We've got a nine-game main slate at FanDuel Saturday evening, with first pitch at 7:10 p.m. EDT. Six arms are in the payup tier, and it's led by Trevor Rogers ($10,700). It's not the name you'd expect to lead a slate in pricing, but he's reeled off nine straight quality starts and has a great matchup against a Giants team that struggles against lefties.
The usual spots are present for offense, Denver and Sacramento, both coming with double-digit run totals. Low 7.5 totals are present in Guardians-Mariners and Orioles-Giants. The Dodgers (-220), Cubs (-200) and Yankees (-210) are the slate's overwhelming favorites. Early weather looks dry, but 15-plus MPH outbound wind could be a factor in San Francisco.
Pitching
Nick Pivetta, SD at MIN ($9,600): If you're not paying up for Rogers, Pivetta looks like a safe choice who might even be a touch underpriced. He's earned quality starts in three straight and seven of eight. His strikeouts have been inconsistent, and the Twins have a marginal 21.9 percent K rate, so perhaps the ceiling isn't massive, but a 4x return is still very possible.
Cam Schlittler, NYY vs. CWS ($9,100): The youngster is coming into his own, having not allowed more than three runs in any start, and just one total in his last three, spanning 17.2 innings, striking out 22 while allowing just seven hits. We noted the Yankees win-probability above; he'll likely get ample run support, too. Schlittler keeps the ball on the ground (49.5 percent), further suggesting limited damage at most.
Gavin Williams, CLE at SEA ($8,500): I'm not loving many of the paydown options Saturday, so Williams may be as low as I'm willing to go. He's not in great form as he walks too many to work deep into games. The appeal is simply the ballpark factor in Seattle and the low run expectancy from both sides. Seattle has positive splits against righties and is willing to walk. Simply looking at the options priced below him, I'll counter by asking you who you'd trust more? The floor largely doesn't exist for Williams, but he has flashed some elite ceilings.
Top Targets
How you choose to attack the Cubs lineup will be paramount to success. We don't have a ton of innings from Colorado's McCade Brown, so I'll trust Michael Busch's ($3,600) body of work against righties. He's homered in two straight and has a team-best .383 wOBA, 150 wRC+ and .265 ISO.
The White Sox are pretty clearly pitching around Aaron Judge ($4,800), walking him five times in the last two nights, and Shane Smith isn't as bad as his price suggests. Still, the Yankees have a high 5.8 run expectancy, so I'll back Jazz Chisholm ($3,600). He's homered four times in his last six, five times posting at least 18 fantasy points.
Taj Bradley allowed seven runs and nine hits in five innings to the White Sox last time out. Fernando Tatis ($3,500) has at least nine fantasy points in nine of his last 10 and a .373 wOBA and 144 wRC+ off righties.
Bargain Bats
The Dodgers have absolutely pummelled Eduardo Rodriguez, going 41-for-94 (.436) with eight homers and a 1.279 OPS. Teoscar Hernandez ($3,200) is 10-for-23 (.435) with three homers. Enrique Hernandez ($2,500) is 7-for-13 (.535) with two homers and comes with four position flexibility, so should he be in the lineup.
The Rangers lineup is banged up, so it's not easy to feel confident despite the plus matchup. They face rookie Mason Barnett who had a 6.13 ERA and 5.53 FIP in Triple-A. When looking for bargains, a zero is okay if there is a ceiling. As such, give me Adolis Garcia ($2,800) who has six extra-base hits and eight RBI in six games since returning from IL.
There's not a lot of form from either the Angels or Astros, but there's also not a lot of fear of either team's starter. Yoan Moncada ($2,700) has a .360 wOBA, 131 wRC+ and .251 ISO off righties. On the other side, Carlos Correa ($2,800) hasn't shown any power since coming over, but has a .387 wOBA and 150 wRC+.
Stack to Consider
Tigers vs. Stephen Kolek (Royals): Riley Greene ($3,700), Kerry Carpenter ($3,100), Colt Keith ($2,900)
Kolek walks nearly three per nine, resulting in an elevated 1.80 WHIP, 6.26 ERA and 4.93 xFIP at Triple-A after being acquired from the Padres. We'll simply take the Tigers' three best against righties, who all likely hit atop the order (Carpenter TBD). Greene is an elite stand-alone play, with a team best .389 wOBA, 150 wRC+ and .303 ISO. Carpenter sits at .362/133/.268, giving us a second upside play. Keith has occasional pop, and his .358 wOBA and 128 wRC+ are still above average.
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