East Coast Offense: The Week of the Underdog

This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.

The Week of the Underdog

Here were the point spreads (the market's power rankings, so to speak) for last week's slate of games:

Because so much fantasy analysis - both season-long and DFS - is based on the Vegas point spreads (even if you're not specifically conscious of Vegas or the line, you surely know the Bengals were 8-0, have a strong offense this year and would be likely to score multiple touchdowns against the Texans at home), many of our assumptions in that arena were upended too. (And let's not even get started about arguably the most destructive week ever in Survivor. The only reason it wasn't worse was that most people already got knocked out in a nearly-as-terrible Week 2.)

In fantasy, Jeremy Langford decisively outproduced Todd Gurley, Carson Palmer's output in Seattle dwarfed Aaron Rodgers' numbers at home against the Lions, and LeSean McCoy ran roughshod over the Jets in their own building, while James Starks struggled at home against a 10.5-point underdog.

On one hand, I imagine people were frustrated to leave a lot of production on their benches - I sat Michael Floyd for Willie Snead (zero points) in one league. And a lot of DFS lineups that made so much sense prior to kickoff failed to cash. But this kind of unpredictability is good for the league, and it's good for fantasy because it reveals the limits of our knowledge. Past performance only gets you so far. The resulting uncertainty is due to change, and change is what makes the game interesting.

I want to distinguish this kind of unknowability from the vast amount of arbitrariness that's bad for the league and bad for fantasy. I'm talking about the facemask penalty that put the Jaguars in field-goal range to win the game or the overturn on Odell Beckham's TD catch near the end of the game. Regardless of the validity of those calls (the first was valid, the second not), uncertainty due to non-football factors (referees' judgement of a rule they don't understand, penalties that don't affect the play, unforced fumbles), robs the game of meaning. If the Super Bowl were decided because a taunting foul put a team into field-goal range on the last play, that win would be empty. Everyone would know who actually won the game but for that arbitrary, non-football event, so the winning team would be champion in name only.

By contrast, the Bears throttling the heavily-favored Rams in St. Louis was hard to see coming, but it was due to Chicago's strong play in that game. It says something about Langford and Jay Cutler (and also Nick Foles and the Rams defense.) Getting a game wrong on the merits is eye-opening and meaningful. It helps us re-think our past assumptions, and if we're smart, to question some of our future ones. Losing on a bad bounce or taunting call is frustrating and meaningless. It does nothing to enlighten us and actually calls into question our emotional investment in the game. Which brings me to my second topic...

Does Replay Make the Game Better?

New technology often solves the problems for which it was designed but creates new ones that are unforeseen. For example, it's amazing I can use my cellphone when stuck in traffic to take care of calls, or that if I'm lost I can use Google Maps to find my way. But now, I'm expected to be reachable virtually all the time. If I don't return your call (that calls for a response) within six hours, you have reason to presume that's by choice and not because I didn't receive it. Moreover, if I plan to meet someone out, they more or less used to have to show up on time. Now they can just text and say they're running late or ask if I mind altering the plan. I'm not saying we should give up our phones, but I'm pretty sure people are on balance no happier than they were 25 years ago, and if they are, it's almost certainly not because of their phones.

Similarly, replay solves some legitimate officiating problems - it almost always identifies correctly whether a receiver got both feet in bounds on a catch. But as everyone knows, it's created a whole new set of problems in identifying what a catch actually is. And lest you think this is a rules committee issue, it's really a replay issue because making a play reviewable means there must be specific criteria for the call under review. "I know a catch when I see it," only works for the refs on the field. There must be criteria to overturn it, and that's when you get into nonsense like "made a football move," "became a runner," "controlled it to the ground" and other ill-defined concepts by which obvious catches are ruled incomplete.

But even if we concede on balance replay eliminates more errors than it introduces (and I would), it also disrupts the flow of the game, making it longer and less able to find a rhythm. For example at one point during the Sunday night game, the refs spotted a Russell Wilson third-down run too generously, calling it a first down. Bruce Arians challenged it, there was a review, and he won, so Seattle had fourth and inches. Wilson then handed the ball to the fullback, he was stopped behind the line initially, but turned around, planted his feet and fell backwards toward the line of scrimmage into a crowd of linemen. The refs again spotted the play a first down, Arians challenged again, there was another review, and because it was impossible to tell, the play stood – first down for Seattle, at exactly the spot it was erroneously ruled 10 minutes before.

