him continue to contribute at a surprising rate. Quinn Priester has now gone 10-0 over his last 12 starts with a 2.45 ERA, but tougher days are ahead on his schedule.

Houston, despite seemingly two-thirds of their roster being on the IL at one point this season, is currently 2.5 games in front of Seattle in the AL West. Seattle enjoys a slightly better strength of schedule, while Houston has the extra game remaining on the schedule. Houston must still take on three AL East contenders for 12 of their remaining 50 games, with half those coming against the Yankees, while Seattle does not have any double-dips against tough compeition but does have series against the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets and Padres, as well as one remaining head-to-head series with Houston. 

Those Yankees flew through Toronto's jetwash as the Jays surged up the standings and have dropped eight of their last 12, including blowing a lead and getting walked off as I was composing this article Monday evening. Their strength of schedule is the easiest of the three contending teams in the AL East, as the Yankees have 27 remaining games against the trio of the Twins, White Sox, Orioles and Angels. They have two more head-to-heads against Boston, who has now leapfrogged them in the wild-card race, as well as one more series against the Jays. They hope to get Aaron Judge back today as you read this article as the offense sorely misses his presence. It should be expected he, Cody Bellinger, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. should see favorable pitching matchups for a good remaining portion of the season while Max Fried and Carlos Rodon can hopefully add some more wins to their resume if Devin Williams and the newly renovated bullpen can stop blowing games late. 

I worry about the performance of Detroit players moving forward, because even with their recent dreadful performance, they still retain an eight-game lead in the division over Cleveland. Every year, we see stories coming out about how players stay sharp down the stretch with big leads and we will see those same stories coming out with Detroit by Labor Day if all goes well. The limited roster expansion helps fantasy managers avoid the challenges of yesteryear, when teams would use these situations as open tryouts for the future and managers had to watch idly as their stars received multiple days off or watched the starter throw fewer innings to keep them fresh for October. Detroit has 13 remaining games against the White Sox and Twins, two more series against Kansas City, as well as series against Atlanta, the Athletics, and the Angels. Cleveland is the only winning team left on their schedule who they face more than three times the rest of the way. This is an extremely favorable schedule for Tarik Skubal's push to repeat as the AL Cy Young winner and for Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson and Zach McKinstry to continue their strong seasons and for Kyle Finnegan to resume his voluming of saves now that he's pitching for a better ball club. 

Finally, the three T's. Tampa Bay, Toronto and Texas each have the double penalty of 49 remaining games as play began Monday as well as a strength of schedule above .500. Tampa Bay has the added tax of playing away from Steinbrenner Field, where the offense has clicked more than it has on the road. Yandy Diaz has now hit 16 of his 20 home runs at home, so fantasy managers should lower their expectations of the chiseled first baseman potentially reaching 30 homers this season since he averages one homer a month on the road. Toronto is currently enjoying a three-game set in Colorado and kicked it off with a 15-spot which saw Bo Bichette drive in six runs and Ernie Clement go 5-for-6 with three runs scored. They have just 48 games left after this, and their only repeat opponent with a below-.500 record is the aforementioned Rays. Texas has two remaining series against the Diamondbacks, but just single dances with the Athletics, Twins and Angels while still needing to face four current division leaders as well as both New York teams. No Rangers batter has currently earned even $12 in mixed leagues according to our earned auction value calculator this season, even with the improving offense under Bret Boone. The pitching staff will have its work cut out for them as well with the tougher schedule.

Free-agent action is likely done in your leagues now that the trade deadline has settled everything, but if you still have funds left, you can use this data to your advantage as you make decisions on who to acquire, who to drop, and finally who to trade for as your league trade deadline is also very likely approaching. Good luck!