A 12-game main slate is on tap for Tuesday at FanDuel, with first pitch at 7:05 p.m. EDT. Eight of our 24 listed pitchers are priced at $9,000 or greater, and it's a challenging mix of bad form or challenging matchups with those pay ups.
Rain looks possible in Chicago, which makes Jack Flaherty at $9,300 a touch risky despite a plus matchup. There are possible swirling winds in multiple spots, which need to be monitored leading up to first pitch for any potential offensive boosts. San Francisco looks particularly interesting, with Sacramento not far behind. Despite wind potential, Giants-Padres has a low 7.5 run total, but not as low as Pirates-Brewers at 6.5. Five games have totals of at least 9.0 runs, led by A's-Rays at 10.0. The Dodgers (-178), Royals (-174), Cardinals (-174), and Tigers (-172) are the slate's biggest favorites.
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Pitching
Freddy Peralta, MIL vs. PIT ($10,300): With this miniscule 6.5 run total, snagging the cheaper option on the mound makes sense. Pittsburgh doesn't hit anyone, coming with a .291 wOBA, 83 wRC+, .111 ISO and 22.6 percent K rate. There's big BvP history here given the divisional opponent, and the Pirates roster hasn't embarrassed itself against Peralta, hitting .258 (33-for-128) with five homers and a .779 OPS, but the righty has also earned a 30.4 percent K rate against them. Peralta hasn't been efficient, failing to go more than five innings in his last four starts, so we'll need that strikeout total, but every expectation is he'll match Paul Skenes.
Michael Wacha, KC vs. WSH ($9,300): I really don't enjoy this price point on Wacha. The only upside comes from clean innings as he's posting just 6.7 Ks per nine. He's in terrific form though, allowing just six runs and 16 hits across his last five starts, spanning 30.1 innings. Washington doesn't strike out much (20.1 percent) but ranks 24th with a 97 wRC+ off righties. It sets up for Wacha to again turn in a quality start with minimal damage allowed while likely coming with a low roster rate.
Emmet Sheehan, LAD at LAA ($7,700): Sheehan has posted elite strikeout totals in the minors and is still averaging 9.3 per nine in the majors. It's always a question of innings/workload for him, as he's never gone more than five innings in his five starts, and the Angels are always a threat to run into a long ball or two. However, their 25.6 percent K rate, and the fact that Sheehan likely gets some run support, give him a chance to out-perform this salary. He's topped a 3x return in six of seven outings, including relief work, while showing that strikeout potential.
Top Targets
Spencer Strider has been vulnerable to homers, missing locations just enough for opponents to tee him up. Juan Soto ($4,000) has three homers in his last four, and has hit safely in eight of nine.
Jacob Lopez has been solid for the A's, but Junior Caminero ($3,400) is too hot and too favorably priced to ignore. He's hit in six straight and eight of nine (14 hits total) with six homers. Pair that with the ballpark and potential wind, and the appeal should be obvious.
Victor Mederos' 3.41 ERA at Triple-A comes with a 5.45 xFIP and he hasn't fared well against big-league hitters in minimal exposure. Mookie Betts ($3,300) is quietly gaining steam with 11 hits in his last six games, and he gives us pretty cheap exposure to the Dodgers offense.
Bargain Bats
Atlanta's offense has finally begun to match preseason expectations, scoring at least seven runs in four of five against the Marlins. Marcell Ozuna ($3,100) has homered four times in his last four starts but isn't guaranteed a spot. Michael Harris ($2,700) has three straight multi-hit games and homers in three of his last six, while Drake Baldwin ($3,000) has seven hits and 10 RBI over his last four. It's not an elite matchup against Clay Holmes, but the righty appears to be running out of gas, posting a 4.91 ERA in July. One of these pieces helps round out a build.
It's never a bad idea to target offense against the Rockies, even if Kyle Freeland has been marginally better on the road. Ivan Herrera ($3,100) has a massive .497 wOBA, 230 wRC+ and .410 ISO off lefties, while Willson Contreras ($3,000) sits at .374/145/.236.
Mitchell Parker has allowed 12 runs and 18 hits over his last 9.0 innings, but the Royals don't have elite numbers against lefties. Maikel Garcia ($3,100) is the exception, posting a .401 wOBA, 156 wRC+ and .217 ISO.
Stacks to Consider
Red Sox vs. Spencer Arrighetti (Astros): Jarren Duran ($3,400), Alex Bregman ($3,400), Roman Anthony ($2,900)
Arrighetti hasn't pitched enough to have targetable splits, but he allowed five runs and 11 hits to Miami in his first since April. Anthony makes too much sense and is very budget friendly. He's got a team-best .388 wOBA and 147 wRC+ off righties, homered last night and has hits in 12 of his last 13. Bregman has the revenge narrative against his former team. He also homered last night, has nine hits in his last seven, and boasts a .383 wOBA, 143 wRC+ and .265 ISO off same-handed arms. Duran sits at .382/142/.224 and has eight hits and six runs over his last seven.
Blue Jays vs. Ben Brown (Cubs): Vladimir Guerrero ($3,400), Daulton Varsho ($3,100), Addison Barger ($3,000)
Brown comes with a 6.29 road ERA (4.54 FIP), and while his home numbers are slightly better, he's allowed a .385 wOBA to lefties overall. That allows us to target Varsho and Barger at reasonable salaries. Varsho has a .404 wOBA, 162 wRC+ and .456 ISO off righties, while Barger sits at .365/135/.269. Guerrero remains underpriced based on his current run, as he has 11 hits and three homers in his last six. He's also hitting righties well with a .380 wOBA, 146 wRC+ and marginal .197 ISO.
