Mound Musings: Targeting 2022 – Building a Draft Day Value List

You might be in a pennant race, or you might be looking forward to 2022. If your season is slipping away (or slipped away earlier), that doesn't mean your job is done. This is a great time to do your homework for next year, and even lay the foundations for a big season in 2022. This week we'll look at players to target next spring. Keep in mind, these won't necessarily be the "best" pitchers next season. These are pitchers who could potentially offer considerable value on draft day. They could be difference makers. The big-name aces will likely post excellent numbers next season, but in the majority of leagues, you'll pay full price for those stats. We're looking for valuable arms you can buy at a discount. Let's see who tops the list of pitchers who are establishing themselves as players to target on draft day next season:

Jameson Taillon (Yankees) – I don't often put a high school pitcher at the top of my kid's watch list; there are usually too many variables that can change the outlook before they are ready to contribute. I made an exception in 2010 when Taillon came out. Even as a teenager, he displayed a far more developed repertoire and stuff that was far beyond his years. Now, 11 years later, he has accumulated just 589 MLB innings and offers a laundry list of injuries including two Tommy John surgeries and a bout with cancer. He missed all of 2014, 2015 and, most recently, 2020. That said, I fully expected the first half of 2021 to be a time of rebuilding. It was. He ended June with a 5.43 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP, but the great news is, the command is continually improving, and he has taken the mound every five days. He's on pace to pitch more innings than in any year of his career except 2018, and his ERA continues to drop (now 3.94). If he stays healthy, he has the stuff to be a top 20 pitcher in 2022.

Aaron Nola (Phillies) – Every season, it seems like bad things happen to a handful of very good pitchers. This year's poster child for the "if it weren't for bad luck, I'd have no luck at all" award, Nola has posted a lackluster 4.33 ERA with an uninspiring 7-7 record. Don't get me wrong, he has made mistakes, but every pitcher does that. When you're going good and miss your spot, the hitter fouls it back. When things aren't going well, those mistakes end up in orbit, contributing to a high .317 BABIP and far too many homeruns. But, the Phillies aren't a good defensive team, and their bullpen tends to allow every runner a pitcher leaves on base to come around to score. His FIP is 3.50 – much better and probably still a bit inflated. On draft day, fantasy owners sometimes overlook factors that suggest things should have been better, and, more importantly, they underestimate the peripherals that are on the horizon.

Jordan Montgomery (Yankees) – Right on the edge. That's where I remain convinced Montgomery resides. He is tantalizingly close to a breakout season. Like a lot of young southpaws, his command wanders a bit, but I think that will improve. He throws strikes – well, most of the time – especially first-pitch strikes, something I love to see. He generates a lot of soft contact (which would be a bigger help on a better fielding team), and everything I see points to him missing more bats in the future. Right now, he's 5-5 with a respectable 3.69 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP, but he doesn't get the fanfare that many players in New York generate. No worries, that can be a good thing. Maybe that reduces his draft day price tag a few dollars. It's fairly unusual for a pitcher to feature as many positive indicators as Montgomery has on his ledger, so I will definitely be targeting him whenever possible on draft day 2022. Hmmm. Two Yankees in the top three here.

Triston McKenzie (Indians) – He's been a member of this list quite a while, but he needs to stop showing off like he has been doing lately. Until recently, he had a beautifully bloated ERA of more than 5.00 with a lofty WHIP of around 1.44. However, in his last two starts, he has tossed 15 innings, allowing just three hits, one walk and one run, while striking out 19. If he keeps that up, other owners are going to start paying closer attention, and that could hurt his value appeal next spring. There has always been some concern regarding his durability based on his slight build (he's listed at 6'5" and 165 pounds, but that weight might be generous, logged right after a very big pancake breakfast), but I just love his stuff. He's one of those guys who is so electric, he just needs to throw to the plate and let the movement take over. The Indians have clearly established themselves as a team that gets the best out of their young pitchers.

Yusei Kikuchi (Mariners) – The Pacific Northwest seems to be a good place to hide from the eyes of baseball buffs, and that is allowing an improving Kikuchi to fly under a lot of radars. When he first arrived from Japan in 2019, I was pretty interested based on what I had seen of him back home, but he really disappointed with an ugly 5.46 ERA and an even more alarming 1.52 WHIP. Still, he tossed a few solid outings into the mix. You could tell there was some potential to realize. Last year was marginally better, and now, in 2021, he might be putting it all together. His ERA is still a ho-hum 4.22, and his walk rate needs to come down more, but the better outings are coming more often. I think there is a longer than usual adjustment period when a pitcher arrives from Japan or Korea, and Kikuchi is a lefty, so locking in can come a bit later. He's not going to be an ace, but the Mariners could be a pretty exciting team, and he could add to that.