I've discussed how this 10 minutes multiplied by 20 million viewers costs entire human lives of time and how it changes the way referees call the game (when in doubt they call turnovers on the field because that triggers an automatic review), and when you combine that with the catch rule problems and unreviewability of certain calls like pass interference and holding, it's hard to see how replay, on balance, makes the game better. Can we really say the modern game is a more compelling product than the version of the '70s, '80s or '90s?

Maybe there's just a certain amount of referee error we need to tolerate. That doesn't mean refs shouldn't be replaced if they routinely make bad calls, but an occasional mistake on whether someone had both feet down in bounds or crossed the plane of the goal line might be preferable to all the wasted time, interrupted game flow and absurd catch rules.

Week 10 Observations

• Is the Texans defense suddenly the unit we thought they'd be? It's strange for a team to get torched by the Falcons and Dolphins, then shut down the Bengals in Cincinnati, but teams change - often drastically - over the course of the year.

• It's crazy the Texans are now tied for first place, and with Andrew Luck out for perhaps the rest of the year, they might be the favorite to win the division, though even the Jaguars now have a chance.

•Carson Palmer played a great game in Seattle, recovering from two disastrous strip sacks in the league's most hostile environment and engineering two long drives, despite Michael Floyd, his big play receiver in the game, leaving with a hamstring injury. Of course, on the last drive Andre Ellington foolishly scored a touchdown rather than taking a knee at he one-yard line, and the Seahawks might have come back had they recovered an onside kick.

• It's too bad Floyd got injured because he was having a monster day, and it could have been even bigger had he not let a perfectly thrown 50-yard pass fall through his hands. With Larry Fitzgerald looking like the player he was five years ago, and John Brown playing well when he's been healthy, this could be the best trio in the league come playoff time if Brown and Floyd can get through their ailments.

•Russell Wilson is the master of getting away with intentional grounding. He finally got flagged late in the game but no one throws the ball away during a sack better than him. And he takes a ton of actual sacks too.

• I really don't want to write about the Giants game because I'll sound like a broken record. But this is the third game this season Tom Coughlin has simply gifted away. Consider the Giants had the ball, down one, 1st-and-goal from the Patriots five yard-line with 2:06 left. The Patriots had one timeout left. All the Giants have to do is run three plays. The first one gets the clock to the two-minute warning. The second gets the Patriots to call their final timeout, just under two minutes. The third one gets the clock down to 1:15. They kick a field goal, and the Patriots get the ball with 1:10 or so and no timeouts, down two. That wouldn't end the game, but when you consider how the Patriots needed every second of the clock, the Giants would have vastly increased their chances to win. Of course, the Giants might also have scored a touchdown on one of those runs because it's not especially hard to advance the ball five yards on three tries, and you get closer on each try.

• Incidentally, ill-advised as the play call was, Odell Beckham's target should have been ruled a touchdown. The moronic Mike Carey came on to say first it wasn't a catch because the ball was knocked out at the same time he was getting his foot down (false, the foot was down before it was knocked out), then switched his rationale to Beckham not establishing himself as a runner, even though Beckham was in the end zone – where the hell would he be running? Look at the replay, listen to these half-wits and decide for yourself.

• Even with the botched clock management and the bad call on the Beckham TD catch, the Patriots overcame a dropped interception right in the hands of safety Landon Collins, converted a 4th-and-10, got Danny Amendola the ball short of field-goal range, but he darted for another five yards, and made a 54-yard kick. It's amazing this billion-dollar organization (the Giants) both tolerates these kinds of gaffes from its coach every other week and is still in first place.

• I loved the deep throw to Odell Beckham on the first play from scrimmage. The Giants should call every game like they're playing the Patriots.

• The Giants defense played better than it had in weeks, in part due to the pressure from Jason Pierre-Paul, who as of a few weeks ago, wasn't even a sure thing to play this year.

•Dwayne Harris was a big pickup for the Giants. Not only has he played well as a third receiver (sometimes a second, even), but he's the league's top punt returner. And with Victor Cruz out for the year, Harris' role isn't likely to shrink, Hakeem Nicks' signing notwithstanding.

