MLB Futures: AL and NL MVP Best Bets, Odds, and Predictions

MLB Futures: AL and NL MVP Best Bets, Odds, and Predictions

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

The 2023 MLB Best Bets, Sleepers, and Long Shots to Win the NL and AL MVP Awards

The 2023 MLB opening day is Thursday, March 30, 2023, and launches the new pitch clock era of baseball. Never before in more than 150 years of MLB history have any rules been added that restrain the amount of time permitted to elapse between pitches. So, all the new rule changes, the base pads being 3 inches larger to protect players from injuries will add the potential for more runs per game. A certainty is that the games will be shorter and average about 2 hours and 30 minutes bringing welcome relief to fans in attendance. 

This article will look at the best bets that I have taken to the window for the National and American League MVP awards. RotoWire has updated AL MVP odds and NL MVP odds all season long. If you're looking for more expert futures analysis, check out our Cy Young picks and MLB win totals to target.
 

NL MVP Odds

NL MVP Best Bets

Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies  (+1100 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Trea Turner was acquired by the Philadelphia Phillies during the offseason and makes an already offensive lineup one of the best in the NL. he accepted less money from the Phillies than what was offered by the San Diego Padres, but Bryce Harper spoke to Turner about how great the Phillies fans are to play in front of and what a great time he had during their playoff run to the World Series. 

Turner will play shortstop and is a monumental defensive upgrade for the Phillies. He batted .298 with 100 RBI, 101 runs scored, and hit 21 home runs for the Dodgers last season. he was an All-Star and finished 11th in the NL MVP balloting, and was awarded the Silver Slugger Award at shortstop last season. He is a career .302 batter with an 842 OPS and his slash lines will increase significantly in the hitter-friendly confines of Citizen's Bank Park. 

The defensive shift has been outlawed and Turner's elite speed will get him more hits on ground balls hit in the holes. Moreover, he has hit well to all fields and will get more home runs in home games. He has posted a 40% and higher hard-hit-ball percentages in each of his last four seasons, which is significantly above the MLB average of 35%. 

In a deep Phillies lineup that has many players fully capable of protecting him until Bryce Harper returns, Turner has the potential to set career highs in all offensive categories making him a sure-fire contender for the NL MVP Award.

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AL MVP Odds

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AL MVP Best Bets

Corey Seager, Texas Rangers (+4500 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

The favorite to win the AL MVP Award is currently the LA Angels' Shohei Ohtani at +200 odds. There is zero value to bet home at such short odds. The MLB season is a marathon consisting of 162 games and everyone's prices will move significantly over the course of the season. So, if you like Ohtani, for instance, be patient and you may have the opportunity to bet him at +1000 to better during the first 40 games of the season.

I really like Corey Seager to win the AL MVP and the current price of +2000 odds provides ample value and many reasons to back him. He plays in a very hitter-friendly launchpad in Arlington, Texas and I fully expect his slash lines to increase across the board from last year's career lows. He batted a career-low .245, but had a career-high with 33 home runs. The new rules will give him the opportunity to produce a slash line of .300/.380/.900 including 35 or more home runs will put him front and center as a contender for the AL MVP Award.

Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels (+800 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Mike Trout is poised for a monster season and combined with Ohtani may be enough to get the Angels into the playoff picture late in the season. I am not betting on him now, however, and recommend being patient and looking to get him at +1200 or better over the first 40 to 81 games of the season.  A solid strategy would be to bet 25% of your amount now, then look to add 25% more at 500 odds increments at +1000, +1500, and +2000 over the course of the season.

The new rules favor a player like Trout, who is a five-tool player and can hit for power and average both. My projections for him show a slash line of .295/.400/.950 and barring any significant injury will put him right in the heart of the race for the AL MVP Award. 

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
John Ryan
John has handicapped professional sports for 28+ years with a proven track record of success. He believes profits are earned over the long-term using advanced analytics, machine learning, and neural network quantitative applications. John has hosted or been a guest on more than 5,000 shows and signs off with "Bet with your heads and not over it. And may all the wins be yours." John provides advice with no hype -- just facts that you can trust.
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