Danny Duffy (Dodgers) – These last two considerations are somewhat speculative as they have both spent considerable time on the injured list this season. Hopefully they will give us a few innings this coming month to help determine their prospects for next year. Duffy is perhaps one of the most intriguing pitchers on this list. The veteran lefty has been a decent, if not spectacular, starting pitcher for several years. His best seasons came in 2014-16. Then this year, a new (and improved) Duffy appeared. He changed his pitch sequencing. His mechanics were smoother and more efficient, leading to a modest bump in velocity. His arm slot was different, which is creating more movement on his pitches. And, he appeared to be getting more and more comfortable prior to going on the injured list in July. Interestingly, the injured Duffy was acquired by the Dodgers at the trade deadline. He is expected back in September, albeit probably working out of the bullpen, but I'm anxious to see a continuation of the transformation in 2022.

Dinelson Lamet (Padres) – Regular readers know about my love for this guy's pure stuff. I touted him heavily upon his arrival in San Diego in 2017 and was giddy with anticipation in the spring of 2018. Unfortunately, he never threw a pitch that year, instead undergoing Tommy John surgery that spring. He's had more elbow issues, but he's back with the Padres now, pitching with limitations as they build up his arm strength and stamina. So far in 2021 he has compiled a modest 3.67 ERA with a poor 1.40 WHIP over just 34 innings. He's on a rehab assignment now, and if he avoids setbacks, he'll join the San Diego bullpen in September, but starting is still his future. Yes, he's a huge injury risk, but his slider is as devastatingly sharp as ever, and if he stays on the mound, he could lead baseball in strikeouts. And, be aware, Lamet is still not a finished product just yet. His release point, overall command and consistency of his secondary stuff are still works in progress, but I see it coming together.

I have a few honorable mentions. Most of these guys are injury related considerations and could therefore face workload restrictions, but they could still be good investments. Kenta Maeda was originally scheduled to be included on the list, but his recent arm issues have me worried. Noah Syndergaard had setbacks in his recovery from Tommy John surgery, but a healthy Thor is potentially a true ace. Achilles' injuries are not typically long-term concerns, yet Mike Soroka has missed most of two seasons with his. I like him in 2022 and beyond. Matt Manning has looked nothing like the pitcher who was very high on my watch list, but don't be surprised if he gets that magic back next season. Andrew Heaney, Luis Patino and Miles Mikolas are additional thoughts.

There you have it – a few arms with a lot of positive indicators. They may or may not be fantasy staff aces, but they could offer exceptional value, and that wins leagues.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• The Dodgers' Walker Buehler will probably go at a price commensurate with his 2021 stats next year, but in his case, I would strongly consider paying that price and maybe a little more. Buehler is already a top 10 pitcher, and as scary as it sounds, I don't think we haven't seen his ceiling yet. I remain a major buyer.
• A's ace Chris Bassitt took a comebacker to the face, and although he avoided serious injury, he required surgery to repair a couple broken bones. They haven't set any timeline for his return, but I think his days of providing fantasy value in 2021 could be over. Watch the standings, and stay tuned for updates.
• The Padres have really been plagued by ineffectiveness, inconsistency and injuries among their pitchers this year. Yu Darvish is almost back, and of note, they dismissed their pitching coach. Sometimes a change like that can provide a dramatic impact. They need a boost soon if the playoffs are going to happen.
• Chris Sale has returned from his Tommy John surgery and given the Red Sox a much-needed boost. Not surprisingly, his command is not in mid-season form, and his velocity is down a couple ticks from his normal fastball average of 94 mph, but he has transitioned a bit and is effective without being overpowering.
• The Cardinals hope they have dodged a bullet. Jack Flaherty missed more than two months with a strained oblique and has made just three starts since returning to the mound. He left that third start back in the third inning, suffering from shoulder stiffness. Luckily, the tests revealed no structural damage.

Endgame Odyssey:

I've seen a couple guys who look like they could be legitimate closers moving forward, and perhaps the top of the list is Seattle's Paul Sewald. I've seen him over the past couple years, but he looks sharper than ever. With Diego Castillo on the IL, I think Seward could have a clear path to locking down the closer's gig. The playoff-hungry Reds activated their best reliver, Tejay Antone, from the IL earlier this week. That was reason to celebrate, but the party lasted just five pitches. Antone left the game after "feeling something" in the elbow that had put him on the shelf for more than two months. In a corresponding move, they DFA'd former closer Sean Doolittle who just hasn't had it this season. The surging Yankees have a shaky Aroldis Chapman back, but they will continue to shuffle, as Zach Britton is now likely out for the season with an elbow injury. Boston's Matt Barnes was one of the best closers in the game up until recently. He has hit a rough stretch allowing 10 runs over his last eight appearances. There has been no mention of injury, but he needs to get his feet back on the ground, so don't be surprised if the Red Sox look to someone else like Hansel Robles or Adam Ottavino temporarily.