•Julian Edelman might be out for the year with a broken foot. With both him and Dion Lewis gone, someone has to fill the short-pass-catcher void. Danny Amendola is the obvious candidate, but maybe James White takes on a bigger role going forward. Brandon LaFell should see more targets too.

• The Packers performance at home against the terrible Lions defense was troubling. Davante Adams had 79 yards on 21 targets. That's not even good for a running back. Randall Cobb (10 targets, 53 yards) was nearly as bad. It's amazing the ways Detroit still tried to give the game away, but the Packers deserved to lose.

• Maybe Eddie Lacy's not the problem because James Starks, given the starting job, managed 2.8 YPC himself.

• One of the best and oddest sequences I've watched was the Packers throwing an incomplete pass on 3rd-and-2, near midfield and committing a hold, Jim Caldwell declining the penalty (assuming Mike McCarthy would punt), McCarthy leaving his offense on the field on 4th-and-2 and Caldwell changing his mind (and the refs letting him) to accept the penalty, making it 3rd-and-12.

•Peyton Manning broke Brett Favre's record for passing yards then played so poorly he was benched. His numbers (5-of-20 for 35 yards, four interceptions, two sacks) were beyond belief. We now know Manning has a torn plantar fascia in his foot, and it's possible we've seen the last of him.

•Charcandrick West didn't do much with his 23 carries but he found the end zone and wound up with a huge day thanks to an 80-yard TD reception. He'll get a lot of work in the Jamaal Charles role in Andy Reid's offense.

•Adrian Peterson finally broke out after a pedestrian first half of the season. I don't know whether this is a sign of things to come, but his best stretch in 2012, when he returned from the torn ACL, was in the second half of the year.

• It was odd Landry Jones started the game, given Ben Roethlisberger proved he was completely healthy and put up huge numbers once Jones went down. Note that DeAngelo Williams did very little against one of the league's worst run defenses. Sometimes, when a team has a known weakness, it'll make extra effort to shore up that area at the expense of a another one. Of course, it would make sense for Mike Pettine to focus on stopping Williams with Jones under center. Once Roethlisberger got into the game, Williams was the poison they should have picked, though.

• With Roethlisberger healthy, Antonio Brown is again the No. 1 receiver. Martavis Bryant is perhaps No. 1 on a per-play basis, and if he gets 10 targets regularly, look out.

•Johnny Manziel threw for 372 yards on 8.2 YPA with only one pick. He did take six sacks, but apparently he's shown enough for the Browns to name him the starter.

• It looks like Travis Benjamin and Gary Barnidge can produce no matter who's under center.

• Talk about gifting away a game. The Eagles were dominating early but missed a chip shot field goal, got a punt blocked, got behind, lost Sam Bradford to injury, then watched Mark Sanchez throw a terrible interception in the red zone.

•Jay Ajayi looks explosive and should be involved going forward. But Lamar Miller has been good for the last year and a half and isn't in danger of losing the bulk of the job. Miller is also seeing a ton of targets in the passing game.

•Jarvis Landry is one of the least efficient receivers in the league, but the opportunities are there almost every week.

• A week after breaking out, Jordan Matthews went 3-for-21 on five targets

• The Saints defense made Kirk Cousins look like Joe Montana, and Cousins' day would have been much bigger had Washington not taken its foot off the gas. Whoever is facing the Saints defense is arguably the best fantasy quarterback in the NFL going forward.

•Brandin Cooks is starting to earn his expensive draft slot the last few weeks. A terrible defense is a nice tail wind.

•Kamar Aiken saw 14 targets, while speedster Chris Givens saw seven. Neither was especially efficient, but Joe Flacco has to throw to someone.

•Blake Bortles did very little against what's been a terrible Ravens pass defense. I don't think it was him so much as Baltimore playing closer to its true level after the bye.

•Jeremy Langford is playing so well, I can't see the Bears rushing Matt Forte back. Oddly both he and backup tight end Zach Miller led the team in receiving while Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett did almost nothing.

•Todd Gurley didn't go off, but he scored a touchdown and, like Langford, led his team in both rushing and receiving. I wonder how long it's been since running backs led both teams in rushing and receiving in the same game.